Mitchell – SA 2014

ALP 2.4%

Incumbent MP
Alan Sibbons, since 2010.

Geography
Southern Adelaide. The seat covers Sheidow Park, Trott Park, Old Reynella, Seaview Downs, Dover Gardens, Seacombe Heights, Seacombe Gardens and Sturt, and parts of Darlington, Bedford Park, Clovelly Park, Mitchell Park, Oaklands Park and Warradale.

Map of Mitchell's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Mitchell’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Mitchell retained most of its boundaries, losing part of Marion to Elder. The margin was increased from 2.1% to 2.4%.

History
Mitchell has existed since 1970, and has been dominated by the ALP for most of that time.

Ronald Payne held the seat from 1970 until 1989, when he was replaced by another Labor MP, Paul Holloway.

In 1993, Holloway lost the seat to the Liberal Party’s Colin Caudell. Holloway was appointed to the South Australian Legislative Council in 1995, serving until 2011. Caudell went on to serve as a minister in the Rann government.

After one term, Caudell lost in 1997 to the ALP’s Kris Hanna. Hanna was re-elected in 2002, but in 2003 resigned from the ALP and joined the South Australian Greens.

Hanna was planning to run for re-election as a Green in 2006, but resigned from the Greens in February 2006, running for re-election as an independent.

At the 2006 election, the ALP’s Rosemary Clancy polled over 40% of the primary vote, with Hanna second on 24%, but Hanna benefited from very strong preferences and won the seat with 50.6% of the two-party-preferred vote.

At the 2010 election, Hanna increased his primary vote to 28%, and the ALP vote fell to less than 34% thanks to a 9% swing. Despite the shift in primary votes, Hanna lost due to an increased Liberal primary vote. Hanna fell into third place by a 149-vote margin, and Labor’s Alan Sibbons won the seat with a 2.1% margin over the Liberal candidate.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Alan Sibbons is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Corey Wingard. The Greens are running Simon Roberts-Thomson. Former independent MP Kris Hanna is running again as an independent. Family First are running Barbara Bishop.

Assessment
Mitchell is on paper a very marginal seat, but the 2010 race was very different to what would be expected in 2014. The combined vote for ex-Labor independent Hanna and Sibbons was over 60%, and Sibbons should benefit from a new personal vote and a return of some voters, and this could help him buck the broader trend.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Sibbons ALP 7,545 33.9 -9.1
Peta McCance LIB 6,386 28.7 +6.4
Kris Hanna IND 6,237 28.0 +7.7
Jeremy Miller GRN 1,125 5.1 +1.3
Colin Gibson FF 950 4.3 -1.7

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Sibbons ALP 11,597 52.1
Peta McCance LIB 10,646 47.9

 

 

Polling booths in Mitchell at the 2010 state election. North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling booths in Mitchell at the 2010 state election. North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two areas: north and south. The south covers Reynella and Sheidow Park, with the rest of the electorate included in the north.

The ALP did better in the south, with 37%. The Liberal candidate narrowly outpolled Hanna – 27% to 26%. In the North, Hanna narrowly outpolled the ALP’s Sibbons on primary votes, while the Liberal Party polled better in the north than the south, despite coming third.

On a two-party basis, the ALP won a slim 50.1% majority in the north and a larger 54.5% majority in the south.

Voter group IND % LIB % ALP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
South 26.20 27.14 37.11 8,682 53.26
North 31.78 29.16 31.04 7,620 46.74
Other votes 23.94 30.19 34.21 4,700
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes at the 2010 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Kris Hanna at the 2010 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Kris Hanna at the 2010 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Kris Hanna is running again, as a Nick Xenophon-aligned independent. With the vote Xenophon got last September (outpolling Labor statewide), this will be interesting – could be a repeat of 2006.

  2. I’m pretty sure Xenophon backed Hanna at both of the last two elections as well though, so it would be nothing new.

  3. Most interesting seat?

    Cory Wingard is a high profile candidate has a public profile as a sports reporter on the tube. Yet Sibbons should benefit from a sophmore surge. What factor will Mr X play? Who will Kris Hanna preference?

  4. My prediction: Kris Hanna recontesting means his preferences will be crucial, although the general swing to the Liberals should get them over the line here.

Comments are closed.