Lockyer – QLD 2017

LNP vs ON 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Ian Rickuss, since 2004.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Lockyer covers rural areas between Toowoomba and Ipswich. The seat covers the Lockyer Valley local government area and southern parts of the Somerset council area. The seat covers the towns of Laidley, Gatton, Lowood and Helidon.

Redistribution
Lockyer’s western territory (the Lockyer Valley council area) remained unchanged, but there were significant changes at its eastern end. Lockyer previously covered the southern rural parts of the City of Ipswich, but these areas were transferred to Scenic Rim, in exchange for Lockyer gaining the southern tip of the Somerset council area from Ipswich West. I have estimated the LNP margin against One Nation at 1.2%, but One Nation came a distant third in the eastern parts of the electorate, so this estimate relies on preference projections in that area.


History

The seat of Lockyer first existed from 1888 to 1932, and has existed continuously since 1950. The modern seat has never been held by the Labor Party.

The seat was held from 1950 to 1980 by Liberal Party members, and was won in 1980 by the National Party’s Tony Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald held the seat throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but in 1998 lost to One Nation’s Peter Prenzler.

Prenzler left One Nation in 1999 to found the City Country Alliance. In 2001, Prenzler lost to the new One Nation candidate, Bill Flynn.

Flynn became leader of One Nation in the Queensland Parliament following the 2001 election, and held the seat for one term before losing in 2004.

The seat has been held since 2004 by Ian Rickuss, who held the seat first for the National Party and for the LNP since the 2008 merger. Rickuss easily saw off a challenge from Katter’s Australian Party in 2012, and then narrowly held on against Pauline Hanson in 2015. Hanson came within 114 votes of winning Lockyer.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ian Rickuss is not running for re-election.

Assessment
The presence of One Nation makes this seat hard to predict. The candidacy of Pauline Hanson was a unique factor which can’t be replicated, now that she has been elected to the Senate. The party’s vote has shot up across Queensland, and you’d expect Lockyer to be a key target, but we don’t have good information about where these votes are coming from.

2015 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Ian Rickuss Liberal National 10,25933.7-18.334.7
Pauline HansonOne Nation8,13226.7+26.725.0
Steve Leese Labor 7,65225.2+7.526.7
David NeuendorfKatter’s Australian Party2,1116.9-16.96.1
Clare Rudkin Greens 1,1903.9-2.63.8
Craig GunnisPalmer United Party1,0683.5+3.52.7
Others0.9
Informal4761.5

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Redist
Ian Rickuss Liberal National 13,23050.251.6
Pauline HansonOne Nation13,11649.848.4
Exhausted4,06613.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Lockyer have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The ‘east’ covers booths previously contained in the seat of Ipswich West, and contained in the Somerset council area, while the remainder is contained within Lockyer Valley council area.

The Liberal National Party vote ranged from 30.6% in the centre to 38.1% in the east.

Labor’s vote ranged from over 40% in the east to only 16% in the west.

One Nation polled over 30% in the centre, but only polled 12.6% in the east.

Voter groupLNP prim %ALP prim %ON prim %Total votes% of votes
Central30.622.932.310,58138.3
East38.140.712.64,65116.8
West37.616.127.64,31315.6
Other votes36.729.421.38,11629.3

Election results in Lockyer at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between LNP vs One Nation two-candidate-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and One Nation primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.

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