Mount Ommaney – Queensland 2015

LNP 16.48%

Incumbent MP
Tarnya Smith, since 2012.

Geography
Brisbane. Mount Ommaney covers the southwestern Brisbane suburbs of Corinda, Darra, Oxley, Jindalee, Sinnamon Park, Mount Ommaney, Jamboree Heights, Middle Park, Westlake and Riverhills.

History
The seat of Mount Ommaney has existed since the 1992 election, and it has generally gone with the party of government.

The ALP’s Peter Pyke won the seat in 1992. He lost in 1995 to the Liberal Party’s Bob Harper.

Harper lost in 1998 to Labor candidate Julie Attwood. She was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009.

Attwood retired in 2012, and her seat was won by LNP candidate Tarnya Smith with a 21.3% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
The LNP margin in Mount Ommaney is quite large, and there are other seats on smaller margins that could give Labor its majority, but this seat was Labor-held until 2012 and the massive 21% swing suggests that the seat is capable of swinging back very strongly. This seat could be in play.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tarnya Smith Liberal National 15,781 57.30 +16.98
Ben Marczyk Labor 7,086 25.73 -21.51
Jenny Mulkearns Greens 2,694 9.78 -0.20
Douglas Newson Katter’s Australian 1,169 4.24 +4.24
Jordan Brown Family First 452 1.64 +1.64
Rex Schmith Independent 360 1.31 +1.31

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tarnya Smith Liberal National 16,773 66.48 +21.27
Ben Marczyk Labor 8,457 33.52 -21.27
Polling places in Mount Ommaney at the 2012 Queensland state election. Corinda in green, Jindalee in blue, Oxley in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mount Ommaney at the 2012 Queensland state election. Corinda in green, Jindalee in blue, Oxley in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Ommaney have been divided into three parts, based on the key suburbs of Corinda, Jindalee and Oxley.

The LNP’s primary vote ranged from 50.9% in Corinda to 61% in Jindalee. On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP vote ranged from 60.8% in Oxley to 69% in Jindalee.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 24% in Jindalee to 30.5% in Oxley.

The Greens came third in Mount Ommaney. The Greens vote was much higher in Corinda at 15%, compared to 8.8% in Jindalee and 9.9% in Oxley.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Jindalee 60.95 23.95 8.76 69.32 12,935 46.96
Oxley 51.49 30.55 9.87 60.79 5,696 20.68
Corinda 50.93 27.58 15.01 61.66 2,578 9.36
Other votes 57.65 24.27 9.66 67.66 6,333 22.99
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mount Ommaney at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mount Ommaney at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Mount Ommaney at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Mount Ommaney at the 2012 Queensland state election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. I noticed that there were Labor information stalls on both days of the weekend at Corinda Shopping centre with no LNP stalls at the same shopping centre. Furthermore, a relative of mine who resides in this electorate participated in a telephone survey about voting intentions in this seat.

    Is the LNP complacent about their chances retaining this seat?

  2. I live in seat and was polled over the weekend. This and the fact LNP has pork barrelled an $80 million announcement suggets it might be in play. Labor campaign much more active than LNP. Probably a bridge too far for Labor but keep an eye on it

  3. While the state swing will probably be big, I don’t think it is likely that this seat will fall. The $80m Sumner road project is a vote winner here. It will be interesting, however as Smith will have to win on primary to hold the seat as the green preferences will flow to labor faster than to the lnp, and the pup vote will be very low.

    One to watch on election night but dont expect a change here.

  4. I mean this with the greatest respect because I’m sure she’s a lovely person, but judging by the age and choice of the Labor candidate, I think it’s obvious Labor don’t think they can win this. The margin is too big. Best of luck to her though, as a Labor man I’d be happy for Labor to pick up as many seats as possible. Go Jess.

  5. Yesterday I noticed that there were again more Labor information stalls at the shopping centres and main roads in the eastern part of the electorate.

    It is interesting that both Campbell Newman and Annastacia Palaszczuk were in the electorate on the same day with their candidates.

    At this stage I agree with the previous comments suggesting that Tarnya Smith will hold this seat for the LNP with a considerably reduced majority.

    However, if the polls and momentum suggest a late swing to Labor in the final week of the campaign then this will certainly be a seat to watch on election night.

  6. I couldn’t find the age of the Labor candidate, but she’s married with two kids. I’d guess early 30s which I wouldn’t think would be a concern to any voter.

  7. I noticed that Ben has calculated ALP vote for the Oxley booths 51,49%. to LNP . The demography of this electorate must have certainly changed. I worked Oxley SS for Clarissa Weedon DLP candidate for Sherwood when still a school boy and was spat on by ALP extremists when standing in pouring rain at the gate. Only booth Where I vcan remember passing how to votes to drivers Parking was inside the school grounds. THIs was probably the 1969 Queensland election). At a later stage I worked Oxley RSL (Hall at Oxley Station now long gone) and this was the only time when I did not have a pleasant day with opposition party workers. A pair of Trade UNion ALP heavies gave me a vey hard time.

    Fortunately these days have gone although I do recall a having candidate in Chatsworth having to deal with a frackas where a DLP worker had thrown a Green over the fence. I

    I have seen LNP, ALP, DLP, instructions to booth workers and have even written KAP’s and all say much the same thing the majority of people working booths are of good character and are closer in temperament to the opposition workers than they are to the voters who just take a HTV without thanks and treat party workers nuisance but are lost if they had to vote without HTV cards.

    I remember at a booth in Geelong a Liberal voter coming back out of the booth holding her ballot paper and saying that the name of the premier was not on the ballot paper and who should she vote for. She had refused all HTV on the way in rudely. I got the question because I was sheltering under a Liberal umbrella whilst handing out DLP HTV.

    This was the worst climatic day for an election Rain from morning till night. Wind for most of day. Fortunately there was a bar down the street and I could dose up on Rum to keep me going.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  8. No the labour girl is about 24, I would say a teen pregnancy. Have any of you spoken to her? Very soft spoken, not the type of person to make any real change in parliament I don’t think. Plus everything I asked her about she just giggled which left me very concerned.
    Liberal has my vote, road upgrades by tarnya are too good to switch parties and have that stalled by labour. Will be a good seat to watch but liberal have it all the way.

  9. No way can labour win this. I’m sorry but if you’ve spoken to Ms Pugh you would know why. I’m sure she lovely too, but you want someone with a little grunt. She looks very sweet, like a car topper. But not to stand up for your community.

  10. The Labor candidate is 29 turning 30 this year. I don’t understand why age has anything to do with political potential?

  11. Is it just me or have some votes been removed here? I recall both candidates being over 12000 when I last checked. The Poll Bludger has it as ALP 12079 LNP 12541. Meanwhile, ABC and the QEC both have ALP 11824 LNP 12348.

  12. Hopefully the LNP holds this. I was getting the train from Darra one day and she was there to her credit unlike my Local Labor MP. however, she really couldn’t give me any clear elaborations on anything she was telling me. Jess needs this loss to go away, reflect and have a run for Jamboree at Council level where I think she would be very well suited.

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