Redcliffe – Queensland 2012

ALP 5.6%

Incumbent MP
Lillian van Litsenburg, since 2006.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Redcliffe covers most of the Redcliffe peninsula in Moreton Bay local council area, specifically the suburbs of Kippa-ring, Redcliffe, Woody Point, Clontarf, Margate and Scarborough, as well as Moreton Island.

History
The seat of Redcliffe has existed since the 1960 election. It was dominated by conservative parties until 1989, and has been dominated by the ALP ever since.

The seat was first won in 1960 by Jim Houghton. He was first elected as an independent and after a brief stint as a Liberal he joined the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat until his retirement in 1979.

The seat was won at the 1979 by-election by Liberal candidate Terry White. White was appointed to the ministry in 1980. He became the leader of a group of Liberal MPs critical of Joh Bjelke-Petersen and their own party’s closeness to the Nationals. In 1983 he led a Liberal rebellion which resulted in his election as Liberal leader and the dissolution of the coalition. In the ensuing election a majority of Liberals lost their seats and the Nationals won a majority in their own right.

White stepped down as Liberal leader following the disastrous 1983 election and held Redcliffe until his retirement in 1989.

Ray Hollis won Redcliffe for the ALP in 1989. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1998 and retired in 2005. This triggered the 2005 Redcliffe by-election. At the ensuing by-election the ALP lost the seat to Liberal candidate Terry Rogers, who won with an 8.4% swing.

Rogers only held the seat for one year, and lost at the 2006 election to the ALP’s Lillian van Litsenburg. She retained the seat at the 2009 state election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Lillian van Litsenburg is running for re-election. The LNP is running Scott Driscoll.

Political situation
Redcliffe has a history of being held by conservative parties and when you consider the small 5.6% margin and the recent history of large swings in the seat, it is certainly vulnerable to the LNP in 2012.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 12,202 43.0 -6.5
Bill Gollan LNP 9,727 34.3 -4.9
Peter Houston IND 3,953 13.9 +13.9
Pete Johnson GRN 1,737 6.1 -4.3
Philip Cramer FF 743 2.6 +2.6

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 13,943 55.6 -0.5
Bill Gollan LNP 11,146 44.4 +0.5

Booth breakdown
Booths in Redcliffe have been divided into four areas: from north to south along the coast, these are Scarborough, Redcliffe, and South, with Kippa-Ring lying inland.

The ALP outpolled the LNP in the South, Redcliffe and Kippa-Ring, with a margin of over 10% in each area. The LNP outpolled the ALP by 1.7% in Scarborough. Independent candidate Peter Houston polled over 10% in all four areas, varying from 15.3% in Scarborough to 13.4% in Redcliffe.

Polling booths in Redcliffe at the 2009 state election. Scarborough in blue, Redcliffe in green, South in red, Kippa-Ring in orange.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % IND % Total votes % of votes
South 43.8 32.8 14.0 6,576 23.2
Redcliffe 45.6 31.9 13.4 5,370 18.9
Scarborough 37.9 39.6 15.3 5,011 17.7
Kippa-Ring 44.5 32.0 15.1 4,701 16.6
Other votes 43.0 35.4 12.5 6,704 23.6
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2009 state election.
Primary votes for independent Peter Houston in Redcliffe at the 2009 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Lillian Van Litsenburg – for whatever reason, is running again for Redcliffe. Even after her recent scandal with the courier mail. She is regularly getting her minions to campaign for her.

  5. I agree Anton. This is a case of an inflated ALP margin. The current MP has not set the world on fire, should have been a minister by now and now wants to be re-elected to the back bench of a destroyed opposition? No, that won’t fly. I predict LNP gain early.

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