Morayfield – Queensland 2012

ALP 9.1%

Incumbent MP
Mark Ryan, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Morayfield lies in Moreton Bay local government area between Brisbane and Caboolture. It covers Morayfield and parts of Caboolture, Burpengary and Narangba.

History
The seat of Morayfield was newly created at the 2009 election. It was won by Labor candidate Mark Ryan.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Mark Ryan is running for re-election. The LNP is running Darren Grimwade. Katter’s Australian Party is running Stephen Beck.

Political situation
Morayfield is held by the ALP by 9.1%, which would be overturned if current polling was translated into a uniform swing.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark Ryan ALP 12,570 48.4 -6.0
Fiona Brydon LNP 8,581 33.1 -1.0
Lynette Devereaux IND 2,898 11.2 +11.2
Therese O’Brien GRN 1,900 7.3 -4.1

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark Ryan ALP 13,839 59.1 -1.6
Fiona Brydon LNP 9,565 40.9 +1.6

Booth breakdown
Booths in Morayfield have been divided into two areas: Burpengary in the south and Morayfield in the north.

The ALP polled around 48-50% in both areas, with the LNP polling 35.6% in Burpengary and 30% in Morayfield. Independent candidate Devereaux polled 14% in Morayfield and 7% in Burpengary.

Polling booths in Morayfield at the 2009 state election. Burpengary in green, Morayfield in orange.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % IND % Total votes % of votes
Burpengary 49.8 35.6 7.3 10,381 40.0
Morayfield 48.6 30.1 14.2 9,882 38.1
Other votes 45.6 33.6 13.0 5,686 21.9
Labor primary votes in Morayfield at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Morayfield at the 2009 state election.
Primary votes for independent Lynette Devereaux in Morayfield at the 2009 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. I think Mark Ryan will be a one term wonder.
    Supported by many in the district as being somewhat of an up and coming leader he has fallen foul to party politics and failed on every occasion to stand up for those that elected him.
    A big disappointment and we hope that he learns from this experience. Dont be surprised if there is a major campaign against him by those that supported him in 2009

  2. Agreed Tony, this seat is next door to where I live, Mark is still considered a future Labor leader, although I expect every vote to count in Morayfield. Darren Grimwade is working incredibly hard and with Wyatt Roy’s help federally, it could be an upset for Labor.

  4. I think many young voters may have seen Mark Ryan as “one of us”, as he uses campaign posters of him taken most obviously long ago, despite now being 30.
    We now look towards Wyatt Roy, who enjoys massive support from the young, and his endorsement of Darren Grimwade.
    We know all too well of Anna Bligh’s toxidity, and have no memory of a time when Labor wasn’t ruining our state.

    I am 18 and have close-to-no memory of the political environment pre 2004.
    I will be voting for Darren Grimwade, and would be more than happy if he were to exceed expectations and win – he’s got a mammoth margin to fight.

  5. *yawns*

    Probability: 90% Liberal troll forgetting how 18 yr olds actually talk because it’s so long ago, 10% one very confused kid. Try harder, this ain’t the Courier Mail’s comment section.

Comments are closed.