LNP 7.6%
Incumbent MP
Ian Rickuss, since 2004.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Lockyer covers rural areas between Toowoomba and Ipswich. The seat covers the Lockyer Valley local government area and the neighbouring council areas of Ipswich, Logan and Scenic Rim. The seat covers the towns of Grandchester, Laidley, Gatton and Helidon.
History
The seat of Lockyer first existed from 1888 to 1932, and has existed continuously since 1950. The modern seat has never been held by the Labor Party.
The seat was held from 1950 to 1980 by Liberal Party members, and was won in 1980 by the National Party’s Tony Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald held the seat throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but in 1998 lost to One Nation’s Peter Prenzler.
Prenzler left One Nation in 1999 to found the City Country Alliance. In 2001, Prenzler lost to the new One Nation candidate, Bill Flynn.
Flynn became leader of One Nation in the Queensland Parliament following the 2001 election, and held the seat for one term before losing in 2004.
The seat has been held since 2004 by Ian Rickuss, who held the seat first for the National Party and for the LNP since the 2008 merger.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ian Rickuss is running for re-election. Katter’s Australian Party is running David Neuendorf.
- David Neuendorf (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Clare Rudkin (Greens)
- Ian Rickuss (Liberal National)
- James Wilson (Labor)
Political situation
This seat is considered reasonably safe for the LNP. There is no serious chance of the ALP challenging Rickuss’ hold on the seat, however the seat has a strong history for One Nation and could be a strong area for Bob Katter’s new party.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Rickuss | LNP | 13,761 | 53.6 | +7.5 |
| John Kelly | ALP | 9,667 | 37.6 | -2.4 |
| Emma Hine | GRN | 2,267 | 8.8 | +2.9 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Rickuss | LNP | 14,193 | 57.6 | +4.2 |
| John Kelly | ALP | 10,444 | 42.4 | -4.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Lockyer have been divided into three areas. Booths in Lockyer Valley LGA were divided into Central and West, and booths in the other three LGAs were grouped as ‘West’.
The LNP’s vote varied from 62.8% in the west to 54% in the centre and 44.9% in the east. While the LNP easily outpolled the ALP in two of those regions, the LNP only outpolled the ALP by three votes in the eastern arm of the seat.
| Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 54.1 | 38.4 | 7.5 | 10,383 | 40.4 |
| East | 44.9 | 44.9 | 10.2 | 6,059 | 23.6 |
| West | 62.8 | 29.1 | 8.1 | 4,115 | 16.0 |
| Other votes | 55.2 | 34.3 | 10.5 | 5,138 | 20.0 |
This used to be ultra-safe for the Nats, but in recent years it has become increasingly urbanised and hence Labor’s support has improved notably. Did One Nation’s good performance reflect an Ipswich influence? The day of the populist right has probably passed here however.
My prediction: Katter’s Australian Party could pose a significant challenge here.
If the people of Lockyer re-elect that buffoon Rickass, God help us all. I fully support Bob and his candidate as feel he will be looking after the people in the bush.
LNP retain, with KAP and ALP closely fighting it out for 2nd.
This will go down to the wire, with many of Neuendorf’s supporters from the western side of the electorate giving him the nod. With Labor supporting the Katter Party in the Lockyer this is going to be tough for LNP to retain.