ALP 4.5%
Incumbent MP
Geoff Wilson, since 1998.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ferny Grove covers southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA and a small part of the City of Brisbane, on the northwestern fringe of Brisbane. The seat covers the suburbs of Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills, Arana Hills, Upper Kedron and parts of Keperra and semi-rural areas to the north-west, including Samford Village, Closeburn, Mount Glorious and Mount Nebo.
History
Ferny Grove has existed since 1992, and has always been held by the ALP.
It was first won in 1992 by Glen Milliner, who had held the neighbouring seat of Everton since 1977. He became a minister in the Goss government in 1989. He continued to serve as a minister until the government lost power in 1996, and he retired from Parliament in 1998.
The seat has been held since 1998 by Geoff Wilson, also of the ALP. Wilson has served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments since 2004.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Geoff Wilson is running for re-election. The LNP is again running 2009 candidate Dale Shuttleworth.
- Howard Nielsen (Greens)
- Geoff Wilson (Labor)
- Dale Shuttleworth (Liberal National)
Political situation
Ferny Grove has always been held by the ALP but with a margin of 4.5% could certainly be under threat from the LNP in 2012.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Geoff Wilson | ALP | 12,325 | 44.3 | -7.1 |
| Dale Shuttleworth | LNP | 10,941 | 39.3 | +9.4 |
| Howard Nielsen | GRN | 3,884 | 13.9 | +2.3 |
| Mark White | FF | 698 | 2.5 | -4.6 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Geoff Wilson | ALP | 14,309 | 54.5 | -7.6 |
| Dale Shuttleworth | LNP | 11,950 | 45.5 | +7.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ferny Grove have been divided into three areas. Most booths lie in the southeastern corner of the seat, and these have been divided into Ferny Grove and East, with the remainder of the seat grouped as West.
The ALP outpolled the LNP by a margin of over 10% in Ferny Grove and the seat, while the LNP outpolled the ALP by almost 15% in the West.
Polling booths in Ferny Grove at the 2009 state election. East in green, Ferny Grove in orange, West in blue.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Ferny Grove | 48.1 | 37.5 | 11.7 | 10,656 | 38.3 |
| West | 30.9 | 45.5 | 21.9 | 5,880 | 21.1 |
| East | 49.4 | 36.7 | 11.3 | 5,751 | 20.1 |
| Other votes | 45.7 | 38.7 | 12.6 | 5,561 | 20.0 |
Labor primary votes in Ferny Grove at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Ferny Grove at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes in Ferny Grove at the 2009 state election.
What’s the 46% Greens booth in the far west?
Mount Nebo
Jason Somerville is running for the Queensland Party here
Reachtel have a small poll on this seat:
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/geoff-wilson-in-trouble-in-ferny-grove
Small sample size, but it suggests a 15% swing… painful.
I wish someone from the Katter party was running.
Why does Dale Shutteworth believe that he, quite prematurely has won the seat of Ferny Grove? My belief is that the LNP feel that the mood for change is a vote for Can Do. This is to their detriment. I truly believe that the minor parties will do far better than what most think. Be it DLSP, Qld Party, Family First, Katters Party, Greens or Independents, the just vote 1 tactic may be a bridge too far for the LNP.
Mr Wilson, if I were you I would also jump from the sinking ship as the swing is too much to stomach. After the latest Health scandal, the target on you has never been larger.
Is qld party still around? I thought they were all katter party now? What is difference?
Dale certainly does not think he has “prematurely” won the seat of Ferny Grove ‘lals’, he has never taken this seat for granted, especially considering the high vote for the Greens. We all know how they preference, and therefore the 4.4% margin is deflated. Ferny Grove is tough territory, and Dale who is a great guy, and a tireless worker will not give up. Geoff Wilson (who is a nice and decent person), is a formidable opponent and Dale certainly does not think this is a walk in the park.
Well, my first day back at work in 2012, and this blog reminds me of the task ahead. I have certainly not considered that the Ferny Grove electorate is in the bag for me. I will continue to door knock the electorate (I have already knocked over 5000 homes) and attend as many community events as possible between now and the one Saturday afternoon that counts. I will however continue to work full time until the election Writ is issued which makes the task of campaigning somewhat of a challenge.
To “Lals” and “Phil”, I hope that if you see me out and about, at one of the community corners or information booths, you stop by for a chat where I’d be more than happy to overview my plans for the area. It would be great to meet you both.
It seems that we have a real candidate on our blog. Dale, may I say that it is most reassuring to have you on here to answer our concerns directly. I welcome you aboard. What I would like to know however is what the people of Ferny Grove are going to get from you. The people do not want non performers such as Michael Crandon in the electorate of Coomera. Tell us all why you should get our vote?
As you can see, from the delay in response, I am not an active ‘blogger’, but I am happy to respond when I feel the urge to address particular issues. As far as what the people of Ferny Grove can expect from me, this is difficult to answer in a way that doesn’t sound like a long cliche riddled response, suffice to say however that I will continue to do all I can, when I can to ensure that the local area is well represented and benefits from my being there.
I would just like to say all the best from here in Perth Mr. Shuttleworth, you sound like you will make a good representative for the people of Ferny Grove. You’d have my vote if I was living there.
Dale, unfortunately that is not a strong message that you send. This is the same sentence that I think that I have heard every candidate ever utter! The question is, what are you going to do for the people of Ferny Grove? Please do not insult our intelligence here with a catchy ‘very used by’ phrase! Local issues please? How will you deliver to the people of Ferny Grove?
Dale……. are you there……. can you please answer my question again? What local issues will you address for the people of Ferny Grove?
I have highlighted areas where I will be fighting for locals, such as lighting improvements at a couple of local sporting venues, as part of our “Get in The Game” policy, I will fight for a number of local road improvements to ease congestion and increase safety at rail level crossings. There is need for significant improvements at Keperra station, bikeways, and other infrastructure needs that I have raised and will continue to champion on locals behalf. The funds available will be scarce until the states finances are bought back under control and the credit rating returned to AAA.
OK Dale, thankyou for that.
Mate unfortunately, you have confused me with your rant about AAA ratings…… DO YOU SERIOUSLY MEAN THAT YOU CAN DO NOTHING FOR THE PEOPLE OF FERNY GROVE UNTIL THIS STATE HAS A AAA CREDIT RATING?????
What is your point in being a possilble future representative of the people in Ferny Griove if you cannot improve the status quo?
What gets me is the fact that you quite happily carry on that you are the alternative representative to Geoff Wilson M.P, the current Health Minister.
DON’T GIVE US RUBBISH ABOUT IT ALL BEING A HARD FIGHT AHEAD. YOU PRESUME YOU HAVE WON.
You proudly espouse that you are LnP, both this time around and in 2009. Prior to that you were FAMILY FIRST. Not enough votes there so you paid the sum of literally thousands of dollars to gain pre slection for the LnP. Big difference in policy.
I am beginning to believe that you are just a career wannabe polly, with a real desire to make a difference to your living standards and not for the people of your presumed electorate.
Give it one term.
Of course you will get 60% of the vote on March 24. Not because of you. Because of the desire for change. Humphry B Bear could have got the same as you!
DALE SHUTTLEWORTH IS NOT ABOUT FERNY GROVE.
DALE SHUTLLEWORTH IS ABOUT SELF PROMOTION.
YOU ARE NOT ABOUT REPRESENTATION FOR YOUR ELECTORATE.
IF YOU ARE FOR YOUR ELECTORATE AND NOT MERE OPPORTUNISM – PROVE US WRONG IN YOUR FIRST TERM!!!!!
WE HAVE OUR DOUBTS.
I’m starting to wonder whether “Terrance” is actually some LNP stooge trying to discredit the Katter Party by making them all look like deluded nutters…
Surely no-one could honestly think that borderline-incoherent rants with lots of childish name calling and sooking and BIG CAPITAL LETTERS EVERY OTHER SENTENCE would convince people to support their party.
Hahahahahaha,
Mdm you are very humorous. I’d love to have a beer with you sometime to discuss the finer things about your party. Just dont wear your can do tshirt as it probably needs a wash after wearing it to bed every night.
Lets just say that I would never be seen dead supporting the biggest joke of a party that this state has ever seen.
Capitals work for me because they express my frustration. Do you notice how I dont over pronounce the ‘n’ in LnP. That is very clever dont you think?
Since I am neither a resident of Queensland nor a member of the LNP you would appear to have got that wrong too.
If you have arguments, put them sensibly and rationally. But as you are, you look like a cross between a two year old stamping their feet and an eleven year old girl trying to insult someone on Facebook. You look like a total tool carrying on like this and are no doubt doing more harm than good to the cause you claim to support.
I respect Mr Katter personally for his longevity of service and for his no-bullshit approach to politics….but if you’re representative of the KAP I wouldn’t touch them with the proverbial barge pole.
Dale, I admire your persistence in pursuing your ambition to be in parliament for so long. Many other people would not have your patience or drive. I am, however, surprised that after five elections you’re unable to articulate WHY you are running and what you want to achieve.
OK Terence, Enough is enough. leave your rubbish and personal attacks at the door. You seem to be commenting on every seat.
go elsehere please
My prediction: LNP gain
LNP gain.
I want to know who MDM Connell is?
Is he a convenor of this blog? If so then he has the right to pedict who will win, otherwise he is some deadhead with too much time on his hands expressing a godlike opinion on everything pro Liberal party. Isnt this blog for people who want to speak about political debate and not personally attack?
I live in Ferny Grove and I want everyone to know that having only three parties to vote for on election day is a real indication that the libs have won. No Ind, no Katter Party, no Family First, nothing, This is a sorry stae of affairs because I dont think Dale Shuttleworth will do anything in this electorate. I read terence’s comment and while it is overtly hostile, he makes some good points. Dale is a career opportunist because he has tried for three elections now to get into parliament. – Family First, Independent and now Lib. Jee wizz, he has picked the right horse to set himself up for life now that is for sure.
Thankyou