Condamine – Queensland 2012

LNP 11.6% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Ray Hopper, since 2009. Previously Member for Darling Downs, 2001-2009.

Geography
Southern Queensland. Condamine covers rural areas to the west of Toowoomba, covering parts of Toowoomba and Dalby local government areas. The seat covers Dalby, Oakey, Pittsworth, Clifton and some outer parts of Toowoomba.

History
The seat of Condamine was created newly at the 2009 election, taking parts of the abolished seats of Darling Downs and Cunningham. The seat of Condamine had previously existed as a seat from 1950 to 1992, and for most of that time was held by the Country Party/National Party.

The district of Cunningham existed continuously from 1888 to 2009, and was won by the Country/National Party at every election from 1920 onwards.

Tony Elliott held Cunningham for the National Party from 1974 to 2001. He served as a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen government from 1980 to 1983, and again served as an opposition frontbencher in the early 1990s.

Elliott retired in 2001, and was succeeded by fellow National Stuart Copeland. Copeland won re-election in 2004 and 2006.

The seat of Darling Downs was created in 2001, with the same name as an earlier seat that had been abolished in 1888.

In 2001, the seat was won by independent candidate Ray Hopper, who joined the National Party later the same year.

Hopper joined the opposition frontbench in 2004, and won a second and third term as Member for Darling Downs.

Both Hopper and Copeland joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008, and when their seats were abolished in the 2008 redistribution, Hopper won LNP preselection for Condamine.

Hopper and Copeland both ran for Condamine in 2009, Hopper as the LNP candidate and Copeland as an independent. Hopper won the seat with 61.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, with Copeland coming second. Copeland managed 25% of the primary votes.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ray Hopper is running for re-election. Katter’s Australian Party is running John Mathison.

Political situation
Condamine was an interesting contest in 2009, but should return to being a fairly safe LNP seat in 2012.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ray Hopper LNP 14,360 47.7 -11.6
Stuart Copeland IND 7,664 25.4 +25.4
Tracey Harris ALP 5,917 19.6 -7.1
Craig Sheehan GRN 1,009 3.3 +1.3
Rod Watson ON 860 2.9 +2.9
Stephanie Bugg IND 323 1.1 +1.1

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ray Hopper LNP 15,200 61.6
Stuart Copeland IND 9,491 38.4

Booth breakdown
Booths in Condamine have been divided into four areas. Booths in the area around Toowoomba have been grouped together. Rural parts of the seat have been divided into north (around Dalby), central and south.

The LNP’s Ray Hopper topped the poll in three of the four areas, with independent Stuart Copeland topping the poll in the south.

The Hopper-Copeland margin varied from 35.2% to Hopper in the north to 1.7% to Copeland in the south. The LNP vote varied from 55% in the north to 42% in the south.

The Labor vote varied from 22.8% near Toowoomba to under 10% in the south.

Polling booths in Condamine at the 2009 state election. North in yellow, Central in green, South in red, Toowoomba Outskirts in blue.

 

Voter group LNP % IND % ALP % Total votes % of votes
Central 46.7 26.4 20.0 7,599 25.2
Toowoomba Outskirts 43.1 27.1 22.8 7,143 23.7
North 55.1 19.9 17.9 5,903 19.6
South 42.0 43.7 9.7 2,072 6.9
Other votes 48.6 22.2 20.4 7,416 24.6
Liberal National primary votes in Condamine at the 2009 state election. Click to enlarge.
Primary votes for independent candidate Stuart Copeland in Condamine at the 2009 state election. Click to enlarge.
Labor primary votes in Condamine at the 2009 state election. Click to enlarge.

3 COMMENTS

  2. Ray Hopper has worked extremely hard in this electorate and should win easily despite the distraction of the Katter Mad Hatter Party.

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