Brennan – NT 2020

ALP 2.8%

Incumbent MP
Tony Sievers, since 2016.

Geography
Palmerston. Drysdale covers eastern parts of the city of Palmerston, to the east of Darwin. Brennan covers the suburbs of Palmrston, Gunn, Bakewell and parts of Rosebery and Farrar.

Redistribution
Brennan picked up part of Rosebery from Blain. This increased the Labor margin from 2.6% to 2.8%.

History
The electorate of Brennan has existed since 1990. In that time, the Country Liberal Party has won the seat at all but two elections.

The CLP’s Max Ortmann won Brennan in 1990. He held the seat for one term, and lost preselection in 1994.

Ortmann ran for Brennan as an independent in 1994 but lost to CLP candidate Denis Burke.

Denis Burke held Brennan from 1994 until 2005. Burke became chief minister in 1999, leading the Country Liberal Party until they were defeated in 2001 – ending twenty-seven years of power in the NT.

Burke continued to lead the CLP in opposition until 2003. He was succeeded by Terry Mills, but returned to the leadership in the lead-up to the 2005 election.

In 2005, Burke’s CLP suffered devastating losses, including his own seat of Brennan, which fell to Labor’s James Burke.

James Burke held Brennan for one term, losing in 2008 to the CLP’s Peter Chandler. Chandler was re-elected in 2012, and served as a minister in the CLP government, including as deputy chief minister from 2014 to 2015.

Chandler was defeated at the 2016 election by Labor’s Tony Sievers, who gained a swing of over 16%.

Candidates

Assessment
Brennan was a traditional CLP seat. A resurgent CLP would be eager to regain this seat – a failure to win here will probably signal that the CLP is not going to be competitive overall.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tony Sievers Labor 1,93948.0+12.047.4
Peter Chandler Country Liberal 1,78444.2-19.843.5
Dorothy Fox1 Territory3147.8+7.87.4
Others00.01.7
Informal1222.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tony Sievers Labor 2,07752.6+16.652.8
Peter Chandler Country Liberal 1,86947.4-16.647.2

Booth breakdown
There were two booths in Brennan at the 2016 election: Bakewell and Rosebery. Part of Rosebery was transferred to Blain in the redistribution.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in every category in 2016, ranging from 50.3% in Rosebery to 53.1% in the other votes.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Pre-poll52.51,76141.3
Bakewell52.61,41433.2
Other votes53.172617.0
Rosebery50.33618.5

4 COMMENTS

  1. CLP gain if Labor preferences them over the TA, Allot of these traditional Tory seats will all depend on who Labor preferences if Labor is to fall to 3rd place on the primaries, However it also opens up an opportunity for Labor to have an upset hold here if the Tory vote is split too much. If i had to put my money on this seat it will either be a CLP or a TA seat due to the Tory vote likely equalling more than 50% overall. If the CLP came 3rd place then the CLP did say they might preference Labor over TA which is quite interesting…..

  2. The NT returning to compulsory preferences probably makes it harder for Labor in seats like this. A result like ALP 35 – CLP 30 – TA 30 – Grn 5 would be a loss as long as TA and CLP preferenced each other, but under OPV they can rely on those preferences exhausting. Labor has won several seats in Qld that way from the LNP, KAP and various splinters of One Nation.

    Of course, TA and CLP swapping preferences isn’t a sure thing, as the Johnston by-election showed. Some of these people really hate each other.

  3. yes preferences will be a dogs breakfast all over the place. Also given how small the electorates are 4000 odd the preference flows could vary from electorate to electorate

  4. It will be dogs breakfast this election.
    Peter Chandler lost it because of the hatred of Adam Giles
    He is running as a Independent
    Add to the mix Territory Alliance
    Anyone can win other than the present member

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