Wollongong – NSW 2019

ALP 8.9% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Paul Scully, since 2016.

Geography
Wollongong covers the Wollongong city centre, as well as surrounding suburbs including Berkeley, Lake Heights, Port Kembla and Unanderra.

History
The current electoral district of Wollongong has existed since 1968. Previous districts with the name of Wollongong existed from 1904 to 1920 and from 1927 to 1930. The current district has been dominated by the ALP, who have won the seat at all but three elections.

Wollongong was created in 1968 when the seat of Wollongong-Kembla was split between Wollongong and Kembla. Wollongong-Kembla had been held by the ALP continuously from its creation in 1941 until 1965, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Jack Hough. Hough won the renamed seat of Wollongong in 1968, but lost in 1971.

Eric Ramsay won Wollongong in 1971. He held the seat safely throughout the 1970s, narrowly defeating independent Wollongong mayor Frank Arkell.

In 1984, Ramsay retired, and Arkell won the seat. He was re-elected in 1988, but lost the seat with a swing to the ALP in 1991. Arkell was murdered in 1998.

Wollongong was won in 1991 by the ALP’s Gerry Sullivan. He held the seat until 1999, when the ALP gave preselection in Wollongong to Col Markham, who had held the neighbouring seat of Keira since 1988.

Markham was defeated for Labor preselection in 2003 by Noreen Hay. She served as a parliamentary secretary from 2007 to 2008.

At the 2011 election, independent candidate Gordon Bradbery challenged Hay, and came within 700 votes of winning. Bradbery was elected Lord Mayor of Wollongong in 2012.

Hay was re-elected in 2015, but resigned in 2016. The 2016 by-election was won by Labor candidate Paul Scully.

Candidates

Assessment
Wollongong is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Noreen Hay Labor 20,07140.4+3.6
Cameron Walters Liberal 10,46521.0-0.1
Arthur RorrisIndependent10,16220.4+20.4
Mitchell Bresser Greens 4,7479.5-0.2
Noreen ColonelliNo Land Tax2,1974.4+4.4
Clarrie PrattChristian Democrats1,4632.9+0.4
Phil LatzCyclists6131.2+1.2
Informal2,1234.1

2015 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Noreen Hay Labor 22,29358.9
Arthur RorrisIndependent15,55641.1

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Noreen Hay Labor 24,32663.4+4.2
Cameron Walters Liberal 14,01936.6-4.2

2016 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Paul Scully Labor 23,58848.1+7.7
Gordon BradberyIndependent16,70734.0+34.0
Cath Blakey Greens 5,21610.6+1.1
Joe RossiShooters, Fishers & Farmers1,7933.7+3.7
Colleen BaxterChristian Democrats1,7693.6+0.7
Informal1,6053.2

2016 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Paul Scully Labor 26,73958.0
Gordon BradberyIndependent19,33642.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Wollongong have been split into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.

At the 2015 election, Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against independent Arthur Rorris) in all three areas, ranging from 51.7% in the north-east to 70.2% in the south-east. The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14% in the south-east to 22.3% in the north-east.

Labor also won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against independent Gordon Bradbery) in all three areas at the 2016 by-election, ranging from 54.3% in the north-east to 69.5% in the south-east. The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.8% in the south-east to 16.6% in the north-east.

2015 booth breakdown

Voter groupLIB prim %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North-East22.351.713,58527.3
West19.159.312,10124.3
South-East14.070.28,94318.0
Other votes24.764.98,90017.9
Pre-poll27.148.66,18912.4

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North-East16.654.314,10628.7
West6.958.212,34325.2
South-East6.869.59,64819.7
Other votes12.254.74,7469.7
Pre-poll9.652.48,23016.8

Election results in Wollongong at the 2015 state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Liberal vs independent) votes and Liberal primary votes.

Election results at the 2016 Wollongong by-election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Liberal vs independent) votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

4 COMMENTS

  1. The Liberal Party has unveiled university student and former political staffer, Zachary Fitzpatrick as its candidate for the state seat of Wollongong.

    Has any high-profile Independents put their hands up yet for the Gong?

  2. @ PRP

    Just to clarify; Zachary is a former university student whom has graduated.

    I don’t think any independents have put their hands up as of yet.

    I’ll have my eye on this as Liberals haven’t even announced their Kiera and Shellharbour candidates.

  3. I don’t know about the rest of you but I’m tired with all the previous broken promises from the Liberal state government and to make thing worse, Labour hasn’t done enough for the current rail issues that are substandard for a developed country. I going to vote different this time. I’m going to get in touch with the independent, Nikola Nastoski and see what they has to offer.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here