Holsworthy – NSW 2019

LIB 6.7%

Incumbent MP
Melanie Gibbons, since 2011.

Geography
South-west Sydney. Holsworthy covers south-eastern parts of the City of Liverpool and a small north-western part of Sutherland Shire. Holsworthy covers Barden Ridge, Casula, Chipping Norton, Holsworthy, Lucas Heights, Lurnea, Moorebank, Prestons and Wattle Grove.

History
Menai was first created at the 1999 redistribution. The seat was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Alison Megarrity with a 4.2% margin. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased 9.5% margin.

In 2007, Megarrity won a third term, but with a reduced 2.7% margin.

In 2011, Megarrity retired and Liberal candidate Melanie Gibbons won Menai with a huge 27% swing. Gibbons was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Holsworthy is not the most marginal Liberal seat, but it could be vulnerable if Labor is doing well at this election.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melanie Gibbons Liberal 23,33649.5+2.2
Charishma Kaliyanda Labor 17,17836.4+6.0
Signe Westerberg Greens 2,1234.5-1.4
Tony MakaChristian Democrats1,9094.1-1.5
Michael ByrneIndependent1,4073.0+3.0
Adrian AteljNo Land Tax1,1802.5+2.5
Informal2,4384.9

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melanie Gibbons Liberal 24,55156.7-4.0
Charishma Kaliyanda Labor 18,74943.3+4.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Holsworthy have been split into two halves: east and west, divided by the Georges River.

The Liberal Party won a large 64.5% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, while Labor won 52% in the west.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East64.518,92340.1
West48.014,79231.4
Other votes55.79,66720.5
Pre-poll53.93,7518.0

Two-party-preferred votes in Holsworthy at the 2015 NSW state election

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23 COMMENTS

  1. Another seat that I think will go to whoever wins (barring certain hung parliament scenarios). Seats further up like Mulgoa, Seven Hills and Riverstone to name three will go before this one if you ask me.

  2. The key to this seat is whether Melanie can hold on to the strong performances she has around Holsworthy, Hammondville, Moorebank and Chipping Norton. If she can do so, then she will win the seat.

  3. this is much more marginal than the Old Menai seat….. largely because very little of the shire Menai suburbs are in it

  4. Sure Peter. Believe what you want. Gibbons well in front on all polls (58-42 in Nov published one) but if it helps you sleep at night…..

  5. Moderate, Sure if it helps you sleep at night Believing the polls, Polls don’t decide election’s Voters do, I am predicting an upset Labour victory here, No way the Liberals get a swing towards them here,

  6. Question
    How do soldiers in Military Corrective Establisment between Anzac Village and Holsworthy camp cast their vote? Presumably they would be more likely to vote ALP than rest of camp.

    No comment on likely result it is 53 Years since I was a resident adjacent to the Glass House not in it however close enough for their Tannoy to wake me each morning.

    I would imagine Greens would have a rough time on Holsworthy after all it is in seats like this that casualties are people not just numbers.

  7. Good work Daniel. You rely on your gut, I’ll rely on the polls. Lets see who wins. I sleep soundly at night.

  8. The polls were wrong in Victoria, What makes you think they will be right here? I respect your view but its absurd to thing the coalition gets a swing towards them in this seat when you know damn well Federally is toxic, and the state gov is going to get a swing against it no matter what. Im not relying on my gut, Im relying on historical trends and fundamentals. The bookies disagree with you sorry.

  9. Gibbons favourite on Sportsbet – $1.55 to $2.40. So I’m afraid they agree with me.

    She has 7% to play with. She will win at least 54-46.

  10. One Nation running here, any insight into how they will go here?

    I agree with Moderate that I think Gibbons will just hold on, but not by as much as 54-46.

    More like 51-49.

  11. Allot of these margins are Inflated because MIKE BAIRD was Popular! in 2015, Allot of Traditional Labour seats that were lost in 2011, The Liberals managed to hold them in 2015 with minimal swings against them, Its not because of Population changes, Its because Baird was popular, This time you will see a huge correction in seats like these, I see a Dozen Of Liberal seats above 5% that are in play, But even if they don’t go Labour they will be close, This seat is on a Knife edge. Remember Nobody thought Hawthorn would go labour, so what makes you think this won’t? Upset’s are a thing you know, Labour gain

  12. But Daniel you said follow the Bookies!!
    They are with me and not you. I am happy to follow the bookies and/or all of the published polls. It is a preferable barometer to what your tummy says!!

    Just because you keep saying “Labor gain” doesn’t make it more likely to happen….

    By the way you couldn’t pick 2 more unalike seats than Holdsworthy and Hawthorn!!

  13. I said the BOOKIES, not the betting website you silly rabbit, Im talking about the Experts the people that Monitor and COVER election’s You do realise that anyone can Bet on sportsbet? Most people think this will stay liberal, But they don’t know what they are thinking, Margin doesn’t matter because no seat is safe, You cant say seats like Tweet which has been coalition since 2009 have a bigger chance of flipping than seats like these, This is Menai (Which is a Labor Leaning Bellwether ) Stop trying to tease and have fun being proved wrong come March, Stop looking at the Polls and the Market’s and check with the Experts before you say anything further, Even Antony green expects this to be on a knife edge, (See his key seat guide)

  14. If the libs weren’t worrried why are they out here every week, they are desperate to hold it but know it’s gone, they did the same with coogee which everyone knows is now gone and the libs are our trying to save this, they will abandon it next week once they don’t see the bounce. These are traditional labour areas that will swing back

  15. I think Melanie Gibbons being a reasonably competent and hardworking local member will see her fall across the line here but further redistributions would push her further away from her Shire power base and could probably hurt her here. If I had to bet on it would be a Liberal retain but very close, maybe on a 1%~ margin.

  16. this seat is roughly 10% weaker than the old Menai very little of the Menai suburbs in the seat
    1995 figures would have made this an alp win

  17. Gibbons is a hopeless member clinging on to issues as a populist, she kissed up to liberal mayor about development then blames labour council such a hypocrite with no real policy

    She also was deputy mayor in Sutherland changing the Lep to over develop the shire

    This seat will be a alp gain, they don’t need to be high profile as gibbons incompetence will ensure alp gain

  18. Will possibly (given the highly likely hung parliament) go to whoever wins overall, at the moment Liberals narrowly favoured, as they’re the incumbent.

  19. Interesting reading over Holsworthy comments especially predictions in light of results
    One observation those most likely to comment with sentence or half sentence comments are least likely to be correct. Possibly they do not know what they do not know and therefore do not look for correct answer.

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