Granville – NSW 2019

ALP 2.1%

Incumbent MP
Julia Finn, since 2015.

Geography
Western Sydney. Granville covers parts of the City of Parramatta and the City of Holroyd. Suburbs include Guildford, Granville, Greystanes, Merrylands and South Wentworthville.

History
The seat of Granville was first created in 1894, when single-member electorates were introduced. The seat has existed ever since, except for three elections in the 1920s when Granville became part of the multi-member district of Parramatta. The ALP has held the seat continuously since 1938.

The seat was won in 1938 by Bill Lamb. Lamb participated in the second Lang Labor breakaway party from 1940 to 1941, but was loyal to the ALP after 1941. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1947 to 1959. In 1962 he lost Labor preselection and retired.

Lamb was defeated for preselection by Parramatta mayor Pat Laherty. He held the seat until his retirement in 1984.

Laherty was succeeded in 1984 by Laurie Ferguson. He held Granville until 1990, when he resigned to run for the federal seat of Reid. He held Reid until 2010, when he moved to the seat of Werriwa after a redistribution. He served as a frontbencher in the Labor opposition prior to 2007, then as a parliamentary secretary upon the election of the federal Labor government. He returned to the backbench after the 2010 election.

The 1990 Granville by-election was won by the ALP’s Kim Yeadon. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1995 to 2003, and retired in 2007.

Granville was won in 2007 by Parramatta mayor David Borger, who served as a minister in the Labor government from 2008 to 2011.

In 2011, Borger was defeated by Liberal candidate Tony Issa. Issa himself was defeated in 2015 by Labor candidate Julia Finn.

Candidates

  • Julia Finn (Labor)
  • Steven Lopez (Independent)
  • Linda Harris (Independent)
  • Abdul Charaf (Independent)
  • Benjamin Prociv (Greens)
  • Keith Piper (Christian Democrats)
  • Rohan Laxmanalal (Animal Justice)
  • Tony Issa (Liberal)
  • Assessment
    Granville is very marginal, although Labor would have an advantage if the statewide swing goes their way.

    2015 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Julia Finn Labor 18,55541.0+4.2
    Tony Issa Liberal 17,03237.7-4.8
    Lara Taouk SleimanChristian Democrats5,60912.4+7.1
    James Atanasious Greens 2,4415.4-0.4
    Steven LopezIndependent8571.9+1.9
    Mario MarraNo Land Tax7321.6+1.6
    Informal2,2234.7

    2015 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Julia Finn Labor 20,66252.1+5.9
    Tony Issa Liberal 18,98747.9-5.9

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Granville have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.1% in the west to 59% in the north-east.

    The Christian Democratic Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.1% in the north-east to 15.3% in the south-east.

    Voter groupCDP prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    South-East15.353.111,88026.3
    West13.450.111,08924.5
    North-East8.159.06,80215.0
    Other votes9.751.49,51521.0
    Pre-poll14.046.95,94013.1

    Election results in Granville at the 2015 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Christian Democratic Party primary votes.

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    14 COMMENTS

    1. This would only have been close in 2015 as Issa was reportedly a strong sitting MP – shouldn’t go Liberal again until their next big win (whenever that is)

    2. Should be a big swing back to Labor this time around maybe around 10% swing, with an incumbent Labor MP and also big swing back to Labor in Fibro belt suburbs in 2016 Federal election.

    3. Watching the coverage of the 2011 election and seeing the Libs win Granville was my big WTF moment of the night. I never thought I would see it. Agree with Alex above, this will be a big Labor swing in 2019 – and it will be the Lib marginals that will get the resources.

    4. Anton, houses built right after World War 2 which happens to be around Granville, Merrylands, Guildford, Fairfield. Got that term from the 2004 Federal Election ABC page from the old Reid electorate not the current Reid (a renamed Lowe electorate)

    5. Fair enough that the Libs want to wage some battles on ALP turf, but I see no reason they should be optimistic in Granville.

      The return of Issa might hold down Finn’s sophomore surge, but it seems unlikely he could achieve as a challenger what he couldn’t as the incumbent.

    6. Labor hold, likely with an above-average swing, although Tony Issa returning may blunt the swing somewhat, don’t count on that – if the swing’s on, it’s on (see Donna Bauer sadly getting crushed in Carrum, Victoria in 2018).

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