Dubbo – NSW 2019

NAT 20.4%

Incumbent MP
Troy Grant, since 2011.

Geography
Central West NSW. The electorate is centred on the city of Dubbo, as well as Narromine, Wellington, Mudgee and Gulgong. Dubbo covers the entirety of the Dubbo, Narromine and Wellington council areas and western parts of the Mid-Western Regional Council area.

History
The electoral district of Dubbo has existed continuously since 1930. For the first three decades it was a marginal seat contested by the ALP and the Country Party. The seat was held by Coalition MPs from 1959 until 1999, by independents from 1999 to 2011, and by the Nationals again since 2011.

A previous district with the name of Dubbo existed from 1894 to 1904. The newly-created seat of Dubbo was won in 1930 by Alfred McClelland of the ALP. He had previously held one of the seats in the multi-member district of Northern Tablelands from 1920 to 1927. In 1927, he lost the single-member district of Armidale.

McClelland lost his seat at the 1932 election. His son Doug served as a senator in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and was a Whitlam government minister. His grandson Robert served as a minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments.

The Country Party’s George Wilson won Dubbo in 1932. He held the seat until his death in 1942.

At the 1942 by-election, the ALP’s Clarrie Robertson, with the Country Party pushed into third place behind an independent. Robertson had lost Dubbo to Wilson by 159 votes in 1941, and went on to hold the seat until 1950.

In 1950, Robertson lost Dubbo to the Country Party’s Robert Medcalf. Medcalf moved from his former seat of Lachlan, which he had held since 1947.

Robertson defeated Medcalf in 1953, and held it until 1959, when he lost to the Liberal candidate, Dubbo mayor Les Ford. Ford held the seat until his death in 1964.

The 1965 Dubbo by-election was won by Liberal candidate John Mason. He served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1975 until the government’s defeat in 1976.

Liberal leader Peter Coleman lost his seat at the 1978 election, and Mason was subsequently elected as Leader of the Opposition. He lost the Liberal leadership early in 1981, and retired at that year’s election.

At the 1981 election, the National Country Party’s Gerry Peacocke won the seat. The ALP candidate slightly outpolled Peacocke on primary votes, but Peacocke won the seat comfortably on Liberal preferences.

Peacocke retired at the 1999 election, and later went on to serve as Mayor of Dubbo. Following Peacocke’s retirement, the Nationals lost Dubbo to independent councillor Tony McGrane, who won with a 14-vote margin.

McGrane was re-elected in 2003 with a 55% majority, but died in 2004.

The 2004 by-election was won by independent Dubbo councillor Dawn Fardell, who gained a similar majority to McGrane. Fardell was re-elected in 2007, but with a reduced 0.9% margin.

In 2011, Fardell was defeated solidly by Nationals candidate Troy Grant, with a 14.5% swing.

Grant joined the Coalition ministry in April 2014, as Minister for Hospitality, Gaming and Racing and Minister for the Arts.

In October 2014, Grant was elected as Nationals leader and Deputy Premier, and took on the additional portfolios of Trade and Investment. Grant was re-elected in Dubbo in 2015, and stepped down as Nationals leader in late 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Dubbo is a safe Nationals seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Troy Grant Nationals 28,16560.5+0.3
Stephen Lawrence Labor 10,93923.5+14.0
Matt Parmeter Greens 2,0624.4+0.8
Colin HamiltonIndependent1,9604.2+4.2
Ben ShepherdNo Land Tax1,3062.8+2.8
Peter SchererChristian Democrats1,1812.5+2.5
Rod PryorIndependent9732.1+2.1
Informal1,5783.3

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Troy Grant Nationals 29,93270.4-10.9
Stephen Lawrence Labor 12,57129.6+10.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Dubbo have been split into four parts. The two main cities of Dubbo and Mudgee have been grouped together. The remaining booths have been split into East and West. “East” covers the remaining booths in the Mid-Western and Wellington council areas, while “West” covers the remaining booths in the Dubbo and Narromine council areas.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 61.6% in Mudgee to 75% in the west.

Voter groupNAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Dubbo70.513,39228.7
East63.04,70510.1
Mudgee61.63,7278.0
West75.03,5987.7
Other votes71.16,08613.1
Pre-poll73.515,07832.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Dubbo at the 2015 NSW state election

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18 COMMENTS

  1. possible Nationals face a wipe out in the Central west……….Bathurst….alp, Orange….. shooters retain, Dubbo…independent

  2. Dickinson will win this seat easy
    Grant retired because he knew greyhounds ruined his chance of winning and is on the nose in Mudgee
    Pity good police minister but forgot about electorate like many Nats do when they hop in bed with liberals

    Nats are not libs when will they get that in their thick heads

    Libs drive Porsche’s have tinted glasses and permed hairdos and live on north shore drink Chardonnay

    Nats drive hiluxs or tractor are farmers drink beer

    Only thing in common is they hate labor and greens nothing else

    Independent will win for sure

  3. The Independent, Dickerson looked at one stage to be a contender, but polling is now showing it as a easy National’s retain.

  4. I’ve found the poll.

    “The Daily Liberal poll has Dugald Saunders at 29.41 per cent of the primary vote, followed by Labor’s Stephen Lawrence at 29.08 per cent, then Independent candidate Mathew Dickerson at 28.01 per cent.”
    https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/5913728/dubbo-electorate-could-be-a-close-call-according-to-our-poll-but-bookies-disagree/

    The primary vote swings since 2015 election are:
    Nats -31.1%
    CLP +5.6
    Ind +28.0

    It may be interesting to compare this poll with 1999 when Tony McGrane (ind) won.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_district_of_Dubbo

  5. That doesn’t look like an easy Nationals retain. These polls aren’t accurate enough to determine who comes first and second in such a close race so it’s basically a three-way tie (and even if Dickerson was third on primaries he would likely overtake Labor on minor preferences).

  6. Dave exactly there is no chance of an alp win but the ants are in serious danger.

    To varying degrees they are in danger in most of their 14 seats

  7. Sorry Mick you keep making this comment without anything (other than your hopes) to back it up. So for abundance of caution, and confirmed by the polling the Nats are safe in:

    Oxley
    Coffs Harbour
    Cootamundra
    Port Macquarie
    Bathurst
    Northern Tablelands
    Myall Lakes
    Tamworth

    Very Likely to win:
    Clarence
    Dubbo
    Monaro
    Murray

    Very close:
    Ballina
    Lismore
    Tweed
    Orange

    Behind:

    Barwon (vs Shooter)
    Upper Hunter (Vs ALP)

    All this from polling taken the week before Daley’s week from hell. Polls likely to prefer Nats in the next week.

  8. Wrong, Monaro is only on a 2.3 percent or something which is incredibly close, At least a 50-50, But we will see, There is a huge mood for change in NSW and you will see that come the 23rd,

  9. My read re Nats prospects lies somewhere between both Mick and Moderate. The Nats brand IS “on the nose” in many parts of the state but the questions have to be asked:

    – Just how pronounced is this voter discontent and what will be the scope of any likely protest vote ?
    – Who will benefit from any such protest vote ?

    The reality is that we are highly unlikely to see any state-wide uniformity with the most likely outcomes being confined to specific seats or regions at most.

    LAB CAN potentially snag a couple of seats but are little/no chance in the majority. Shooters MAY have chances in certain specific seats but will their campaigns be sufficiently organized/resourced to be effective in reaching voters. Independent candidates MAY challenge in a few specific seats but its highly optimistic to see this as being across the board in all NAT seats. As is the case with Shooters/minor parties; they also face the uphill challenge of being sufficiently organized and resourced.

    In all honesty, I would be surprised if more than a handful of these seats change hands. Off Moderate’s list, I would definitely move Monaro into the “endangered” category. Dubbo has a long history of being receptive to Independents so, whilst I’m far from sure this will occur this time round, it should at least be on a “watch list”. As for the “safes”, whilst it would be a distinct surprise to see any of them lost; there are some rather inflated margins in some that may be reduced significantly.

  10. My attitude approach is more than hopes. There are overlaps of Federal and state……. there are state seats which are poisoned by the federal brand……….
    Barnaby is on the nose in New England……. this will impact on both Tamworth and Northern Tablelands whether enough to win by an independent I don’t know…… but certainly enough to worry
    Rob Oakeshott is contesting Cowper which consists of Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour…. others suggest Coffs in Danger but Port Macquarie is Robs Stamping ground he has a huge influence there
    Murray 3% margin against shooters in by election. Orange will stay shooters.Ballina will not be won by nationals against the state swing either Labor or Greens. Lismore… sitting popular National mp rewiring… former Federal mp for Page is contesting she is very popular an excellent chance.
    Clarence overlaps with Federal seat of Page and previous Mp is contesting for the shooters. Barwon…. very much fractured vote… sitting mp who is popular retiring. Water issues big here… centre of Any one but the nationals campaign.. shooters or labor can win.Dubbo sitting mp retiring… popular independent contesting.Bathurst half seat is Lithgow…. this sits on a very inflated Margin.. based on 2016 Federal election Alp 54%Lithgow Alp 48%Bathurst would be alp held on those figures.
    Monaro 2% margin the is a reason to be worried. Cootamundra on byelection likely np win. Oxley seems likely Npa win.. Tweed nationals are worried .. look at federal seat figures. Upper Hunter Spine Muswellbrook and Singleton excellent and improving Alp vote Good vote in Dungog. in 2015 …. reasons for concern. I think the starting point is the Nationals will not win seats from greens or Shooters. There is reason to be concerned against Alp, shooters and independents in most seats for various reasons…. this does not mean all will change but reasons for serious concerns exist. I don’t know of seat polling in these seats if this is internal to the coalition then i do not have access…. but that said it tends to be unreliable at a seat level. We will see but i can argue reasons for concern that are more than high hopes….. We will see. Yes Moderate still thinking of our bet….

  11. Oh Missed Myall lakes… alp has hopes but I don’t know… demographic changes helping alp

  12. Have reread the Dubbo poll article.
    The poll was one of those ones where people select their favorite from the newspaper’s website.
    It is self selecting, multiple votes are allowed, and there is no requirement to live in the electorate to participate. The results are meaningless.

  13. This will be close, but I’ll give this narrowly to former Mayor Mathew Dickerson, who’s running as an independent.

  14. anyone that believed Lawrence was sitting on 28%, seriously had no idea about this electorate. He couldn’t even beat SF’s and they never had a chance.

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