Coffs Harbour – NSW 2019

NAT 14.3%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Fraser, since 1990.

Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers the entirety of the City of Coffs Harbour, with the local government boundaries aligned to the electoral boundary.

History
Coffs Harbour has existed since 1981, and has always been held by the National Party.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Matt Singleton. He had been the Member for Clarence since 1971, but moved to Coffs Harbour when the redistribution made his former seat a notional Labor seat. He briefly served as a minister from 1988 to 1989, and retired in 1990.

The 1990 Coffs Harbour by-election was won by National Party candidate Andrew Fraser, and he has held the seat ever since.

Candidates

Assessment
Coffs Harbour is a safe Nationals seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Fraser Nationals 24,65254.6-11.3
June Smith Labor 11,69825.9+11.7
Craig Christie Greens 6,12613.6+3.1
Ian SutherlandChristian Democrats1,9584.3+0.7
Annette GuerryNo Land Tax7331.6+1.6
Informal1,5033.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Fraser Nationals 26,18464.3-13.0
June Smith Labor 14,53735.7+13.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Coffs Harbour have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Coffs Harbour urban area have been grouped together, and the remainder have been split into those to the north, south and west of Coffs Harbour.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 58.7% in the north to 65.6% in Coffs Harbour.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.9% in the south to 16.6% in the north.

Voter groupGRN prim %NAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Coffs Harbour14.265.614,36431.8
South11.964.99,12820.2
North16.658.76,69414.8
West16.463.21,9684.4
Other votes15.662.86,84415.2
Pre-poll8.068.36,16913.7

Election results in Coffs Harbour at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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10 COMMENTS

  1. The Aus today is reporting that Coffs Harbour is possibly “in trouble” for the Nats. Anyone have any idea on which Independents are likely to pose a threat? I can’t see Labor building too much on its 2015 primary vote in an area like this…

  2. Will be National until the next 1978/1981 Labor landslide, I expect the margin to half though this time, 7%

  3. One thing observers are not properly factoring in is huge community disquiet over agricultural pollution of local water sources, primarily from the explosion in blueberry farming across the region.

    The National Party candidate is chairman of the main industry group, and there is deep unhappiness at his candidacy not just in the wider community, but also within the National Party membership itself.

    More information on the community issues on this can be found at https://www.protectcoffswater.org

  4. look at the figures….. no 54 % primary then 64% 2pp….. would have expected close to 58% with 80% gr going to the alp….. but this did not happen…. Think the seat was not safe for the national party but safe for Andrew Fraser. would be an 8% swing just on normal green preference behaviour at the 2015 election.
    If was 8% people would not have the seat was out of range . sally Townley and Labor both have a chance

  5. Townley has come down from $36 to $21, and down now to $13 on the bookies. Seems a lot of people are taking a gamble on her getting up.

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