Castle Hill – NSW 2019

Could someone explain why suburban areas like Castle hill are Conservative leaning? I thought suburbs generally lean Left, Like they do in the USA

I wonder the same. I’m not entirely familiar with Sydney’s suburbs, but looking at the area’s median house price it looks like it would be comparable to a Bentleigh or Ivanhoe type of area (to cover both sides of the city), but even before the wipeout election last month they were only around 50-50 territory, a 30% Liberal margin would be unheard of. In fact, even Malvern, Brighton & Sandringham never have anywhere close to 30% Liberal margins.

Are political attitudes in Sydney’s suburbs really that different than in comparably priced Melbourne suburbs? Or is Castle Hill just in a particularly conservative ‘bible belt’ area of the city or something?

Castle Hill is a particularly ‘Bible-Belt’ part of Sydney. Notably it is close to the Hillsong headquarters

Sydney’s Bible belt much larger and more concentrated than Melbourne. And it has a lot more money.

If you wanted a Melbourne area to compare this to – I would suggest Donvale->Croydon Hills->Chirnside Park. So thats Bulleen/Warrandyte/Evelyn.

But Hillsong does not run at the same volume in Melbourne for sure, and isn’t associated with wealth in the same way.

Thanks guys, that makes sense and goes a long way to explaining it, in particular the links to Hillsong.

Someday these areas will become Labor maybe in decades time, Especially if the liberals don’t reform their party, The only areas the coalition will win is in true rural areas

You can google Poll Bludger’s 2015 state election guide which has several demographic indicators for each district.

What stands out in Castle Hill is the high median income which is very typical of a safe Liberal seat.

David is very much correct, the demographics of much of this seat is distinctly affluent. It takes in many of the most Liberal large booths in the Hornsby LGA with most being part of the Hills LGA which is a LIB fortress. Whilst a good part of this seat was semi rural around 1980, by 2000 almost all had been developed and the demographics very settled.

As for Sydney’s “Bible Belt”, in state electorates it’s prime concentration is this seat, its southern neighbor Baulkham Hills, parts of Hawkesbury to its north with fringes into the eastern parts of Seven Hills and Riverstone. In Federal electoral terns, the vast majority is concentrated into the seat of Mitchell, with fringes into the western part of Berowra and some parts of Greenway.

If its high income then why the heck is there allot of mortgages here, If people are buying houses and need to borrow money, Then why would they be long term paying their mortgage if they have high income? They should be able to pay off the house quickly

Do not confuse income with wealth. A six figure salary does not automatically translate into a seven figure home. For that you need a mortgage.

Nothing makes a high income Liberal voter consider voting out a Conservative Government faster than mortgage stress.

The high income = Safe Liberal equation is really the part where I feel like Sydney & Melbourne seems to be quite different.

Albert Park has a high median income and has never been won by the Liberal Party. Prahran has a high median income and has been won by ALP or Greens in 4 of the last 5 elections. Even Sandringham, Brighton, Hawthorn & Caulfield – the “heartland” seats people were surprised to see the huge swings in this time – only had margins of around 10%, nowhere near 29%. Malvern was the safest seat on 16% and is far more affluent than Castle Hill. It’s the most “old money” area in all of Victoria.

So to me, margins like 29% speak a lot more to social conservatism (combined with wealth) than it does income & affluence. The Hillsong factor makes a lot more sense to me than median incomes.

Perhaps there’s also a factor where parts of Sydney are more siloed and their communities a little more insular than Melbourne. This could also apply to the Sutherland Shire. If the cultural norm is that everybody votes Liberal and you’d turn heads if at a backyard BBQ you admitted to voting Labor, that sort of tribalism is probably more influencial in rusting entire areas onto the Liberal Party moreso than in Melbourne. I’m sure affluent circles in Toorak & Brighton have a similar tribalism, but it’s probably more muted by the fact that Melbourne’s old money heartland is so surrounded by and well connected to far more progressive-leaning suburbs where they no doubt shop, drink, get coffee and socialise as well.

Daniel, I think the idea that seats like Castle Hill, Baulkham Hils, Hawkesbury and Epping would be won by Labor is honestly laughable. If anything, the demographics change that is going on within the North West is that the gentrification and growth in social conservatism is pushing slowly westward, to the point where Seven Hills is now considered a Marginal Liberal Seat and Riverstone is considered fairly safe for the Liberal Party.

Blacktown could, in a generation’s time, become marginal for Labor, especially as that gentrification creep continues from Kings Langley and Seven Hills into Lalor Park and south of the M7.

Some strange ideas about demographics in this thread.

No, I don’t think you can say that suburban areas generally lean left in Australia (not particularly in the US either…) – yes some areas do tend to favour Labor but places like Western Sydney are much more complex than that would imply. There are wealthier and poorer areas in the western suburbs, and fringe suburbs are over-represented amongst marginal seats.

Wealthier areas still have plenty of mortgages! They just tend to be bigger mortgages for bigger houses. Castle Hill has a lot of areas which are more recent developments, and thus a lot of people with heavy mortgage burdens.

I don’t think Sydney and Melbourne are that different in terms of the relationship between income and vote. There are wealthy areas in Sydney which favour the left, like the inner west.

demographics are the population changes which cause votes to change…..; usually as a suburb becomes wealthier it tends to vote liberal more…….. the exception is the areas of strong green votes in the inner city namely Balmain and Newtown state electorates. The Sutherland shire, Revesby suburbs and areas of the hills have become much stronger for then liberals……….. The Federal seat of Mitchell was won by labor in 1972 and lost for good in 1974

This part of Sydney is one of the most affluent parts of the country, and (unlike neighbouring Riverstone for example) does not have a particularly large migrant population. All of the suburbs in this electorate rank in the 98th, 99th, and 100th percentile on the IRSAD 2016. This suffices to account for its status as the safest Liberal seat in the state.

Dr David Ager is the new Labor candidate for Castle Hill.

Easy Liberal hold.

Grew up in this region, there’s local political culture that is very right-wing the polar opposite of the wealthy inner city. Religion and private sector employment are part of story but not all. You don’t move here if you are seeking a cosmopolitan lifestyle experience.

Sounds like my kind of neighbourhood Geoffrey!