Campbelltown – NSW 2019

ALP 7.3%

Incumbent MP
Greg Warren, since 2015.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Campbelltown includes a number of suburbs in the City of Campbelltown, including Airds, Ambarvale, Blairmount, Blair Athol, Bradbury, Claymore, Glen Alpine, Leumeah, Menangle Park, Rosemeadow, Ruse, Woodbine, and Campbelltown itself.

History
The electoral district of Campbelltown has existed since 1968. It was first won by the Liberal Party in 1968, and was won again by the Liberal Party in 2011, but was held by Labor continuously for fourty years from 1971 to 2011.

The seat was won by Liverpool councillor and Liberal candidate Max Dunbier in 1968. In 1971, he lost to the ALP’s Cliff Mallam. He had previously held the seat of Dulwich Hill from 1954 until its abolition in 1968. After a failed attempt at entering federal politics in 1969, he won Campbelltown in 1971 and held it until his retirement in 1981.

Campbelltown was won in 1981 by the ALP’s Michael Knight. He was appointed Minister for the Olympics when Labor won power in 1995. After a successful Olympics, Knight retired in 2001.

The 2001 by-election was won by the ALP’s Graham West, a former Knight advisor who was elected with only token opposition. He was appointed as a minister after the 2007 election. He remained a minister until June 2010, when he announced his impending retirement at the 2011 election.

At the 2011 election, Liberal candidate Bryan Doyle won Campbelltown with a 21.8% swing. Doyle lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Greg Warren.

Candidates

Assessment
Campbelltown is a relatively safe Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Greg Warren Labor 22,70350.3+16.3
Bryan Doyle Liberal 17,08937.9-7.6
Ben Moroney Greens 2,5155.6-0.8
Sarah RamsayChristian Democrats1,6463.6-1.3
Chris StephandellisNo Land Tax1,1812.6+2.6
Informal2,0024.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Greg Warren Labor 24,22857.3+14.1
Bryan Doyle Liberal 18,03542.7-14.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Campbelltown have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.3% in the south to 63% in the north.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South55.313,32629.5
Central58.411,57225.6
North63.07,62416.9
Other votes54.77,54316.7
Pre-poll55.45,06911.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Campbelltown at the 2015 NSW state election

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2 COMMENTS

  1. 24 year old Riley Munro, a staffer to former Liberal MPs Bryan Doyle and Russell Matheson is contesting Campbelltown this time.

    Expect an above-average swing to Labor here. Back to the 20%+ it’s known for.

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