Cabramatta – NSW 2019

ALP 17.2%

Incumbent MP
Nick Lalich, since 2008.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Cabramatta covers southeastern parts of the City of Fairfield, including Cabramatta, Mount Pritchard, Bonnyrigg, Bonnyrigg Heights, Edensor Park and Lansvale.

History
The electoral district of Cabramatta has existed since 1981. It has been held by four MPs, all members of the Labor Party.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Eric Bedford, who had held Fairfield since 1968. He served as a minister in the Wran government from 1976 until his retirement in 1985.

The 1986 by-election was won by Fairfield deputy mayor John Newman. He held the seat until his death in 1994. Phuong Ngo, a former independent candidate for Cabramatta, was convicted of Newman’s murder.

The 1994 by-election was won by Reba Meagher. She was appointed to the Labor government’s ministry following the 2003 election. She served in the ministry until 2008, when she was removed from the ministry as part of events which saw the downfall of NSW Premier Morris Iemma. Her final portfolio was as Health Minister after the 2007 state election.

The 2008 Cabramatta by-election saw a massive 21.8% swing against the ALP. The seat was won by Fairfield mayor Nick Lalich. He was challenged by Liberal candidate Dai Le. The swing was one of the biggest in NSW history. It would have been a record prior to the by-election, but was surpassed by a 23.1% swing in the seat of Ryde, which held a by-election on the same day. Both seats’ records were beaten at the 2010 Penrith by-election.

Nick Lalich was re-elected in 2011 and 2015. Nick Lalich continued to serve as Mayor of Fairfield while sitting in Parliament, until he stepped down at the 2012 council election.

Candidates

Assessment
Cabramatta is a very safe Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nick Lalich Labor 28,56859.9+14.5
Maria Diep Liberal 13,47228.2-13.6
Bill Cashman Greens 2,4665.2-2.6
Don ModarelliChristian Democrats1,9594.1-0.3
Eddie CantoNo Land Tax1,2332.6+2.6
Informal2,2434.5

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nick Lalich Labor 29,74567.2+15.3
Maria Diep Liberal 14,51932.8-15.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Cabramatta have been split into four areas based on key suburbs: Cabramatta in the east, Mount Pritchard in the centre, St Johns Park in the north-west and Bonnyrigg in the south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.6% in the west to 71.9% in the north.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West63.613,15027.6
East64.811,23323.6
North71.99,83920.7
Other votes63.29,08619.1
Pre-poll65.54,3289.1

Two-party-preferred votes in Cabramatta at the 2015 NSW state election

Become a Patron!

8 COMMENTS

  1. Would not be surprised if this ends up being a Labor v Independent contest this time.

    Dai Le will do better than whoever the Liberals endorse and with Liberal preferences should flow heavily to Le.

  2. Real chance that this could be the upset of the election. Dai Le went really close as a Liberal back in 2011 but wasn’t able to crack the Bonnyrigg/St John’s part section of the electorate back then (which has a very strong Yugoslavian community, in Lalich’s favour).

    But running as an independent, it might just be enough to scoop everything up.

  3. Long time since I lived here, but Lalich was around then & very much seen as champion of Serbian community (definitely not the Indochinese) so any race disadvantages for Labor should already be factored in here. OTOH it’s very poor electorate with very few uni or even trade qualifications so bad for Libs so for Le to get close in 2011 was very good performance by her.

  4. If Lalich retires sometime throughout this term, expect a real fight on Labor’s hands to hold it. Dai Le will contest again as an Independent and has age on her side.

    Lalich is 74 and not well, would not be surprised if he retires sometime in the next couple of years.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here