The following table shows all Legislative Assembly electorates to be contested at the NSW state election, ordered according to two-party-preferred margin.
| Labor Seats | Coalition Seats | ||
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Miranda | ALP 0.8% | Port Stephens | LIB 0.1% |
| Newcastle | ALP 1.2% vs IND | Goulburn | LIB 1.3% vs IND |
| Maitland | ALP 2.0% vs IND | Tweed | NAT 3.0% |
| Menai | ALP 2.7% | Bega | LIB 5.1% |
| Wollondilly | ALP 3.3% | Manly | LIB 5.4% vs IND |
| Balmain | ALP 3.7% vs GRN | Hawkesbury | LIB 6.0% vs IND |
| Camden | ALP 3.9% | Barwon | NAT 6.0% vs IND |
| Gosford | ALP 4.9% | South Coast | LIB 7.8% |
| The Entrance | ALP 4.9% | Epping | LIB 8.0% |
| Monaro | ALP 6.3% | Terrigal | LIB 8.4% |
| Londonderry | ALP 6.9% | Pittwater | LIB 9.4% vs IND |
| Wyong | ALP 6.9% | Lismore | NAT 10.0% |
| Charlestown | ALP 7.0% vs IND | Murray-Darling | NAT 10.1% |
| Coogee | ALP 7.2% | Baulkham Hills | LIB 10.5% |
| Marrickville | ALP 7.5% vs GRN | Clarence | NAT 11.6% |
| Drummoyne | ALP 7.6% | Orange | NAT 11.7% vs IND |
| Heathcote | ALP 8.8% | Lane Cove | LIB 12.4% |
| Riverstone | ALP 10.1% | Ryde | LIB 13.0% |
| Rockdale | ALP 10.3% | Wagga Wagga | LIB 13.0% |
| Swansea | ALP 10.8% | Ballina | NAT 14.5% |
| Blue Mountains | ALP 11.1% | Willoughby | LIB 14.5% vs IND |
| Granville | ALP 11.1% | Upper Hunter | NAT 14.7% |
| Macquarie Fields | ALP 11.1% | Oxley | NAT 15.9% |
| Mulgoa | ALP 11.1% | North Shore | LIB 15.9% vs GRN |
| Kiama | ALP 12.0% | Vaucluse | LIB 16.1% vs GRN |
| Cessnock | ALP 12.4% | Murrumbidgee | NAT 16.1% |
| Bathurst | ALP 13.0% | Penrith | LIB 16.5% |
| Parramatta | ALP 13.7% | Hornsby | LIB 16.5% |
| East Hills | ALP 14.1% | Burrinjuck | NAT 17.3% |
| Oatley | ALP 14.4% | Wakehurst | LIB 17.3% |
| Toongabbie | ALP 14.5% | Myall Lakes | NAT 17.4% |
| Strathfield | ALP 15.1% | Cronulla | LIB 17.5% |
| Smithfield | ALP 15.5% | Coffs Harbour | NAT 17.6% |
| Wallsend | ALP 15.8% | Albury | LIB 19.0% |
| Maroubra | ALP 16.1% | Castle Hill | LIB 19.1% |
| Kogarah | ALP 17.7% | Davidson | LIB 24.7% |
| Campbelltown | ALP 18.5% | Ku-ring-gai | LIB 29.0% |
| Fairfield | ALP 20.4% | ||
| Shellharbour | ALP 21.6% vs IND | ||
| Keira | ALP 22.0% | ||
| Blacktown | ALP 22.4% | ||
| Heffron | ALP 23.7% | ||
| Wollongong | ALP 25.3% | ||
| Bankstown | ALP 25.4% | ||
| Mount Druitt | ALP 25.4% | Lake Macquarie | IND 0.1% vs ALP |
| Liverpool | ALP 26.9% | Dubbo | IND 0.9% vs NAT |
| Canterbury | ALP 27.1% | Port Macquarie | IND 4.5% vs NAT |
| Auburn | ALP 28.7% | Tamworth | IND 4.8% vs NAT |
| Cabramatta | ALP 29.0% | Sydney | IND 16.6% vs ALP |
| Lakemba | ALP 34.0% | Northern Tablelands | IND 30.2% vs NAT |
Dear Ben,
Thank you very much for your guide to date. Its been very informative. I guess the question which comes to mind from reading your review, is that there seems to be a consensus that there’s a tsunami coming on March 26th but no one is sure of the scale or size of the tsunami.
I’d say there’s a consensus up to about say Heathcote but from there the swing could be anything up to say Keira or somewhere in between. I can understand the reticence to nominate a scale of swing as some of the areas between Heathcote and Keira (in terms of swing required) are traditional rock solid Labor areas like Granville, Lithgow or Arncliffe whilst others are much less so – say Oatley or Strathfield.
Do you or anyone for that matter care to nominate a view on the extent of the swing and the variability of the swing?
That’ll be the fascinating aspect of this election – the ALP running marginal seat campaigns in traditional safe seats with an eery calm in areas like Miranda or the Central Coast with very little electioneering as they are abandoned to the advancing hoardes and a last ditch effort on the beaches of Wollongong so to speak.
Lesson of recent elections is that opinion polls are right even if many found it hard to beleive Vic and federal Labor in so much trouble. But 2PP is difficult to apply here. Labor may benefit in some of its ‘safe’ seats by independent preferences exhausting. Antony Green’s transposition of the 2004 federal vote to the state boundaries is a good start:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/04/2011-nsw-election-what-a-coalition-victory-could-look-like.html
Question is what would Labor hold out of the 10% range on this pendulum?
I think the three Sutherland based seats (Miranda, Menai, Heathcote) are gone.
I’d say the three Central Coast seats are gone (Wyong, The Entrance, Gosford).
I reckon all of the urban fringe marginals will fall, given the massive swings in Penrith (Riverstone, Londonderry, Blue Mnts, Mulgoa, Camden, Wollondilly). That’s 12.
Obviously the Libs will hold Penrith and Ryde. That’s 14 gains from 2007.
Then there’s a host of “marginals” where the Libs have horribly underperformed recently (Strathfield, Drummoyne, Oatley, Coogee, Parramatta, Kogarah). I can see 4-5 of them at least going as well, and all 6 of them are well within reach.
Rural marginals: you’d think at least 1-2 of Kiama, Bathust and Monaro will fall, and probably all 3.
So that’s 20+ seats just taking into account the should-be-gimmes and the traditional marginals. Not even counting upset wins like Cessnock or East Hills or Rockdale.
Anything less than a 20 seat loss Labor could spin as a not-too-bad result. They’d probably take a 15-20 seat loss at this point, I’d say.
In my eyes….
GONE:
Miranda
Menai
Camden
Wollondilly
The Entrance
Gosford
Monaro
Coogee
Drummoyne
Blue Mountains
Wyong
Riverstone
Londonderry
Heathcote
Newcaste (Ind)
Balmain (Grn)
PROBABLY GONE:
Mulgoa
Kiama
Maitland
Oatley
Bathurst
Parramatta
Strathfield
Kogarah
Marrickville (Grn)
POSSIBLE:
Granville
Rockdale
East Hills
Cessnock
Maroubra
Toongabbie
Any of the seats where a strong independent may challenge (thinking Charlestown, Swansea, Woolongong, Shellharbour, etc.)
Yes good analysis MDM,
I guess I am leaning to a Liberal/Coalition net gain of about 20-25 seats which would be about 55-60 seats out of 93.
That’s a bad defeat for Labor but not one that wont be recovered from in say 2 terms. What’s unique about this election is that’s in a once in a generation opportunity to reshape politics permanently along the lines of the fall of the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 when they were reduced to 2 seats.
A result where Labor was reduced to sub 20 seats could lead to a party split or worse which potentially could be worth 3 or 4 terms to the Liberals if they govern only moderately competently. The question is whether the Liberals are good enough to deliver a knock out punch? You’d have to say they have the absolutely perfect environment but on the ground can they take seats which are probably going to be decided by a margin of less than 1000 votes? That sort of stuff means doorknocking, railway stations, nursing homes, garnering ethnic votes etc etc On past form you’d have to doubt the Liberals are capable of that sort of ground game.
Obviously I left out Independent/Green challenges to Labor, and the possibility of the Nats winning back Dubbo and Tamworth from Indies, which could potentially blow out the scoreboard for Labor quite badly. I expect a couple of those Hunter seats should fall to Indies, but don’t have any local knowledge of that area to make any calls.
British Columbia 2001 the ruling New Democrats suffered an 18% swing and ended with 2 seats. Now they are leading in the polls for the 2013 election.
Canada seems to have more of those sort of results, due to a slightly more fractured party system (three majors, plus the Bloc Quebecois), and first past the post voting. There was even an election where one party won every single seat in the parliament back in the 80′s (and they did that from opposition). I reckon some of those results will make the best comparison to what’s about to happen to NSW Labor. Sometimes the parties have come back in one piece, sometimes they don’t. British Columbia was run by Social Credit for ages, now they just don’t exist.
The Labor party’s “save the furniture” strategy will be interesting too.
On my count there’s 15 solid seats on which the ALP can rely on – 13 in Western Sydney and 2 (Heffron and Maroubra) in the East.
If you look at regions, you can write off – the Sutherland Shire (3 seats), Central Coast (3 seats), Inner West (2 seats) and Coogee. I just dont know enough about the 3 country Labor seats.
The fight comes down to Wollongong (3 seats) vs. Independents
Newcastle (6 seats) vs independents
Inner City (2 seats) vs Greens
St George (3 seats) vs LIberals
Outer Sydney (6 seats) vs Liberals (Blue Mountains, Mulgoa, Riverstone,Londonderry,Camden, Wollondilly)
Key questions – what is the strength of the Wollongong/Newcastle independents?
How do the Liberals avoid preferencing the Greens? A just vote 1 strategy?
What’s the chance of a pullback in support in Outer Sydney/St George for Labor? Assume a 4% improvement to 58-42 suddenly all of these seats become competitive for the ALP. 4% off a low base in 2 months isnt out of the question.
The pattern of spending from the Government is interesting too. The train ticketing change last year was biased to outer sydney and welfare spending is up too. If there a linkage?
Millard – I think you are being too kind to the ALP. In my opinion morgieb is on the money with the seats he/she lists (100% of the GONES, 75% of the PROBABLYS, and 50% of the POSSIBLYS). I’d be interested in the seats you nominate in western Sydney as being safe. I don’t get 13.
I think you are going to find the ALP will receive an absolute baseball bat in the outer west/south west/south seats 25km+ from Sydney, particularly the ones which are primarily anglo based and rely heavily on public transport. It will be in the proportions of the Penrith by-election.
I reckon the ALP will end up with somewhere between 20-25 seats. This latest rubbish on the electricity sale will only hurt the ALP more.
Your question: “What’s the chance of a pullback in support in Outer Sydney/St George for Labor?”. I’d say very very slim at best and a possibility of getting worse. Labor’s best hope of a decent result was Keneally herself, but now even her integrity is in tatters over this electricity sale. This one won’t go away and it is too close to the election to recover from.
Millard Fillmore – having another look I think I can see where you get the 13 from. But I wouldn’t call either Kogarah or Campbelltown safe in this environment. This will be a GFC for the ALP.
I’d be amazed if Strathfield, Kogarah and Oatley don’t go Liberal – they were either Liberal-held or damn close for the first term of the Carr govt. Kogarah might have a margin of 17.7% now, but it was the most marginal ALP seat on just 0.7% before the 1999 election (after a redistribution), and it’s fairly safe to say this’ll be worse than 1999.
I reckon all seats under 15% are in serious danger except for Toongabbie (Nathan Rees), Charlestown (if that independent doesn’t run again), Macquarie Fields (they got their swing last time, after the by-election) and maybe Bathurst and Monaro (country seats might be a bit nicer than Sydney… I keep hearing good things about Steve Whan).
As for the seats Labor can’t lose, I’d tip anything from Smithfield down the list (18 seats), minus Kogarah and maybe Keira, Heffron and Wollongong, but plus Macquarie Fields and Toongabbie. That’s 16 seats:
Macquarie Fields
Toongabbie
Smithfield
Wallsend
Maroubra
Campbelltown
Fairfield
Shellharbour
Blacktown
Bankstown
Mount Druitt
Liverpool
Canterbury
Auburn
Cabramatta
Lakemba
That list might be a little bit wobbly, but Labor surely can’t lose those.
Bird of paradox – I’d agree with all of your analysis except Campbelltown being a certainty, but would still anticipate Labor to win that too. I’d love to see Hazem El Masri stand for the Liberals in Lakemba as has been touted. Nothing would surprise me!
The outer suburban seats especially will be poison for Labor. For instance, I think Oatley, East Hills and Parramatta are more likely to fall than the 3 country seats above them. Oatley, particularly, I think is a certainty for the Liberals. I also think Kogarah will be difficult for the ALP. Anything south and south/south-west particularly will be terribly difficult for Labor despite the margins. And some of them (like East Hills which I predict will fall given early polling) have always been ALP held.
I predict Labor will get about 25 seats which would generally equate to a 2PP for around 61-62/39-38 according to Peter Brent, allowing for the OPV effects.
Monaro will be interesting – I suspect that swing against the ALP will be less than in the Sydney metro area. Queanbeyan forms a substantial element of the seat and looks as much to Canberra as to Sydney for services like health – 25% of admissions to Canberra hospitals are from NSW. News also heavily Canberra focussed through the Canberra Times might provide something of a shock absorber for the ALP.
I reckon ALP is a chance to hold Monaro.
Reckon Bathurst and Monaro are gone. In Bathurst, the privatisation affair will hurt Labor (plus the sitting member’s quitting), and in Monaro, the swing is on, regardless of whether Whan has a personal vote.
Seats that Labor can’t lose – Toongabbie could go if the swing was really vicious, plus the pre-selection affair could hurt Labor here, Maroubra the demographics are changing and the Libs didn’t do too badly there in the federal election, Campbelltown the demographics are changing and the sitting MP’s quitting, Shellharbour it wouldn’t surprise me if a strong independent came up.
Can’t see Labor losing Heffron with Keneally as the sitting MP, Keira and Wollongong might be.
Unfortunately DB, Hazem isn’t contesting Lakemba, it’s Michael Hawatt iirc.
The seats Labor can’t lose….
Macquarie Fields (a big swing already happened here, plus Nola Fraser isn’t contesting)
Smithfield (a big swing already happened here, and it’s not as marginal as Macquarie Fields)
Wallsend
Fairfield (might’ve been in play had Tripodi still been there, but it was Labor’s 2nd safest seat in Sydney on federal results)
Blacktown
Bankstown
Heffron
Mount Druitt
Liverpool
Canterbury
Auburn
Cabramatta (Labor MP is a non-entity, the Liberal candidate [Dai Le] looks pretty strong, but I can’t see it swinging more than the by-election)
Lakemba
That’s 13 seats – Labor can have a rugby league team. Of course, there’ll be more than that, but it’s hard to see Labor getting more than 20 seats, or maybe 25.
Ok lets say somewhere between 13 and 31 seats for Labor.
Dont discount how many people are Labor voters but cant or wont vote Liberal. This group may have decided to vote against the ALP but where do they effectively park their votes? This’ll have an effect as the absolute ALP vote declines but will they preference to the Liberals? I doubt it – we are talking people in weatherboard houses, welfare recipients, minimum wage earners etc etc.
I think some seats wont change hands unless there are strong independents and in areas like Wollongong you havent had an elected council in 3 years, hence no platform for an independent to establish themselves. Unless there’s strong independents showing in Wollongong and Newcaslte regions the ALP seat tally will be closer to 30 than 13.
re….. Morgeib………… I’d suggest a change of govt…….. but of your 16 certainly gone …there could be upsets Gosford , Monaro and everything after Blue Mountains…. also Balmain & Newcastle depend on Liberal preferences
Millard Fillmore, in NSW, voters don’t have to preference. That’s what should really worry NSW – a lot of Independent & Greens voters will probably exhaust, whereas at federal level they have to eventually give their preference to Labor.
Mick Qulivan, Monaro could remain, but I see it similar to Eden-Monaro – a seat that goes with the government of day. Gosford will go – yes it has never voted Liberal before, but Labor are dead to Central Coast voters, who tend to go with the government of day.
Tate will probably get Liberal preferences, most likely they’ll exhaust in Balmain – the way both seats are going Tate & Parker will get a majority of primary votes.
morgieb – good call. That is exactly what I was thinking when reading Millard at 6.01pm. The disenchanted ALP voters would likely to be voting Green or a local councillor and not preferencing either the ALP or co-alition in a NSW election.
The ALP has some massive core supporter problems nationally. Federally, they are sitting at about 34% of primary in most polls to the co-alitions 42/43%. In NSW the primary ALP vote is around 25-27% to the coalitions 45% and unless there is a preference deal (and most don’t like preferences anyway) I can really see 25 seats becoming reality for the ALP. It will be interesting to see if the Greens and ALP have a preference swap arrangement. I am sure O’Farrell will not entertain preferences to the Greens in the inner Sydney seats.
Optional Preferential voting will work against Labor in most cases, it wont necessarily work against Labor in formerly safe seats where Labor is likely to come first or second on preferences.
Let’s Kogarah as an example. If you take the 2007 voting figures:
50% 2PP was 19533 votes
Labor’s 2PP was 67.7% or 26448 votes ie 2 to 1 over the Liberals
If you take the polling figures State wide from 2007 and the current opinion polls and extrapolate to Kogarah Labors primary vote would go down from 24301 votes to 15796 votes.
The Liberals primary vote in 2007 was 11,534.
Assuming the same number of people vote as in 2007, and a primary vote slump of 35% for the ALP (reflecting opinion polls) there would be 15428 votes which weren’t Labor or Liberal.
Hence the least worst option’s in order are;
1) 2nd preference ALP
2) Exhausted preference
3) vote Liberal
If everybody preferences the ALP needs only 26% of the preferences to win.
If say 60% exhaust the ALP needs only 18% or 1139 preference votes to win.
At 70% exhaust rate the ALP needs only 7.9% of preference votes to win or 368 votes.
Therefore depending on preference flows and exhaust rates Labor could win Kogarah with something like 60-75% of its 2007 2PP. I’d not be writing off Kogarah or other seats in the 15-20% range swing range just yet. People in suburbs like Allawah, Carlton, Kogarah etc dont have much form or practice of voting Liberal. The same applies in other seats in that band, Granville, Rockdale, East Hills etc.
Wollongong! One to watch
Danny – a bit too tough I feel, despite the problems with the ALP down there. The one on the biggest margin that I think might fall is Campbelltown.
I agree with Millard some observers quote 2PP of 60:40 but this isn’t like the 1970s when Labor polled primary votes in the high 50s. A lot of the anti-Labor vote will be dissipated among independents particularly in safe Labor seats where there is little Liberal presence on the ground.
On federal results, the pendulum would look like this….
NSW Electoral Pendulum (based on Fed2010 Results)
Labor (50) Coalition (40)
Margin Electorate (State margin)
0.2 Coogee (ALP 7.2)
0.2 Oatley (ALP 14.4)
0.5 Penrith (LIB 16.5 by-elec)
1.6 Clarence (NAT 11.6)
2.0 Mulgoa (ALP 11.1)
2.4 Bega (LIB 5.1)
3.0 Tweed (NAT 3.0)
3.1 Wollondilly (ALP 3.3)
3.2 Heathcote (ALP 8.8)
3.3 Kogarah (ALP 17.7)
3.4 Maroubra (ALP 16.1)
3.6 Gosford (ALP 4.9)
3.8 East Hills (ALP 14.1)
3.8 Strathfield (ALP 15.1)
3.9 Toongabbie (ALP 14.5)
4.1 Sydney (IND held)
4.6 The Entrance (ALP 4.9)
4.8 Smithfield (ALP 15.5)
5.1 Parramatta (ALP 13.7)
5.7 Granville (ALP 11.1)
5.7 Monaro (ALP 6.3)
6.1 Campbelltown (ALP 18.5)
6.2 Rockdale (ALP 10.3)
6.5 Macquarie Fields (ALP 11.1)
6.7 Lismore (NAT 10.0)
7.5 Maitland (ALP 9.7)
7.8 Lake Macquarie (IND held)
8.3 Blacktown (ALP 22.4)
8.4 Ballina (NAT 14.5)
9.0 Liverpool (ALP 26.9)
9.1 Cabramatta (ALP 29.0)
9.2 Blue Mountains (ALP 11.1)
9.7 Wyong (ALP 6.9)
11.4 Newcastle (ALP 17.8)
11.5 Bankstown (ALP 25.4)
12.0 Charlestown (ALP 14.6)
12.4 Swansea (ALP 10.8)
12.5 Canterbury (ALP 27.1)
12.7 Auburn (ALP 28.7)
13.2 Heffron (ALP 23.7)
13.4 Lakemba (ALP 34.0)
13.8 Mount Druitt (ALP 25.4)
13.9 Fairfield (ALP 20.4)
14.2 Keira (ALP 22.0)
14.7 Wallsend (ALP 15.8)
16.8 Shellharbour (ALP 26.8)
16.9 Balmain (ALP 17.8) (see note)
17.6 Wollongong (ALP 25.3)
19.6 Cessnock (ALP 12.4)
26.0 Marrickville (ALP 31.2) (See note)
Margin Electorate (State margin)
0.2 Londonderry (ALP 6.9)
0.9 Port Stephens (LIB 0.1)
1.1 Kiama (ALP 12.0)
1.4 Upper Hunter (NAT 14.7)
2.7 Ryde (LIB 13.0 by-elec)
2.8 Drummoyne (ALP 7.6)
3.3 Terrigal (LIB 8.4)
3.4 Bathurst (ALP 13.0)
4.0 Riverstone (ALP 10.1)
4.9 Camden (ALP 3.9)
5.5 Goulburn (LIB 8.6)
7.7 Epping (LIB 8.0)
8.0 South Coast (LIB 7.8)
9.0 Coffs Harbour (NAT 17.6)
9.2 Menai (ALP 2.7)
9.5 Miranda (ALP 0.8)
10.9 Hornsby (LIB 16.5)
11.0 Oxley (NAT 15.9)
11.2 Manly (LIB 21.8)
11.2 Myall Lakes (NAT 17.4)
11.9 Lane Cove (LIB 12.4)
12.7 Burrinjuck (NAT 17.3)
12.9 Baulkham Hills (LIB 10.5)
13.4 North Shore (LIB 19.2)
14.3 Orange (NAT 17.2)
14.4 Murray-Darling (NAT 10.1)
14.6 Albury (LIB 19.0)
14.6 Willoughby (LIB 21.0)
14.8 Wakehurst (LIB 17.3)
15.0 Wagga Wagga (LIB 13.0)
15.5 Pittwater (LIB 29.8)
16.7 Cronulla (LIB 17.5)
17.9 Castle Hill (LIB 19.1)
18.4 Ku-ring-gai (LIB 29.0)
19.5 Barwon (NAT 18.9)
20.5 Dubbo (IND held)
21.2 Davidson (LIB 24.7)
22.0 Murrumbidgee (NAT 16.1)
22.6 Hawkesbury (LIB 19.3)
23.3 Vaucluse (LIB 17.9)
- -
Independent (3)
Port Macquarie (IND held)
Northern Tablelands (IND held)
Tamworth (IND held)
The above was pinched from Antony Green’s latest blog, who also has some comments on what conclusions can and can’t be drawn from it. The most interesting bits to me: the Greens finished third on federal figures in Balmain, and some seats had differences of above 20% between state and federal figures.
Yeah I will admit that I stole it from Antony Green’s blog – I tried something similar and got similar-ish results. I only did like 40-something seats, so I didn’t post it up.
Bathurst will go to Paul Toole (Nat). His father father almost won the seat from Clough and was later fixed up by an ICAC enquiry (strange that). Wooloongong may well go to a strong independent – I know of at least one with a large following. As for the West of Sydney, just sit around a railway platform or a bus stop for half an hour.
morgieb – interesting blog on Jan 7. I think it goes to show that the ALP are in for a real tough time in the south and south west.
It’s time for some individual seat polling. We may have to wait until after Australia Day I guess.
Millard Fillmore – the public polling you mean. Well I agree. Some of private polling in the south west (30km from Sydney) suggests the ALP won’t win a seat in the anglo parts (including Campbelltown, which I find hard to believe). Obviously such polling is subject to a high margin for error given a very small number of respondents.
I’ll stick with my tip that the ALP will get 25 seats. If this were a more conservative state, it would probably be 10.
We also need some individual seat betting markets.
Does anybody have a report on where the ALP is campaigning?
In the St George area, no campaigning to date in Oatley and Rockdale but the ALP out in Kogarah today.The train stations will be a good indicator post January 26th.
I guess its kind of boring to fill in the Liberal seats, its the 40% of seats which will have a quiet election.
I think Labor will suffer from a high informal vote in it’s western Sydney seats, like in the federal election last year (up to 14% informal in Blaxland). Consequently some of these seats might be more likely to be won by the Liberals than they seem based on the margins above. If that many people vote informally again it could make a big difference, and I think there will me even more informal votes in March.
Informal vote is way lower at state level because most informal votes are because they didn’t number the boxes properly (you have to number every box, whereas some people don’t), whereas at state level you can just vote 1 and your vote still counts.
morgieb – You’re right about the lower informal vote for state elections. Sorry, I meant a proportionally larger increase.
I don’t know if the Electoral Commission have or are going to release a report into the informal vote, but most of the commentry suggested a lot of the increase was because people left their ballots blank. They usually voted Labor, but didn’t support Labor’s current decisions and couldn’t bring themselves to vote Liberal, Green or otherwise. I think this sentiment will be even stronger at the state election
In Blaxland the informal vote increased by 5%. It’s hard to imagine an extra one in twenty people (and almost as many in surrounding electorates) forgot how to fill out their ballot when there hadn’t been a change in the system or a recent state elections. Even if only half of them were “informal protest votes” this leaves an extra 2.5% of people who refused to vote (plus a 2.5% drop in turnout). With the high dissatifaction with all polical parties in NSW more people will take this path and increase.
Most of this probably won’t make the slightest difference though. It was mostly in Labor’s ultra-safe seats (Blaxland overlaps with seats like Bankstown). Maybe it could effect some of the more intermediate seats (e.g. Smithfield) if it comes down to one or two percent, but only maybe.
Just thought I’d let everyone know that Antony Green’s guide to the election is now live:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/
Antony Green Election Guide now out.
Interesting Antony’s assessment – roughly
Safe Labor / Likely Labor retain
1/16
Labor will need to spend resources to keep 2
TOTAL SAFE = 19
Possible Labor retain/struggle to keep/ Battleground etc
BATTLEGROUND = 11
Likely Green = 2
Liberal Gain/Likely Liberal Gain = 12
Possible Liberal Gain = 6
So on Antony’s ratings , safe for Labor = 19, battleground,could go either way = 17
In otherwords worst case = 19 seats best case = 36 seats.
Hey Ben – well done in finishing this – pseph heads get a double bang with both you and Antony posting/finishing this weekend!
Millard Fillmore – I see Mackerras is much less positive on the ALP’s chances. He says 20 seats
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/liberals-set-to-win-majority-in-their-own-right/story-e6frgczx-1225995956604.
I am more inclined to go with 25. Expect 30% swings in some seats, particularly in the outer-southern suburban areas of Sydney. I am told Alan Ashton is starting to make some other plans.
Spare a thought for the 100 families DB.
Some of these people will have no income whatsoever coming into their homes following March 26.
Only those who came after 2003… anyone with a longer tenure than that has income for life
Pete D – I think he is referring to staffers etc. Millard, that’s politics and why I’d never do it unless I didn’t need the money.
Sportingbet individual seat odds are out. Interesting Heffron and Wollongong are 10-1 odds for the Libs. Toongabbie is line ball with Rees just in front in terms of odds.
Sportingbet are weird. Why don’t they at least have an ‘Any other candidate’ option? Greens are more likely to win Heffron than Libs, Independent more likely to win Wollongong than Libs, and what about the Independent in Kiama?
ALP Head Office has abandoned everything up to 15% and withdrawn funding bar:
Swansea
Macquarie Fields
Granville
Toongabbie
ALP candidates under this mark have been told to fend for themselves. Its just stunning.
I’m going to close this comment thread now. Please use my new post as an open thread on NSW politics.