Longman by-election, 2018

Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Susan Lamb is expected to resign due to her being a dual citizen at the time of nomination for the 2016 election, after the High Court clarified the constitutional requirements on May 9, 2018.

Margin – ALP 0.8%

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.

Candidates

  • Lloyd Russell (Liberal Democrats)
  • Jim Saleam (Australia First)
  • Gregory Bell (Democratic Labour)
  • Jackie Perkins (Independent)
  • James Noonan (Science Party)
  • Matthew Stephen (One Nation)
  • John Reece (People’s Party)
  • Susan Lamb (Labor)
  • Trevor Ruthenberg (Liberal National)
  • Blair Verrier (Country Party)
  • Gavin Behrens (Greens)

Assessment
Longman is an extremely marginal seat. Labor benefited in 2016 from a favourable how-to-vote preference recommendation from One Nation. Without that preference flow the seat would’ve likely stayed with the LNP, and a change in recommendation may set Labor back. This seat could well flip to the LNP if they contest the by-election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 34,35939.0-5.8
Susan Lamb Labor 31,16135.4+4.7
Michelle PedersenOne Nation8,2939.4+9.4
Ian Bell Greens 3,8654.4+0.5
Will SmithFamily First3,0023.4+1.1
Frances McdonaldDrug Law Reform2,6773.0+3.0
Brad KennedyKatter’s Australian Party1,5971.8-1.0
Greg RiddellIndependent1,1111.3+1.3
Rob LawIndependent9451.1+1.1
Caleb WellsIndependent8300.9-0.1
Stephen BeckArts Party2280.3+0.3
Informal8,2178.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 44,72950.8+7.7
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 43,33949.2-7.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone.

Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

Labor won a large two-party-preferred majority of 60.8% in Caboolture-Morayfield and a smaller majority of 53.9% in Burpengary. The LNP won majorities in the two less populous areas: 52.9% in Pumicestone and 54.2% in the west.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 7.8% in Pumicestone to 10.9% in the west.

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield10.160.815,88118.0
Burpengary8.453.914,94217.0
Pumicestone7.847.18,96910.2
West10.945.85,3596.1
Other votes11.045.814,47916.4
Pre-poll9.048.228,43832.3

Election results in Longman at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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175 COMMENTS

  1. Bennee
    It is a fair proposition, but access is not influence. Ask Richo. He has written more, & better than i could. He is also way smarter than me !. Opening a door, is not getting your own way.

    My comments about Public funding are not as partisan as you seem to think. I simply don’t feel we get value, & the waste appalls me. I’m unconvinced that the humbling process of seeking , & advocating (not “grovelling”) for donations is not a healthy one for out of control political ego, & fixation.

    It is surprising that you don’t see the difference between union donations, & others. One is for control, & power, the other is for access, & the chance of advocacy. How can these be the same, or equal ?

    On a personal note you will be amused to learn that WD junior works for Sydney Ferries. As such he is an MUA – now CFMMEU member. As a Type 8 Fixation he delights in aggressively challenging the old man, on the principles of organised labour !!!. Particularly the accountability of said labour, as opposed to contract labour.

    Knowing the shakti (sanscrit for power) & determination of WD junior this has only just begun !!. WD is in for a bloody, punishing, & pulverising future, on this subject !!. Any attempt to avoid engaging with Junior would be seen as WEAK !, & immediately ridiculed. An appropriate ( & if possible a powerful) response is always required with Junior!!.

    Mrs WD (his stepmother) always finds great amusement in Juniors attempts to get reactions from me. Sounds tame doesn’t it. It hasn’t been, & it won’t be … If you are amused, ill keep you posted !!

  2. @WD

    I don’t think the Husar saga is going to affect much in the byelection – if you asked the average Longman voter about it, I doubt they would know what you were talking about let alone the ins and outs.

    The feeling on the ground really is the voters are not interested in voting and just sick of the campaign.

    @FtB

    Yes, Woodford/Mt Mee and Bribie Island are favourable for the LNP, this seat is still characterised by Caboolture/Morayfield – when I think of these areas, I just think rough Labor areas. Even though Longman has been moreso won by Liberals/LNP, when thinking of the perception of the area, it really ought not to be.

    I think it is still going to be close and I hope the LNP wins (as much as I’d love it to be comfortably and will be working to ensure during my shift on Saturday!)

  3. Even with the most benign interpretation, access is influence. It’s very easy to get into a bubble, especially for busy politicians.

    Ideas like tax cuts for the rich or for big business are actually quite fringe in terms of popularity, but if the people you’re seeing most of the time are talking about how good it would be, the idea seems much more normal to vote for. Same goes for granting that a development approval, when you see much more of the developer than any of the area’s residents, you can really buy into their way of thinking.

    It is possible that people underrate what can be achieved by phoning your local MP’s office and advocating on one of the many issues that isn’t a major contentious one. However this is in a system where so many are struggling to keep their head above water to put in the effort with their local MP, and a widespread disengagement with politics has been fostered over a long time.

    You might have better luck in a marginal seat like Longman, but keep in mind that it’s those backbenchers that are going to be asking the Dorothy Dixers in question time.

  4. BJA Ryan
    Nothing inflames the punters more than abuse of entitlements, except Pollies then lying about it. Albo then threw a Molotov cocktail at BS today, exposing the duplicity. Surely that counts ?

  5. There are at least 3 compelling reasons the LNP should win tomorrow . However my gut tells me they won’t. It is a very odd feeling.

    1/ the BS factor
    2/ PHON preferences
    3/ Voter rage in Longman.

    I think it should be enough, but i don’t feel that it will be enough. So my call must be Lamb to survive.

  6. Surely this thread has to hold a site record for # of comments? Longman has by far been the most hotly contested seat, my final verdict is the LNP will break the trend and take back this seat with a small swing of 1-1.5%.

  7. Alex J
    That is a laudable sentiment. Let the volounteers be spared any unpleasantness.

    Seems i am in a minority !!. would love to be wrong too !!.

  8. AtWoodford since 0800 all pleasant. Only candidateto turn up has been Blair Verrier for Country Party. No wonder Country residents think they have been forgotten. My final prediction LNP with result not known till end of week.

  9. I should note for clarity that “pleasant” does not mean “successful”.

    Can anyone comment on how those cardboard cutouts of Pauline Hanson went? The crueler part of me was hoping for gusts of wind all day across the seat!

  10. Labour Wins, As of now 55-45 lead in the TPP for them, Which is quite surprising considering the seats political history has leaned conservative.

  11. Sigh, this has been a disappointing end to a beautiful day in SEQ, not being quite as anticipated.

    Only 1 Pauline at Burpengary SS (no one cared about it) and only 1-2 unionist. Apparently there were union signs floating around without the printers name on them, which is a no-no.

    Just as many taking both Labor & One Nation cards only, as taking Labor cards only.

  12. Alex J cutout of PH was photographed by media who love a spectacle. PHON candidate had himself photographed with sign and tried to charge $5 to have selfie taken with IT THAT MUST BE OBEYED. No takers that I saw. Their HTV was very good. Dot point policies on back. Far better than inane slogans by Majors or candidate bio by most others.
    Cut outs were a copy of similar Bob Katter cut outs. Cut outs were labelled on back property of PHON National Office and must be returned to NationL Office. Obviously they suffer from internal pilfering.

  13. @Daniel

    This seat conservative history is not represented that its a generally should be a Labor seat and has a lot of working class voters. The fact Mal Brough held it four terms was due to the fact he worked the seat hard and was a popular MP at the time. Brough during this period was considered a nice guy and leadership material. The Peter Slipper/James Ashby scandal changed that perception.

    John O’Sullivan threw the seat away with comments at a Shopping Centre as his time as a Labor Mp. I generally think that Susan Lamb can turn this seat into a Labor stronghold if she works the seat hard and performs the way Catherine King has done with the seat of Ballarat.

  14. Would be interesting to see the preference of the minors and how they flowed beyond the 2PP did they have ON ahead of both Lab & LNP…Looking at them on the night at my sole booth I was working on being counted I felt that the majority of minor party votes went to ON and had Lib and Lab very low on the card…If say most of the minors don’t run at the federal election as it is just some other seat without the publicity the primary vote of ON could increase again by as much as 5-6%…

  15. The fact that Mal Brough held the seat for four terms was down to the fact that the Howard government was in power for four terms. Indeed like the Howard govt, Brough barely won a second term. Additionally the seat extended further north into the southern hinterland of the sunshine coast. Brough was already sniffing out a move to Fisher when the AEC redrew the seat prior to the 2007 election.

    I tend to agree that Longman is not a conservative seat. But I don’t think you can call it a Labor seat either. If One Nation hadn’t directed preferences to Labor at the last election then Wyatt Roy would probably still be the MP.

  16. Political Nightwatchman I agree that Susan Lamb could turn Longman into a safe ALP seat. To do this she needs to remember that a leopard does not change its spots and no matter how much she would like the seat to be full of left leaning Yuppies it is NNT. Seat is working class and Bill Shorten and Sally McMahon showed at their town hall meetings that the ALP voter base can be motivated by appealing to the values of the cream of the working class.
    Read Susan Lamb’s speeches in Hansard ( or on open Australia) and you see a different person to the campaigner of last few weeks. Susan Lamb needs to cataract campaigning now for 2019 election. She claims to have made personal contact with 40% of electorate yet she is only becomes electorally visible when an election is on.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson 2@bigpond.com

  17. No doubt the ALP know how big of a factor Ruthenberg was in turning voters off the LNP, which will be the main factor in how hard Susan Lamb works the electorate between now and May 2019.

    However it bodes well for Labor that in a high profile byelection, the LNP couldn’t muster up anyone better than a man who didn’t live in the electorate and copped an 18.6% swing against him last time he ran. Who knows what kind of “talent” will put their hand up in the general?

  18. John, I met Ruthenberg for first time early in campaign and in one conversation he persuaded me not to veto any how to vote that preferences him. After hearing him talk at ACL candidates forum he made me think I should have preferences him. By that stage I had voted. Any one who met him and spoke to him would have been persuaded to at least consider him. Any one who has worked with MPs would know that the chances of him having actually written his Parliamentary Handbook would have been very slim and anyone who has proofed a document knows how easy it is to make errors. I thought he handled the medal error as professionally as it could be handled.
    The result in Longman was a disaster for LNP hopefully it will lead to end of Party and Nats can take back control of Qld coalition. Bring back Joh type policies coal generators ,dams and State Development. We need to get rid of Newman underlings.

  19. Big Trev was pretty good and in person quite personable and in all honesty probably learnt a lot from the initial experience of being a State MP. Now looking at the funding Labor threw at this one I think nobody else had a hope of winning regardless of poll numbers. The budget they used was 10:1 everyone else.

  20. 2PP preference flow data by candidate is now up…

    Some rather interesting figures there. Only the Lib Dems (52-48) and One Nation (68-32) preferences favoured the LNP.

    DLP to ALP at 81% was the strongest flow.

  21. Quite odd for such a strong DLP to Labor flow. I think this was the first time they’ve been listed as “Labour DLP” on the ballot paper?

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