ALP 18.2%
Incumbent MP
Tony Burke, since 2004.
Geography
Inner west and south-western Sydney. Watson covers most of the Canterbury, Burwood and Strathfield local government areas and parts of Bankstown. Key suburbs include Canterbury, Campsie, Lakemba, Wiley Park, Punchbowl, Greenacre, Strathfield, Enfield and Burwood.
Redistribution
Watson moved north out of the St George area and more into the inner west of Sydney. Watson previously covered parts of Hurstville and Rockdale council areas and southern parts of Canterbury, including Beverley Hills, Kingsgrove, Bexley North and Earlwood. The northern boundary of Watson previously followed the northern boundary of Canterbury LGA, but has since expanded across into Bankstown, Strathfield and Burwood LGAs, taking in large parts of the abolished seat of Lowe. The redistribution reduced the ALP’s margin from 20.3% to 18.2%.
History
The Division of Watson is a recent creation, having been created in 1993 to replace the Division of St George. In its short history it has always been a safe Labor seat.
The seat was first won in 1993 by the ALP’s Leo McLeay. McLeay had previously held the neighbouring seat of Grayndler since 1979, and had served as Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1989 until shortly before the 1993 election, when he was forced to resign over allegations of a false compensation claim.
McLeay was reelected at the 1996, 1998 and 2001 elections before retiring at the 2004 election.
The seat was won in 2004 by the ALP’s Tony Burke, who had held a seat in the NSW Legislative Council since March 2003. He moved immediately to the Labor shadow ministry in 2004, and has served as Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry since the election of the Rudd government in 2007.
Candidates
- Tony Burke (Labor) – Member for Watson since 2004, previously Member of the Legislative Council 2003-2004.
- Mark Sharma (Independent)
- Ken Nam (Liberal) – Canterbury councillor.
- Christine Donayre (Greens) – Burwood councillor.
Political situation
This is a very safe Labor seat and Burke will be easily re-election in 2010.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Burke | ALP | 49,652 | 61.81 | +5.43 |
| Philip Mansour | LIB | 20,957 | 26.09 | -5.54 |
| Christine Donayre | GRN | 5,302 | 6.60 | +0.22 |
| Merry Foy | FF | 2,011 | 2.50 | +1.04 |
| Josephine Sammut | CDP | 1,988 | 2.47 | +1.89 |
| Ronald Poulsen | IND | 424 | 0.53 | +0.14 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Burke | ALP | 56,499 | 70.33 | +5.77 |
| Philip Mansour | LIB | 23,835 | 29.67 | -5.77 |
Booth breakdown
Watson is divided between four local government areas: Burwood, Strathfield, Bankstown and Canterbury. A majority of voters live in Canterbury LGA. Canterbury has been broken into two halves of roughly equal size, with Belmore, Canterbury, Campsie and Harcourt in the east and Lakemba and Wiley Park in the west.
The ALP won about 75% across Canterbury, with about two thirds of the two-party preferred vote in the Watson part of Bankstown and 63% in Burwood. The ALP won a slim majority in Strathfield, with the only two booths won by the Liberal Party in Watson lying on the northern edge of the seat around Strathfield (Strathfield Central and Strathfield West).
Polling booths in Watson. Canterbury East in blue, Canterbury West in orange, Bankstown in yellow, Burwood in red, Strathfield in green.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| Canterbury East | 6.55 | 75.18 | 17,351 | 26.34 |
| Canterbury West | 5.50 | 74.91 | 16,880 | 25.63 |
| Bankstown | 5.45 | 67.12 | 13,461 | 20.44 |
| Burwood | 7.91 | 63.00 | 11,585 | 17.59 |
| Strathfield | 5.86 | 50.55 | 6,592 | 10.01 |
| Other votes | 6.67 | 66.50 | 14,423 |
Polling booths in Watson, showing results of the 2007 election.
I find it interesting that the booths in Northern Strathfield seem to be solidly Liberal whereas the rest of the electorate is the otehr way, Do you think this will change because it is now a safe Labour seat as opposed to the marginal seat of Lowe, which they came from (I think, please correct me if im wrong)?
Adam,
I’m planning on doing the guide to Reid (including most of the old Lowe) quite soon, so I guess we’ll see how that trend continues further north.
Mind you, Lowe hasn’t really been that marginal in recent elections.
Indeed, especially since Strathfield is held by a 15 odd% margin as a State seat.
Ben, would you consider opening a ‘general discussion’ thread for topics not specifically linked to an electorate or posting?
For example, I was interested in peoples opinions on this:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/02/2834445.htm?section=justin
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/nsw-to-protect-riverina-red-gums-20100302-pfvc.html
“More than 100,000 hectares of river red gum forests in southern NSW will be protected, including almost 70,000 hectares as national parks, under new state government legislation.
State Environment Minister Frank Sartor on Tuesday announced the government would adopt most of a December Natural Resources Commission (NRC) report, under which huge swathes of state forests will be protected from logging.
In an announcement which has failed to get the support of either environmental groups or loggers, Mr Sartor said 107,210 hectares of river red gums would be protected.
A total of 69,413 hectares will be turned into national parks, while a further 16,308 hectares will become regional parks and 21,489 hectares turned into indigenous protected areas.
The NRC recommended 72,000 hectares be protected as national park.”
The Gov did very very close to what the NRC recommended and above for protected-but-not-national-parks areas but was slammed by both environmental groups (TWS press release didn’t even mention that 70,000 hectares is now national park) and loggers groups and the local community (re: logger community). Ian Cohen, who most of you know I have a lot of time for, came out and labelled it pathetic. But it was what the NRC recommended and was well above mainstream expectations. So was it a fair decision, a slightly dissapointing decision but one should still be commended for what it achieved or a pathetic decision?
Hi Hamish
Well, given that River Red Gums are now existing more as remnants, and that what was proposed originally covered much of the large section of Millewa, this decision is pathetic by comparison. I suppose the question that should be asked is, was the NRC recommendation based on anything more than political compromise (ie; some left for logging and some put in conservation). What always disappoints me is that commissions such as the NRC always seem to use the present as the base line, so decisions on logging seem to be saying “oh, well, we should keep some for the loggers and keep only some for conservation, as that’s balanced”, when in reality the loggers (and agriculture) have had the lions share of the forest already. When a government’s at deaths door (as the NSW ALP are) they could do more, but maybe they are working on the basis that if they don’t do too much the Libs wont touch it when they win. So I wouldn’t be expecting any Clintonesque proclamations at this stage.
That’s some fair points, thanks Stewart. So is the level of preservation a Government fault of an NRC fault? I guess it’s fairly linked.
I had a look into the NRC which claims that “The Natural Resources Commission provides credible, independent advice to the NSW Government on managing the state’s natural resources. The NRC reports to the Premier, reflecting its independent nature.”
I also read that this needs to go before Parliament in April and that the Nats at least are opposing it (as one would expect). It will need Green support to pass the LC. I would assume that they would support it, even if they are dissapointed in the level (though honestly, given the NRC recommendations I don’t think anyone could have expected more this time around).
Next, marine park for South West Rocks please!
Re Strathfield – that area was marginal at the state level during the 1990s.
Strathfield itself is pretty Liberal and affluent, but areas around it (Burwood, Croydon, Ashfield, etc) are less affluent, more ethnically mixed, and much stronger for Labor. This generally tips the balance to Labor in the local seats.
I’d expect the Liberals to pick up Strathfield at the 2011 NSW election though.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/reess-plan-to-save-redgums-faces-the-axe-20100302-pgex.html
Nats, Libs and Shooters to oppose national park ‘on face value’ because of the effect on the logging communities.
Greens say that don’t be surprised if they oppose it because it is insufficient, though I can’t see how blocking this much will increase the size of the park or stop the 5 year logging phase out in 20% of it – seems to be to me cutting off the nose to spite the face. No doubt someone out there has an insiders insight into why the Greens would oppose a national park given the alternative (i.e no national park)?
I’d guess that Moyes would support it and there’s no point guessing what Nile will vote for. If a votes 21-21 in the LC does it go to a speakers vote or is it a fail to pass?
Cheers.
The Strathfield booths are the last outpost of the middle-class inner West that used to provide 3 safe conservative state seats and which made Lowe and Evans mostly Liberal. State Labor didn’t win Ashfield until 1976.
Looked this up the other day but forgot to post it: The Liberals won those two Strathfield booths at the state election as well.
I moved to South Strathfield when it had a Liberal MP ( who soon became an independant) Now my home is in one of the country’s safest Labor Seats.
As the Greens want to abolish the Australian Building Commission, seek to develop an ecologically sustainable environment, want to increase funding for public education, want the immediate return of our troops, and respect the rights of all people, including refugees. I will be voting Greens.
The Libs are running local councillor Ken Nam.
http://nsw.liberal.org.au/federal-candidates/ken-nam.html
Tony Burke will win Easily? LOL..No wonder you work For Greens!
Mark Sharma
Found this quote on http://dimpto.com/
“Found this “How to Vote Card” recently. It belongs to Labor Party and You can find it from one of Early Polling Centres. Now anybody who knows Watson Area Well would have expected that Labor Party would put Liberals Ken Lam as last preference but guess who is Last Preference on Labor “How To Vote” in Watson. It is NONE Other than Yours Truly.
Now the only message I get from this move from Labor Party is that they are afraid of Losing to Mark Sharma which then again I can understand because everywhere I go I hear same thing ” I will Vote for You Mark”
My prediction: 1-2% swing to Liberals.
Looks like everyone here got this one wrong. Tony Burke scored one of the biggest anti-Labor swings (9% overall) in the country. Morris Iemma was on radio this morning claiming it was up to 20% in some booths). Burke will be regretting he was given to job of Labor’s chief dog-whistler of immigration now. The Libs’ Scott Morrison can get away with it in the very anglo Shire, but in this multi-cultural heartland, the racist xenophobia inherent in Labor’s phoney “Big Australia” waffling went down like a lead balloon. They successfully turned a very safe seat into a marginal one. Brilliant.
Liberals got a swing of 10% too, however likely the 10% Labor swing split to Greens and Liberals, and the Liberals picked up all the right-wing minor party votes that didn’t run this time.
The independent ran on a pro-business, pro-immigration & multiculturalism platform that probably picked up votes from Labor & Liberal as well.