LIB 8.8%

Incumbent MP
Tony Abbott, since 1994.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman and parts of Neutral Bay, Allambie, Brookvale and Curl Curl. The seat covers the entirety of Manly and Mosman council areas, as well as parts of North Sydney and Warringah. The largest proportion of the population lives in Warringah.

Redistribution
The entire City of North Sydney was contained within the electorate of the same name at the 2007 election, and the 2009 redistribution transferred part of the LGA into Warringah, particularly areas around Neutral Bay.

The seat of Warringah also lost territory in its northwestern corner to its three neighbouring electorates. Warringah previously covered parts of Middle Cove and Castle Cove in Willoughby LGA and parts of East Lindfield and East Killara in Ku-ring-gai, and these areas were transferred to North Sydney and Bradfield respectively. Warringah also lost parts of Forestville north of Warringah Road to the seat of Mackellar.

The inclusion of parts of North Sydney and exclusion of more conservative areas deeper in the north of Sydney saw Abbott’s margin cut from 9.5% to 8.8%.

History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at every election, the one exception being 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments.

The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.

Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.

Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.

Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.

Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.

Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.

MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.

MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.

Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the only serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.

Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.

Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a frontbench ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.

Candidates

• Alexander Gutman (Sex Party) – known better as comedian Austen Tayshus.
• Matthew Drake-Brockman (Greens)
• Hugh Zochling (Labor)
• Tony Abbott (Liberal) – Member for Warringah since 1994, Leader of the Opposition since December 2009.
• Kenneth Cook (Secular Party)

Political situation
There is little Labor presence in Warringah, and despite the single-figure margin there is little prospect of the ALP defeating Abbott any time in the future. Even in the most progressive areas in Manly, the main opposition to the Liberal Party comes from an independent coalition that held the state seat of Manly from 1991 to 2007 and held the mayoralty of Manly from 2004 to 2008. That coalition lost the seat of Manly in 2007 and the Manly mayoralty in 2008, suggesting the Liberals have a strong hold on the area for the near future.

2007 result

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

These results do not take into consideration the effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Warringah covers all of Manly and Mosman LGAs and parts of North Sydney and Warringah. I have kept booths separated between the four LGAs, although in the case of Warringah and Manly suburb names cross council boundaries, meaning booths such as North Manly and Manly Vale are included in Warringah. While Middle Harbr booth lies in Mosman, I have included those votes cast in the seat of North Sydney in 2007 in the North Sydney LGA figures, as the 2007 boundary followed the local government boundary.

The ALP’s strongest booth was the central booth in Manly, but their strongest area was North Sydney, presumably related to the fact that they had run a serious campaign in that seat in 2007, with celebrity candidate Mike Bailey. The Liberal Party polled over 60% in Mosman and around 57-58% in the other three areas. The Greens also performed much stronger in the areas that were contained in the seat in 2007, despite traditionally doing quite well in the City of North Sydney. Their best area was Manly council area, where they polled almost 15%.

Polling booths in Warringah. Warringah in red, Manly in blue, Mosman and North Sydney in yellow (North Sydney booths are west of green line).

Polling booths in Warringah, showing results of the 2007 election.