NAT 13.7%
Incumbent MP
Mark Coulton, since 2007.
Geography
Parkes covers large parts of western NSW, stretching from Dubbo, Mudgee and Wellington in the southeastern corner of the seat to Moree in the northeast and Bourke in the northwest. It covers most of Mid-Western Regional Council and all of 18 other local government areas, namely Dubbo, Lachlan, Narromine, Wellington, Gwydir, Moree Plains, Narrabri, Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Cobar, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Walgett, Warren and Warrumbungle.
Redistribution
Parkes expanded in the recent redistribution to cover a much larger geographic area. The seat previously covered a smaller covering those parts of NSW to the north of Dubbo, Wellington and Mudgee. The redistribution saw some changes to the boundary with the seats of New England and Hunter, and saw Parkes take on a number of local government areas in the far west of NSW from Calare.
History
The seat of Parkes was created as part of the expansion of the federal Parliament in 1984 as a seat in the west of NSW. It has always been held by the National Party. It shares its name with an earlier seat of Parkes, which was located in suburban Sydney from Federation until its abolition in 1969. The seat of Parkes is named after early NSW premier Henry Parkes, rather than the town of Parkes, which is not contained within the seat.
Parkes was first won in 1984 by National Party candidate Michael Cobb. Cobb held the seat for 14 years, retiring in 1998 after being convicted of offenses related to rorting his travel expenses. He was replaced by Tony Lawler, who held the seat for one term, retiring in 2001.
The seat was won in 2001 by John Cobb. Cobb served as a junior minister in the Howard government from 2005 to 2007. The redistribution before the 2006 election shifted the boundaries of Parkes towards the abolished seat of Gwydir, with much of the northwest transferred into Calare, and Cobb was elected as the Member for Calare. He was succeeded in Parkes by former Mayor of Gwydir Shire, Mark Coulton.
Candidates
- Matt Parmeter (Greens)
- John Clements (Independent)
- Andrew Brooks (Labor)
- Mark Coulton (Nationals) – Member for Parkes since 2007.
- Mick Colless (Independent)
Political situation
This seat will definitely remain with the Nationals.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Coultan | NAT | 38,574 | 46.77 | -15.02 |
| Margaret Patriarca | ALP | 20,922 | 25.37 | +0.72 |
| Tim Horan | IND | 17,098 | 20.73 | +20.73 |
| Matt Parmeter | GRN | 2,496 | 3.03 | -1.24 |
| Bruce Haigh | IND | 2,153 | 2.61 | -1.21 |
| Michael Kiely | CCC | 939 | 1.14 | +1.14 |
| Richard Stringer | CEC | 287 | 0.35 | -0.75 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Coultran | NAT | 51,985 | 63.04 | -4.52 |
| Margaret Patriarca | ALP | 30,484 | 36.96 | +4.52 |
Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
There were 119 regular polling booths in the new seat of Parkes at the 2007 election, including 28 booths where less than 100 formal votes were cast. These were spread across 19 local government areas from Mudgee to Moree and Bourke.
I have divided the 19 local government areas into seven geographical areas. Dubbo and Warrumbungle council areas are treated separately. The councils covering Mudgee and Wellington have been combined into one area. The remaining parts of the seat were divided into the following:
- Central – Coonamble, Gilgandra, Narromine, Warren
- North-East – Gwydir, Moree Plains, Narrabri
- North-West – Bourke, Brewarrina, Walgett
- Western – Bogan, Cobar, Lachlan
The Nationals dominate in all parts of the seat, with their strongest area being in the north-east and their weakest in the southeastern corner, covering the towns of Mudgee and Wellington, where the ALP won a number of booths.
Independent candidate Tim Horan also polled strongly in the seat of Parkes in 2007, with his best booths being those parts of the Central area in Parkes, while performing well in northern parts of the seat. Horan did not appear on the ballot in the Western area and parts of the Central, North-East and North-West areas.
Polling booths in Calare. North-West in red, North-East in green, Warrumbungle in yellow, Mudgee-Wellington in blue, Dubbo in orange, Central in pink, Western in light green.
| Voter group | GRN % | IND %* | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| Dubbo | 3.50 | 20.55 | 61.76 | 18,006 | 25.21 |
| North-East | 1.77 | 26.76 | 69.74 | 15,003 | 21.01 |
| Mudgee-Wellington | 3.99 | 14.09 | 54.74 | 13,070 | 18.33 |
| Central | 1.61 | 36.67 | 65.93 | 9,020 | 12.63 |
| Western | 1.87 | 66.39 | 6,727 | 9.42 | |
| Warrumbungle | 2.76 | 16.71 | 63.71 | 5,178 | 7.25 |
| North-West | 3.56 | 25.80 | 59.30 | 4,415 | 6.18 |
| Other votes | 3.39 | 18.32 | 65.39 | 17,990 |
*Votes received by independent Tim Horan in Parkes. Vote in North-East, North-West and Central only covers those areas covered by Parkes in 2007.
Polling booths in Parkes, showing results of the 2007 election. Click to enlarge
Polling booths in Parkes, showing results of the 2007 election in Dubbo
Polling booths in Parkes, showing results of the 2007 election around Wellington
Polling booths in Parkes, showing results of the 2007 election around Mudgee
While Labor can’t win this seat, these kinds of seats have proved fertile territory to good independents (see New England). Tim Horan, for example, was only a few percent away from coming very close.
I’ve read internet gossip that Horan may consider running again but nothing firm.
Labor candidate here is Andrew Brooks.
John Clements is standing. He should be a good candidate in place of Tim Horan. I am sure he will give Coulton a run for his money. He has a good background on the whole electorate and has a good understanding of Water issues facing the electorate. He has worked in many places and has the chance to avoid party antics. A voice for the people not the party. More and more people are disgruntled with the parties then ever before and if they were doing their job we would not need independents to stand. There is not much choice that is why we need to go for an independent. Check him out on his new website. http://www.johnclements.com.au
Parkes has been name-dropped in the latest Insiders as a possible fall to an Independent. I assume it is John Clements; can anyone local clarify?
It’s Clements, but I don’t know if he is high profile enough to take the seat. But another conservative independent disillusioned with the National Party. I doubt in the event of a hung parliament that he would give full support to an ALP government.
I think the NATS will retain on a smaller majority
It’s the same conservative independents as last time (and the time before that going back to One Nation and Joh for PM candidates for certain Clements backers) – they pretty much operate like a political party out here. This one doesn’t have the profile of Tim Horan and has apparently had a falling out with a few key independent figures in the area including Dubbo MP Dawn Fardell. He shouldn’t pull as strong a primary vote as Horan.
I think if you are looking for seats which are not marginal which could fall, I would be looking at Richmond in NSW, Moreton, Blair and even (an outside chance of) Lilley in QLD. In VIC probably McMillan more than any other whic h is not being discussed much. Actually, I think the Libs are a better chance of retaining La Trobe than McMillan.
Separately, I also hear that Labor have just about given up on Robertson and are putting all local resources into Dobell this week. Same story for Labor in Maquarie and they are putting everything into Lindsay and Greenway, which are both pretty tight.
PS: I think the Libs will hold on to Canning in WA. If there was a mood towards the ALP in WA, I would say she would win, but I think it’s a bit too hard given the history of that seat.
Yes both Windsor and Katter on Insiders right now are saying that Clements has a good chance – but then again they would say that. We shall see on Saturday, but Coulton must be the hot favourite.
Off topic, but massive lol at Rob Oakeshott not being able to join Katter and Windsor on the show this evening. He was invited, but Port Macquarie didn’t have the video facilities for him to do so! Windsor had to go to the Tamworth Racecourse and Katter to Townsville
Also, this electorate is now so big that an independent who has not been either a State MP or a (ex-agrarian socialist) Federal MP would find it very difficult to win over such a large area starting off such a small base.
My prediction: The electoral climate is ripe for independents, however I don’t see how Clements has a high enough profile to do any better than Horan and Priestley did in 2007. Nat retain.