ALP 15.9%
Incumbent MP
Sharon Grierson, since 2001.
Geography
Newcastle, NSW. The seat of Newcastle covers the main suburbs of the City of Newcastle, as well as less populated areas immediately to the north of the city. It covers a small part of Maitland council area and sparsely populated parts of Port Stephens council area. The northern boundary stops just south of Raymond Terrace. Major suburbs include Newcastle, Hamilton, Merewether, Lambton, Kotara, Adamstown, Mayfield and Waratah.
Redistribution
Newcastle remained largely intact, losing two pieces of territory: part of Maitland to the seat of Paterson and part of Newcastle to Charlton. Neither contained a significant population, and did not change the seat’s margin.
History
Newcastle is an original federation electorate, and has been held by the ALP for its entire history. Indeed, the seat has only ever been held by five people in 110 years.
The seat was first won in 1901 by David Watkins, a former coal-miner and state member for the seat of Wallsend. Watkins held Newcastle for decades until his death in 1935. He was succeeded at a 1935 by-election by his son David Oliver Watkins. Watkins junior held the seat for another twenty-three years, retiring in 1958.
After being held for 57 years by members of the Watkins family, Newcastle was won in 1958 by Charles Jones, then the Lord Mayor of Newcastle. Jones went on to serve as Gough Whitlam’s Minister for Transport from 1972 to 1975. He retired in 1983, and was succeeded by Allan Morris.
Morris held the seat for eighteen years, and was succeeded at the 2001 by former school principal Sharon Grierson, who still holds the seat.
Candidates
- Brad Luke (Liberal) – Newcastle councillor.
- Michael Osborne (Greens) – Newcastle councillor.
- Dean Winter (Democrats)
- Noel Holt (Socialist Equality Party)
- Milton Caine (Christian Democratic Party)
- Sharon Grierson (Labor) - Member for Newcastle since 2001.
- Zane Alcorn (Socialist Alliance)
Political situation
This seat has been safe for the ALP for a very long time and that isn’t going to change. This seat is a strong seat for the Greens, although they would need a substantial swing to threaten the ALP’s hold on Newcastle.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sharon Grierson | ALP | 42,936 | 50.78 | +5.21 |
| Krysia Walker | LIB | 21,611 | 25.56 | -10.71 |
| Charmian Eckersley | GRN | 8,463 | 10.01 | -1.30 |
| Aaron Buman | IND | 6,343 | 7.50 | +7.50 |
| Malcolm East | FF | 1,926 | 2.28 | +2.12 |
| Milton Caine | CDP | 1,064 | 1.26 | +1.26 |
| Aaron Johnson | DEM | 891 | 1.05 | -1.25 |
| Joel Curry | IND | 701 | 0.83 | +0.83 |
| Geoff Payne | SA | 333 | 0.39 | -0.14 |
| Noel Holt | SEP | 277 | 0.33 | +0.33 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sharon Grierson | ALP | 55,725 | 65.91 | +6.82 |
| Krysia Walker | LIB | 28,820 | 34.09 | -6.82 |
Booth breakdown
Most of Newcastle’s population lie within the boundaries of the City of Newcastle. Most booths lie in the heavily populated centre of Newcastle, with a few booths scattered across the north of the seat. Booths in Newcastle have been broken into four groups:
- Central – Newcastle, Hamilton, Tighes Hill, Cooks Hill, Merewether, Stockton.
- North – Northern parts of the seat, including parts of Maitland and Port Stephens council areas. In particular, the Thornton booth registered over 4000 votes.
- South-West – Adamstown, Kotara, Lambton, New Lambton.
- West – Birmingham Gardens, Jesmond, Mayfield, Waratah.
The ALP won a large majority in all four areas. They polled around 63% in Central and South-West areas, with 68% in the North and over 72% in the West area. The Greens performed most strongly in the centre of Newcastle, followed by the south-west.
Polling booths in Newcastle. Central in yellow, South-West in blue, West in red, North in green.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 13.29 | 63.26 | 25,170 | 29.77 |
| West | 8.92 | 72.24 | 17,798 | 21.05 |
| South-West | 10.15 | 63.84 | 16,143 | 19.09 |
| North | 3.59 | 68.20 | 10,376 | 12.27 |
| Other votes | 10.09 | 63.51 | 15,058 | 17.81 |
Polling booths in Newcastle, showing two-party preferred results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Newcastle, showing two-party preferred results of the 2007 election in the centre of Newcastle.
Polling booths in Newcastle, showing Greens primary vote results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Newcastle, showing Greens primary vote results of the 2007 election in the centre of Newcastle.
Interesting that this was the one seat where Federal Labor held on against the Lang Party. A tribute to the Watkins name appeal, although the son was apparently no great talent, and maybe the low Catholic population. ‘Protestant Labor’ was a force here.
Interesting. I would’ve thought the Greens would be doing better than 10% here. It’s only 10% in the Senate votes as well. Perhaps there’s a bit of room for improvement.
Zane Alcorn is running here for the Socialist Alliance.
In other important news from this region, Newcastle Lord Mayor John Tate has confirmed that he will stand for the stateseat of Newcastle again next year.
Cheers for that Nick. That will be a great contest I think. You would assume Gaudry would not run, and perhaps the clear air could help Tate.
That will be very interesting. It will be interesting where Gaudry’s vote go and also whether the Greens direct preferences. It seems quite likely that if the Greens directed preferences that they could decide Newcastle. (A rare case where directing preferences may make a difference, as Tate isn’t a LibNat).
I doubt the Greens would preference Tate – he’s pro-development, big developer donations, supports ripping up the rail line, etc – firmly on the opposing side on council I believe.
Newcastle councillor Brad Luke is the Liberal candidate.
Also may have missed an earlier announcement that another Newcastle councillor, Michael Osborne, is the Greens candidate.
My prediction: Negligible 2PP swing. Greens vote to increase to 15%+.