Mitchell – Election 2010

LIB 9.6%

Incumbent MP
Alex Hawke, since 2007.

Geography
North-Western Sydney. Mitchell mainly covers parts of the Hills, including Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville.

Redistribution
Mitchell moved south, gaining territory in the City of Parramatta and losing an area in the north to Berowra. This reduced the Liberal margin from 11.6% to 9.6%.

History
Mitchell was created for the 1949 election. It has almost always been won by the Liberal Party, except for two elections where the ALP won the seat, and it has become a solidly Liberal seat over recent decades.

Mitchell was won by Liberal candidate Roy Wheeler in 1949. Wheeler was re-elected at every election in the 1950s, but lost Mitchell to ALP candidate John Armitage. Armitage only managed to hold on to the seat for one term, losing it to Liberal candidate Leslie Irwin in 1963, although he later held the safe Labor seat of Chifley from 1969 to 1983.

Irwin held Mitchell from 1963 until the 1972 election, when he was swept aside with the election of the Whitlam government, with Mitchell being won by Labor candidate Alfred Ashley-Brown. Ashley-Brown lost in 1974 to Liberal candidate Alan Cadman.

Cadman held Mitchell for over thirty years without rising to much prominence in the Liberal Party, and by the mid-2000s was one of only three MPs remaining from the time of the Whitlam government, along with Prime Minister John Howard and Attorney-General Philip Ruddock. Cadman served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final years of the Fraser government and the early years of the Howard government, but didn’t rise any further.

After narrowly surviving a preselection challenge in 2004, Cadman faced a challenge in 2007 from prominent right-winger Alex Hawke, and decided to retire. Hawke easily won election in 2007.

Candidates

Political situation
This seat is a very safe Liberal seat, and Hawke should easily win re-election in 2010.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Hawke LIB 46,115 56.74 -7.64
Nigel Gould ALP 25,211 31.02 +10.02
Toni Wright-Turner GRN 4,302 5.29 -0.64
Darryl Allen CDP 2,099 2.58 +0.07
James Fiander CCC 1,715 2.11 +2.11
Jarrod Graetz FF 1,022 1.26 -0.11
Jordie Bodlay IND 815 1.00 +0.45

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Hawke LIB 50,058 61.59 -9.09
Nigel Gould ALP 31,221 38.41 +9.09

These results do not take into consideration the effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mitchell have been divided into three areas for the south, centre and north of the seat, with each area respectively centred on Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill and Kellyville. The Liberal Party won majorities in all three areas, winning over 60% in the centre and north, but winning less than 55% in the southern end of the seat.

Polling booths in Mitchell. South in blue, Central in green, North in yellow.
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
South 5.59 54.69 28,315 41.07
Central 5.34 60.70 20,724 30.06
North 4.42 63.78 19,911 28.88
Other votes 5.76 62.42 15,635
Results of the 2007 federal election in Mitchell.

10 COMMENTS

  1. It got withdrawn because David Clarke MLC sued Melbourne Uni Press for defamation, but if anyone can get their hands on it, ‘Education of a Young Liberal’ is a good read. Hawke features prominently.

  2. You mean John Hyde Page’s book? Yes, it’s a great book…sort of like the Liberal equivalent of the Latham Diaries.

    It doesn’t really say anything too dramatic about Hawke, from what I remember. He’s portrayed as a ruthless hack of the Right who’s determined to crush his factional opponents by any means necessary….but, really, so what? Page wasn’t much better, and like Latham he only “discovered” how terrible the system was once it started working against him.

  3. That’s the one. You’re right, Hyde-Page was no better, but it was an interesting insight into life as a party hack. It also documents the NSW Libs descent toward the Right faction (after the ‘moderate’ faction controlled the NSW Libs for so long).

    Hawke wasn’t portrayed as anything too bad, just a party hack and a bully. Hawke is also apparently the subject of regular rants by Alan Jones, who I think I remember called him a ‘cancer on the Liberal Party.’ (Jones is a fan of David Clark, who I understand is no longer a friend of Hawke).

    There’s no game like politics.

  4. Having defeated the moderates (‘the Group’) the NSW Liberal right then divided between pragmatists and radicals with Hawke in the former and Clarke in the later.Ian Hancock’s official history of the Liberal organisation is interesting on the rise of the right. Cadman was very conservative. The story of Mitchell is that the hills of Kenthurst went from being the remote bush to being fashionable. This is Liberal true-believer country the Libs even do well on the Council.

  5. I think that book is more memorable for it’s almost accurate prediction on Malcolm Turnbull’s career – that he’d quit in 2010 if his ambitions of rapidly rising to PM were thwarted.

  6. Yes, but Jason Falinksi has re-positioned himself on the Warringah Council. Must have changed his mind that Abbott would burn out first (and he may be right).

  7. Interesting stories about the ALP candidate here putting up posters which simply say ‘Nigel Who?’. An intriguing approach – something that will get people talking, asking WTF those signs are about?

    Greens candidate is Colin Dawson.

  8. The ballot order will be

    1. Brendon Prentice (Christian Democrats)
    2. Nigel Gould (ALP)
    3. Alex Hawke (Liberal)
    4. Colin Dawson (Greens)

Comments are closed.