Isaacs – Election 2010

ALP 7.7%

Incumbent MP
Mark Dreyfus, since 2007.

Geography
Outer south-eastern Melbourne. Isaacs covers suburbs along the coast of Port Phillip Bay on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne. It covers the southern parts of Kingston and Greater Dandenong council areas, and a small northern part of Frankston council area.

History
Isaacs was created at a redistribution before the 1969 federal election. The seat was long a marginal seat, but has become safer for the ALP over the last decade.

The seat was first won in 1969 by the Liberal Party’s David Hamer. Hamer held the seat until 1974, when he lost to the ALP’s Gareth Clayton, but Hamer won back the seat in 1975.

Hamer retired in 1977, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate William Burns. Burns failed to win re-election in 1980, when Isaacs was won by the ALP’s David Charles.

Charles held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1990. The Liberal Party’s Rod Atkinson won back the seat in 1990.

Atkinson was re-elected in 1993, but a redistribution before the 1996 election changed Isaacs’ margin from a 3% Liberal margin to a 3.9% Labor margin, and Atkinson lost to the ALP’s Greg Wilton.

Wilton was re-elected in 1998. His marriage broke down in 2000, and he faced strong media attack in 2000 after being found by police in a situation that some interpreted as an attempted murder-suicide. This ended with Wilton committing suicide in June 2000. He remains the only member of federal Parliament to ever die by suicide.

The ALP’s Ann Corcoran easily won re-election at the ensuing by-election, with the Liberal Party not standing a candidate. Corcoran’s margin was cut to around 1-2% at the 2001 and 2004 elections, and retired in 2007.

The seat was won in 2007 by the ALP’s candidate, prominent lawyer Mark Dreyfus, with a swing of over 6%, which gave him a 7.7% margin.

Candidates

Political situation
Dreyfus holds the seat by a formidable margin. Having said that, the seat was very marginal after the 2001 and 2004 elections, and it is not inconceivable that a national swing back to the Liberal Party could see the seat change hands.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark Dreyfus ALP 44,056 48.76 +4.45
Ross Fox LIB 34,762 38.47 -4.82
Colin Long GRN 5,636 6.24 -1.07
Jadah Pleiter FF 2,308 2.55 +0.15
Laura Chipp DEM 1,970 2.18 +1.15
Gordon W Ford IND 1,137 1.26 +0.49
Robert Norrie LDP 492 0.54 +0.54

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark Dreyfus ALP 52,131 57.69 +6.21
Ross Fox LIB 38,230 42.31 -6.21

Booth breakdown
Isaacs covers parts of three local government areas: Kingston, Frankston and Greater Dandenong. Over half the population live in Kingston LGA, so it has been divided between Aspendale-Chelsea and Mentone-Mordialloc, with the other two LGAs left intact. It’s worth noting that the suburb of Frankston is not in the seat of Isaacs, or even that close to the boundary, so all references are to the council area, which mainly consists of Carrum Downs.

The ALP won majorities in all areas, but they varied markedly. The ALP only won slim majorities of around 52% in the Kingston parts of the seat, 58% in the Frankston area and over 70% in the inland area in Greater Dandenong council. The Greens also performed much more strongly along the coast.

Polling booths in Isaacs. Frankston in red, Greater Dandenong in green, Aspendale-Chelsea in yellow, Mentone-Mordialloc in blue.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Aspendale-Chelsea 6.84 52.66 24,555 27.17
Greater Dandenong 3.69 70.94 18,929 20.95
Mentone-Mordialloc 8.85 51.67 17,582 19.46
Frankston 3.63 58.19 10,843 12.00
Other votes 7.09 56.24 18,452 20.42

Results of the 2007 federal election in Isaacs.