Holt – Election 2010

ALP 11.6%

Incumbent MP
Anthony Byrne, since 1999.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Holt covers the northwestern parts of Casey council area, on the edge of Melbourne. Suburbs include Cranbourne, Lynbrook, Narre Warren South, Hampton Park, Hallam, Eumemmerring,, Doveton and Endeavour Hills.

History
Holt was created at the 1969 election. It has mostly been held by the ALP, usually as a safe seat, except for a couple of elections.

Holt was first won in 1969 by former Liberal state MP Len Reid. Reid lost in 1972 to the ALP’s Max Oldmeadows.

Oldmeadows held the seat for two terms, losing in 1975 to Liberal candidate William Yates.

Yates held the seat until 1980, when he lost to the ALP’s Michael Duffy. The ALP has held Holt ever since.

Duffy served as a minister in the Labor federal government from 1983 to 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.

Holt was won in 1996 by senior Labor figure Gareth Evans. Evans had been a Senator since 1977, and had served as a cabinet minister for the entire length of the Hawke/Keating government. He moved to Holt in 1996, and was elected Deputy Leader of the Labor Party after the defeat of the Keating government.

Evans retired in 1999, and the ensuing by-election was easily won by the ALP’s Anthony Byrne, with no Liberal opposition. Byrne has served as a Parliamentary Secretary since the election of the Rudd government in 2007.

Candidates

Political situation
This seat is reasonably safe for the ALP, although it was held by a very slim margin after the 2004 election.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Byrne ALP 51,689 55.65 +9.98
Emanule Cicchiello LIB 31,785 34.22 -8.63
Yasmin de Zilwa FF 4,076 4.39 +0.22
Lynette Keleher GRN 3,823 4.12 -0.34
Ken Seymour DEM 1,155 1.24 -0.18
Chris Morgan CEC 347 0.37 -1.06

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Byrne ALP 57,237 61.63 +10.12
Emanuele Cicchiello LIB 35,638 38.37 -10.12

Booth breakdown
Booths in Holt have been divided into four areas: the northern areas, and then Narre Warren South in the east of the seat, Cranbourne in the south and Hampton Park in the centre of the seat.

The ALP won a majority in all areas. They won just short of 70% in Hampton Park, and only won 57% in Narre Warren South.

 

Polling booths in Holt. North in yellow, Hampton Park in green, Cranbourne in red, Narre Warren South in blue.

 

Voter group FF % GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
North 4.22 3.90 63.90 29,092 31.32
Narre Warren South 4.41 3.55 57.27 15,870 17.09
Cranbourne 5.01 4.24 60.63 15,739 16.95
Hampton Park 4.46 4.13 69.93 12,387 13.34
Other votes 4.08 4.79 57.39 19,787 21.30
Results of the 2007 federal election in Holt.

2 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Looks to be a big margin for Labor already, so probably negligible swing to them this year.

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