Griffith – Election 2010

ALP 12.3%

Incumbent MP
Kevin Rudd, since 1998.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Griffith covers the suburbs of Brisbane on the south side of the Brisbane river across the river from the Brisbane CBD, including South Brisbane itself, as well as Greenslopes, Holland Park, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, Coorparoo, Carina, Seven Hills, Morningside, Balmoral and Bulimba.

Redistribution
No changes.

History
 Griffith was created for the 1934 election, replacing the original seat of Oxley which was abolished at that election. Both Oxley and Griffith have been marginal seats, with Griffith swinging back and forth regularly between the Liberal Party and the ALP since 1949, although this has not usually coincided with national changes. The seat has become relatively safe for the ALP since it was won by Kevin Rudd in 1998.

The seat was first won in 1934 by Labor MP Francis Baker, who had previously won the seat of Oxley off the United Australia Party, ironically at an election when the UAP swept away the federal Labor government.

Baker was re-elected in 1937, but was killed in a car accident in 1939 at the age of 36. Ironically his father was elected to federal parliament in Maranoa in 1940, after his son’s term in Parliament.

The 1939 Griffith by-election was won by Labor candidate William Conelan. Conelan held the seat until he lost Griffith to Liberal candidate Douglas Berry in 1949.

Berry was re-elected in 1951 but lost to the ALP’s Wilfred Coutts. Coutts held on in 1955 but failed to win re-election in 1958, losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Chresby, and winning it back in 1961.

Coutts lost the seat once again in 1966, when the seat was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron held the seat for eleven years, moving to the new seat of Fadden in 1977. He held Fadden until his defeat in 1983, and returned to Parliament at the 1983 Moreton by-election, which he held until his retirement in 1990.

The ALP regained Griffith in 1977, with Ben Humphreys winning the seat. Humphreys served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1987 until 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.

The ALP preselected Kevin Rudd, but he lost to Graeme McDougall (LIB). McDougall only held on for one term, losing to Rudd in 1998. Rudd joined the ALP shadow ministry in 2001 as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, a role he held for five years.

Rudd’s profile rose as Shadow Foreign Minister, and he was considered a contender for the ALP leadership when Simon Crean resigned in 2003 and when Mark Latham resigned in 2005, but he waited until late 2006 when he challenged Kim Beazley, and was elected leader, and then proceeded to win the 2007 federal election, becoming Prime Minister.

Candidates

  • Gregory Romans (Liberal Democrats)
  • Hamish Chitts (Independent)
  • Jesse Webb (Family First)
  • Rebecca Docherty (Liberal National)
  • Emma-Kate Rose (Greens)
  • Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Kevin Rudd (Labor) – Member for Griffith since 1998. Prime Minister 2007-2010.

Political situation
Despite recent events, it would be extraordinary if Kevin Rudd lost Griffith, even in the case of a Liberal win nationally. The Liberal National Party originally preselected John Humphreys, an analyst at the Centre for Independent Studies, but Humphreys was removed by the LNP shortly before the election was called, as they considered the prospect of regaining Griffith if Rudd were to retire. Rudd didn’t retire, and the LNP has preselected a candidate with an even lower profile.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kevin Rudd ALP 43,957 53.09 +4.31
Craig Thomas LIB 28,133 33.98 -3.49
Willy Bach GRN 6,496 7.85 -0.97
P M Howard IND 2,264 2.73 +2.73
Rob Cotterill DEM 819 0.99 -0.33
Andrew Hassall FF 654 0.79 -1.17
Jim McIlroy SA 293 0.35 -0.35
Samantha Myers LDP 182 0.22 +0.22

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kevin Rudd ALP 51,600 62.32 +3.84
Craig Thomas LIB 31,198 37.68 -3.84

Booth breakdown
Booths in Griffith have been divided into four areas: South Brisbane, Greenslopes, Bulimba and East, which makes up those booths along the eastern boundary of the seat. The ALP won majorities of 61-4% across the seat, while the Greens polled much higher, with almost 14%, in South Brisbane, while they polled less than 5% in the east of the seat.

Polling booths in Griffith. East in yellow, Greenslopes in blue, South Brisbane in green, Bulimba in red.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Greenslopes 7.08 62.43 21,561 26.04
Bulimba 6.00 61.58 21,330 25.76
South Brisbane 13.93 64.28 13,203 15.95
East 4.84 62.32 9,133 11.03
Other votes 8.02 61.62 17,571 21.22

Results of the 2007 federal election in Griffith