ALP 4.5%
Incumbent MP
Kerry Rea, since 2007.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.
Redistribution
No changes were made to Bonner in the recent redistribution.
History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.
At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.
A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007.
Candidates
- Utz Wellner (Democratic Labor Party)
- Darryl Rosin (Greens)
- Ross Vasta (Liberal National) – Member for Bonner 2004-2007
- Kerry Rea (Labor) – Member for Bonner since 2007
- Greg Sowden (Independent)
- Carolyn Ferrando (Family First)
Political situation
While Bonner has a short history, the area was previously covered by Bowman, and Bowman had been held by the ALP for most of the last 25 years. While this appears to put the ALP in a strong position, the Liberal strength in the area has grown as the population mix has changed, and this seat will be an interesting race in 2010.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kerry Rea | ALP | 40,784 | 48.80 | +6.05 |
| Ross Vasta | LIB | 35,031 | 41.91 | -2.22 |
| David Wyatt | GRN | 4,094 | 4.90 | -0.03 |
| Stephen Gellatly | FF | 1,612 | 1.93 | -2.43 |
| Shane Boese | FP | 1,010 | 1.21 | +1.21 |
| Vicki Stocks | DEM | 837 | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| Lisa Charles | LDP | 212 | 0.25 | +0.25 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kerry Rea | ALP | 45,576 | 54.53 | +5.04 |
| Ross Vasta | LIB | 38,004 | 45.47 | -5.04 |
Booth breakdown
As Bonner lies entirely within the City of Brisbane, I have divided Bonner into three parts, based on the two main suburbs and grouping those booths in the middle into a third area. Booths in the north near Moreton Bay are included in Wynnum-Manly (the name of the City of Brisbane Ward. While those in the south are grouped together as Mount Gravatt. The remaining booths have been grouped together as “Central”.
The Liberal Party only won eight booths in Bonner in 2007, and with the exception of two booths in the middle of the seat (Belmont School and Gumdale) none of these booths had over 600 voters. The ALP won a majority in all three areas but won a much larger majority in Wynnum-Manly.
Polling booths in Bonner. Mount Gravatt in blue, Central in yellow, Wynnum-Manly in green
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mount Gravatt | 4.89 | 52.64 | 24,709 | 29.56 |
| Wynnum-Manly | 5.74 | 60.65 | 22,478 | 26.89 |
| Central | 3.77 | 51.78 | 20,038 | 23.97 |
| Other votes | 5.18 | 52.34 | 16,355 | 19.57 |
Polling booths in Bonner, showing results of the 2007 election.
This one is my home seat.
The ALP’s ( Kerry Rea) currently holds this seat and has positioned her office in Wynnum. (Same location that Ross Vasta chose.) Probably because that area with its changing demographics is considered important.
Kerry previously was a councillor in the Mt Gravatt district and profited by the (so called printing scandal that failed to eventuate) prior to the 2007 election.
The 5% margin is very deceiving as the area around Wakerley and Gumdale continues to develop with larger 5 & 6 Bedroom homes being built at a rapid rate. The inclusion of a Barons mansion (complete with gargoyles) is a sight to see.
With once modest acreage properties now being torn down and replaced with houses that would match Kirribilli house.
Two things stick in my mind about this seat. The defeat of Kevin Rudd when the Tingalpa area was in Griffith, and the absolute frustration of Con Sciacia when he had to decide (as a sitting member) which seat he challenged.
Wynnum was always a safe labor area but with southerners coming to Brisbane and overpaying for what they thought were bargains (and maybe they were right) the area is quickly reverting to a liberal area. Small areas of housing commission have only delayed the inevitable. 20 minutes from the city and 5 minutes to the bay will see lifestyle and money convert these areas. With the bible belt of Mt Gravatt at the southern end & Wynnum on the northern end it is only a matter of time before this seat becomes a blue ribbon liberal seat.
Ross Vasta may not be the one to turn it permanently but he is a good worker and with a running mate either from the DLP/FF or CDP he should be able to regain this seat permanently for the coalition.
Kerry Rea is a member of Emily’s list and Ross knows that this fact is a red flag to any Christian.
If Ross fails, then this is probably the last time he’ll gain pre-selection at this level.
No doubt the ALP would be aware of this and may attempt to change candidates but that in itself would create a backlash.
Ben this is a far more interesting seat then you have portrayed.
Actually the Liberals won 8 booths in Bonner in 2007. You forgot to count the tiny booth at Tangalooma on Moreton Island.
Darryl Rosin has apparently been endorced as the Greens candidate for Bonner. He ran for the state seat of Greenslopes in 2009 and picked up 12.57% of the vote.
Bye Bye Kerry. Sincerely, the Unborn Child who can move a 1-3 % swing anytime. Cara
??
And Tony, I think you mean that Emily’s list is a red flag to any right-winger, not to any Christian. You may be surprised to know that the two are not mutually inclusive.
Cara Says: Bye Bye Kerry. Sincerely, the Unborn Child who can move a 1-3 % swing anytime. Cara
Thanks Cara we are currently interviewing candidates for that seat and although we hadn’t intended to stand a candidate there, the over whelming requests from Christian groups has convinced us to nominate.
Hamish Says: And Tony, I think you mean that Emily’s list is a red flag to any right-winger, not to any Christian. You may be surprised to know that the two are not mutually inclusive
Right winger ?
We’re not the ones selling Qrail, or proposing another pacific island solution.
At least pretend you know what your talking about.
.
T
Tony, you’re the one suggesting that Christians should be startled by a member of Emily’s list. That’s offensive and ridiculous.
The abortion debate has been run and won and is now only clung onto by a minority of right-wingers who wouldn’t consider voting Labor, let alone the Greens.
If Rea loses it will be because of the mining tax, distaste toward the State Government and a natural correction to the Labor swings in QLD in 2007, not abortions and certainly not Emily’s list.
Hamish, you need to get around a bit more. Dismembering unborn children, was a fad that is on the way out….the abortionists are struggling to find new recruits, so they now resort to chemicals, to flush the little guy out.
Meanwhile, post-abortion trauma is filling up the counselling and grief clinics. Staff at abortion clinics are have nervous breakdowns, because the ultrasound actually shows the baby trying to move away from the instruments, and open its mouth in pain.
Did you study Algester and Aspley swings? clearly not enough.
oh…forget right-wing. the far Left and far Right are both happy to justify killing inncocents.
It is the middle normal people that believe that is a bad thing to do.
Just interested in why we have not seen Ross Vasta doing the rounds? Would you not think that with a potential swing to the LNP there would be some interest in Wynnum area? Seems to me that complacency is the order of the day here.
Am I expecting a bit too much but is a leaflet in the letterbox a few weeks before an election all I can expect from Kerry Rea, the rest of the the time she’s invisible.
Matt
Kerry has two offices, I pass her Mt Gravatt one every day. She’s a seat warmer and union supported but I’d take her any day over a Howard hack and a greenie who moves from seat to seat and level to level.
That’s really funny Ken, considering that Kerry Rea used to be our local Alderman, before shifting levels!
You might be right about the seat warmer though.
On the other hand, why would anyone want the return of the useless Mr Vasta, whose recently delivered pamphlet primarily mentioned non federal issues?
Ziggy – some good analysis – thanks.
Bonner is the dark horse of the Queensland campaign. I’m tipping this one to fall to the Liberals on the night to much fanfare.
Since 2007 the demographics around my area have changed significantly. Expensive housing estates like Wakefield are everywhere now along Tilley, Manly & New Cleveland Road. Vasta is a popular candidate and everyone around here knows who he is. The Labor MP is lazy and has done herself no favours over the last 3 years by being virtually invisible.
I barely see any Labor signage across the electorate and the Liberals are out every weekend at the Creek and Old Cleveland intersection outside the Carindale shops, where much of the electorate passes through on a daily basis. Vasta waves enthusiastically at the procession of SUVs that toot their horns as they pass by.
The seat is, like Bowman, in the process of becoming a safe Liberal seat on the outer fringe of Brisbane- the Ryan of the East. This is evidenced in the small swing Labor received in Bonner in 2007, far below the state average.
The Kevin Rudd factor is also at play in this seat, a fair portion of which used to be inside Griffith. Voters here and no friend of Julia Gillard.
The swing is on, if Vasta can finish strong this seat will return to the fold.
Yes Bonner does look like going to the LNP.
Certainly it is one of the seats the DLP will be passsing preferences to the LNP.
Late campaigns agains Kerry Rea will also help put this seat out of her grasp.
I have seen Kerry out though but her campaign would’nt be much larger than any of the minors contesting.
Vasta is $2.40, so is still very much the outsider…
Great,
I might get on that bet
I wonder if the Greens are going to be preferencing the ALP in this seat and if Family First are preferencing the LNP.
I expect a whole swag of Family First voters that got Ross over the line in 2004 that went to the ALP in the last election because of WorkChoices will vote for Vasta this time. This is particularly important in those Wishart/Mansfield areas.
True but dont forget the DLP as well.
That will draw many of the traditional church vote as well as the ones who are protesting Kevin Rudds dumping.
Of course not. I think it’s pleasing the DLP is preferencing the LNP. Vasta’s voting record is much better than Rea’s.
Leeani Brendan
Posted August 4, 2010 at 6:16 PM
Of course not. I think it’s pleasing the DLP is preferencing the LNP. Vasta’s voting record is much better than Rea’s.
Neither of the major candidates impress us in either Bonner or Bowman,
I think the real factor is that the ALP stood 2 x Emilys List Candidates thereby disqualifying themselves from the field.
I think that’s what Leeandi was getting at.
Can anyone tell me who the independent candidate Greg Sowden is and what he stands for? I tried emailing but have no reply. As to the other candidates I am entirely disillusioned. Vasta’s right wing Christian stance gives me the creeps but I also feel the Labor party will eventually undermine the country economically. I also don’t like how the “boat people” issue has become a major one at this election. I am in a quandary. As to the Greens – after Traveston Dam, they are not to be trusted. While I agree with some of their environmental issues, if you look through their economic policies they are unworkable and would drag Australia down.
Oh yes, I forgot to mention that Kerry Rea’s past association with Paul Lucas makes me feel nauseous. I actually called to quiz her about this before the last election and she really tried to distance herself from Lucas. In any biographical details she only vaguely outlines that she worked for a “State Minister” but neglects to mention any name. However she seems to have no problem appearing regularly alongside that Lucas. Pathetic really.
Suzanne
Well there’s always the DLP
no way! I’d rather donkey vote
Peter – Vasta is $2.40, so is still very much the outsider…
I’d say there might be a few bets from some internal Labor Party people on the Lib candidate then in Bonner. This seems closer than some others in Brisbane but the ALP privately don’t think they will hold it. There are much bigger swings in other seats in Brisbane that this seat but still my info is that we are looking at about a 6% swing to the LP.
Suzanne – I don’t think it’s really that fair to say that Vasta has a crazy right wing stance. Sure, I think he is a Christian but I don’t think he’s some kind of right wing zealot. I’ve read commentary on him and it surely doesn’t reflect he was some crazy Christian in parliament.
I’m hearing Labor insiders are gravely concerned about Bonner. There’s a feeling amongst local members that Rea isn’t doing the work and spends most of days in her office. Vasta is no political heavyweight but he’s on track to pull a surprise upset.
DB, at $2.40 Vasta is looking like a good punt from where I’m sitting.
Will the DLP even have people on polling booths Tony?
Digger Says: Will the DLP even have people on polling booths Tony?
Yes although Bowman and Bonner will stretch the numbers. Why are you volunteering
Greg Sowden is a mystery, got a flyer in the mail recently, says he is running for Federal parliament, no mention if he’s an independent, or in a party, no phone number, no website, no mention that he’s running for Bonner, which I found here.
Rang the printers # on the leaflet, they gave me a # which rang out .
Also noticed on Kerry Reas flyer ” GP super clinic delivered for Wynnum/Manly,” so I rang her office, asked when can I use the clinic, bloke said ‘ oh, it isn’t built yet, you’ll have to wait for Labor to get back in ‘.
Good to see nothing’s too good for the electorate, and nothing’s what they’ll get.
I’d be surprised if Labor hold on to this from all reports I’m getting. They seem to be a better chance of retaining Petrie. If what Matt is saying is true the electorate would see right through it and are certainly not afraid to vote co-alition.
I actually handed out 500 flyers last night and enjoyed the interaction.
As a Senate candidate I sometimes miss talking to the locals
DB Says: I’d be surprised if Labor hold on to this from all reports I’m getting. They seem to be a better chance of retaining Petrie. If what Matt is saying is true the electorate would see right through it and are certainly not afraid to vote co-alition.
Your probably right DB… Standy for a late campaign against Kerry that should dislodge her from the seat. (coming from the South/Carindale area)
The Wynnum area is her best bet and if she maintain the vote there she might hold on, otherwise she’s gone
I think Bonner is an accurate reflection of the whole country. What a mess.
Vasta was useless, Reas is useless, Sowden is kidding himself if he thinks he can run whilst remaining an invisible enigma, The Greens, DLP & Family First are a mixed bag with some policies I like and some I really don’t.
With regret I’ll join the 4 – 5% who vote Green in this electorate (even though they support abortion) but what order to put the others in? The only thing I’m determined to contribute too is making sure that idiot Abbott doesn’t become PM. He just sets off my alarm bells.
Whatever happens, I’m screwed. There isn’t one party out there that reflects my views.
Good grief, Bonner, like most seats has become a real life key stone cops outfit on all sides. What a disgrace to the name of a once well liked Australian Senator.
but on this occasion I think it will be safer with the devil we know.
DB
Petrie will be interesting Yvette D’ath not a very vocal member I think it will be closer than people think. Bonner does look promising from local on the ground reports. Greg has also said a mouth full as well disillusionment of the major parties is definitely going to be a factor this election.
Wynnum Herald is smashing the snot out of Kerry Rea, expect a big swing against her in Labor heartland in the north on the 21st. The KO will come from Belmont & Gumdale booths, though.
Vasta ahead 51.4-48.6 in Labor internal polling. Looks like it will come down to Greens/Other preferences.
My prediction: Labor retain, just, 3-4% swing to LNP.
Rea is virtually unknown down here in Wynnum. Vasta isn’t well liked, but everyone knows who he is. :S
My goodness, what is happening to my beloved Wynnum Manly? I may as well be living in the bible belt. Where did all these right wing christian rednecks come from… Please, this so depressing… It’s 2010!
Mmmm, brings back memories…”Jo for PM”? … Anyone?
Looking at the candidates, I wish I had remembered to change my electorate when I moved. Look to be duds all round. There goes my idealist hope of being able to vote whole heartedly for the best person for the job in the electorate instead of voting against the prime minister and party I don’t want in. Better give it a red hot crack rossy boy!