Doboy – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – LNP 1.8%
Mayoral margin – LNP 10.6%

Incumbent councillor
Ryan Murphy, since 2012.

Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Doboy covers suburbs to the east of the Brisbane CBD, including Murarrie, Tingalpa and Carina.

Map of Doboy's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Doboy’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Most changes to Doboy were relatively minor, swapping border territory with Morningside and Wynnum Manly. The main change was at the eastern edge of the ward, in the area around Ransome on the city boundary. This area was transferred into Chandler. These changes cut the LNP council margin from 4.6% to 1.8%, and the mayoral margin from 13.2% to 10.6%.

History
Labor’s John Campbell held Doboy for approximately thirty years from the early 1980s until 2012. Campbell served as opposition leader from 1990 to 1991 and as deputy mayor from 1991 to 1997.

Doboy had become quite marginal in the 2000s, with Campbell’s margin cut to 5% in 2004 and 1% in 2008.

In 2012, a 5.5% swing to the Liberal National Party saw Campbell lose to LNP candidate Ryan Murphy.

Candidates

Assessment
Doboy is the LNP’s most marginal seat, and if there is any shift back to Labor they would be hoping to win Doboy.

2012 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Ryan Murphy Liberal National 11,946 54.6 +8.7 51.8
John Campbell Labor 9,953 45.5 -1.5 48.2
Informal 581 2.6

2012 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,785 58.3 +1.3 55.5
Ray Smith Labor 7,112 32.4 -2.3 34.6
Andrew Bartlett Greens 1,536 7.0 +1.4 7.4
Rory Killen Independent 315 1.4 +1.4 1.5
Chris Carson Independent 202 0.9 +0.9 1.0
Informal 519 2.3

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 13,00763.2+1.860.6
Ray Smith Labor 7,56736.8-1.839.4
Exhausted1,376
Polling places in Doboy at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green.
Polling places in Doboy at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Doboy have been split into three parts: central, east and west. Tingalpa and Murarrie are in the centre, Bayside, Hemmant and Wondall Heights are in the east and Carina and Cannon Hill are in the west.

The LNP vote is highest at the eastern edge of the ward, and lowest in the centre. The ALP managed a slim 51.5% majority of the council vote in the three booths in the centre of the ward. A similar pattern is seen in the mayoral vote, with the LNP polling 8-10% higher in each area than in the council vote.

Voter groupLNP council 2PPLNP mayoral 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Central48.556.95,23930.8
West50.860.24,62627.2
East54.762.42,71816.0
Other votes55.164.14,40925.9
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Doboy at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Doboy at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor in Doboy at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor in Doboy at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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