Melbourne Ports – Australia 2013

ALP 7.9%

Incumbent MP
Michael Danby, since 1998.

Map of Melbourne Ports’ 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Melbourne Ports’ 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Inner south of Melbourne. Melbourne Ports covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park and South Melbourne.

Redistribution
Melbourne Ports’ boundaries were slightly changed, losing territory south of Glen Huntly Road to Goldstein. This increased the Labor margin from 7.6% to 7.9%.

History
Melbourne Ports is an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins.

Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.

Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.

Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.

Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.

Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.

Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby has won re-election at every subsequent election, although never with huge margins, and a margin as small as 3% in 2004.

Candidates

  • Melissa Star (Sex Party)
  • Michael Danby (Labor)
  • Robert Keenan (Family First)
  • Toby Simon Stodart (Palmer United Party)
  • Vince Stefano (Democratic Labour Party)
  • Ann Birrell (Greens)
  • Kevin Ekendahl (Liberal)
  • Margaret Quinn (Rise Up Australia)
  • Steven Armstrong (Stable Population Party)

Assessment
Melbourne Ports is probably safe enough for the Labor Party with a margin of almost 8%, but in current circumstances Danby could be vulnerable to a Liberal surge.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael DanbyALP32,39138.19-4.28
Kevin EkendahlLIB32,05737.79-1.89
Sue PlowrightGRN17,52820.66+5.63
Christian VegaSXP1,8512.18+2.18
Daniel EmmersonFF6320.75-0.10
Gregory StorerSEC3620.43+0.43

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael DanbyALP48,81957.56+0.41
Kevin EkendahlLIB36,00242.44-0.41
Polling places in Melbourne Ports at the 2010 federal election. Caulfield in orange, Port Melbourne in blue, St Kilda in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Melbourne Ports at the 2010 federal election. Caulfield in orange, Port Melbourne in blue, St Kilda in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.

The ALP won a massive 68.4% majority in St Kilda and smaller majorities in the other two areas. The Greens polled almost 30% of the vote in St Kilda, 18% in Port Melbourne and just under 16% in Caulfield.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
Port Melbourne18.2755.7420,78042.00
St Kilda29.9568.4417,77935.94
Caulfield15.9753.6010,91422.06
Other votes19.5254.8529,966
Two-party-preferred votes in Melbourne Ports at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Melbourne Ports at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Melbourne Ports at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Melbourne Ports at the 2010 federal election.

Melissa Star (Sex Party)Michael Danby (Labor)Robert Keenan (Family First)Toby Simon Stodart (Palmer United Party)Vince Stefano (Democratic Labour Party)Ann Birrell (Greens)Kevin Ekendahl (Liberal)Margaret Quinn (Rise Up Australia)Steven Armstrong (Stable Population Party)

 

64 COMMENTS

  1. A Danby leaflet appeared in my letterbox today saying the Michael Danby would vote of marriage equality if he is re-elected. In 2012 Danby had an opportunity to vote for gay marriage abut he abstained. This leaflet show both desperation on his part but it is also his promise is hollow as if he is elected (50/50 chance) as he will most likely be in opposition anyway. We dont have to watch TV show “The Hollow Men” when we have Danby as our mostly fence sitting MHR.

  2. Looking at Danby’s How-to-Vote leaflet, he’s preferenced Melissa Star (Sex Party) last. The Greens have her at 3 and the Liberals 4 respectively. Curious. I would have thought that tribal animosities would see him give that place to the DLP. Still, as promised, he’s put Ann Birrell (Greens) below the Liberal Candidate.

  3. The 3 “religious” parties (DLP, Family First, Rise Up Australia) standing in Melbourne Ports have candidates who live no were near Melbourne Ports like in Berwick for example. Melbourne Ports is not into religion much (at least on the coastal section – Port Melbourne, Sth Melbourne, Albert Park, Middle Park, West St Kilda, St Kilda and Elwood). In fact the largest “religious” group in West St Kilda, Middle Park and Albert Park are the NO religion group (ABS: Censis 2012). Most of the churches have been demolished or converted to apartments however despite this Middle Park was the most charitable suburb in Australia in 2012 which only goes to prove that you dont need God to be good.

  4. Today fatty Michael Danby (Port Phillip Leader newspaper online) claims that a local community, Unchain Inc, is plotting to “install” the Liberal candidate. Funny stuff

  5. Any chance of an upset here? Albert Park was big surprise at state election. Melbourne Ports type of seat where many Lib sympathisers in 2010 would have had doubts about Abbott.

  6. Yes I agree. Melbourne Ports covers state seats of Prahran, Brighton, Caulfield (all currently Liberal) and Albert Park (currently Labour). In the last state election the Albert Park ALP candidate only got 30% of the primary vote while the Liberal got 39%. The ALP candidate won with Greens preferences though. So on paper Melbourne Ports should be Liberal but it isn’t. I think that the ALP margin will drop from about 8% to about 4%. 15 years of Danby is enough in my view and I put him last when I voted on 20 Aug 13 but unfortunately he may scrape in.

    Local community group Unchain Inc is preferencing the Greens 1st, Liberal 2nd and ALP 3rd and Danby is not happy. See Port Phillip Leader newspaper online for story.

  7. Geoff,

    This would basically be a Liberal seat IMO if not for Danby. The different between state and federal numbers in Caulfield is 10-20%.

  8. The bagel eaters only make up 10% of Melbourne Ports but in the Caulfield state seat its about 30% and they all, like the gentiles, mostly vote Labour, Liberal or Greens.

  9. Given that the ALP Government of Julia Gillard abstained on several recent votes on Israel at the UN (instead of the previously bi-partisan votes in support of Israel), Danby’s Jewish supporters may not be as solid behind him as in the past. Whether all these factors will be enough to oust him, well today will tell.

  10. Weak and watery at best. The economy and marriage equality are what matters to me – Danby has failed to deliver on either and now he preferences the DLP? Go figure …

  11. Michael “Mr 30%” Danby only got 31% of the promary while the Liberal got 39%. It looks like Danby will win again with Greens preferences – ohh dear.

    At the Albert Park Primary School booth there were a few unhappy ALP voters who ripped up ther ALP HTV.One older man came to complain that he never saw Danby in the last 3 years but recently Danby had appealed to the old pensioner nearby for money and saying could they leaflet 50 homes. This old man was a traditional old ALP working class bloke.

  12. A 3.8% swing against Danby to the Ekendahl with more postal votes still to count which should favour the Liberal. Melbourne Ports is now marginal. Danby was the shortest lived Parliamentary Secretary of the Art (March – September 2013) but he did nothing as usual, particularly about the child porn art exhibition at the Linden Gallery, St Kilda, in May/Jun 2013 which is within Danby’s electorate. Victoria Police charged Footscray artist Paul Yores last week with child pornography offences.

  13. The swing against Danby (ALP) is now 4.4% with more postal to count which should favour Ekendahl (Lib). THis will not be enough for the Liberal to win but will shock Labour as the demography of the electorate changes and dissatisfaction with the fence sitting Danby exposes him.

  14. Today is VJ (Victory over Japan) Day but not a mention in the media. The Yanks call it VP (Victory in the Paclfic) Day but they forget that we were fighting Japan in S E Asia, Burma and around our southern coast too

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