Leichhardt – Australia 2013

LNP 4.6%

Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously Member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.

History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. The seat has been won by a party of government at every election since 1972, which makes it one of Australia’s longest-standing bellwether seats, along with Eden-Monaro.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.

Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.

Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.

Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.

In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%.

Candidates

  • Frank Miles (Family First)
  • Dale Edwards (Rise Up Australia)
  • George Ryan (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Bruce Gibson (Palmer United Party)
  • Johanna Kloot (Greens)
  • Warren Entsch (Liberal National)
  • Billy Gordon (Labor)

Assessment
Leichhardt is a marginal seat, but in current circumstances should safely remain in Liberal National Party hands.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Warren Entsch LNP 37,828 47.40 +4.66
Jim Turnour ALP 27,662 34.66 -8.37
Neville St John-Wood GRN 7,232 9.06 +1.44
Jen Sackley IND 2,556 3.20 +3.20
Yodie Batzke IND 1,700 2.13 +2.13
Shannon McSweeney FF 1,461 1.83 +0.53
Steve Lane IND 1,373 1.72 +1.72

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Warren Entsch LNP 43,539 54.55 +8.61
Jim Turnour ALP 36,273 45.45 -8.61
Polling places in the south-eastern corner of Leichhardt. Central Cairns in orange, North Cairns in blue, South Cairns in yellow, Douglas in red. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in the south-eastern corner of Leichhardt. Central Cairns in orange, North Cairns in blue, South Cairns in yellow, Douglas in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most polling places lie in Cairns Regional Council. The remainder of polling places have been grouped as “Cape York”.

Polling places in the northern part of Cairns Regional Council, which previously was Douglas Shire, has been grouped as ‘Douglas’. The booths in the Cairns area have been divided into North, South and Central.

The LNP won a majority in the four areas in the Cairns local government area, varying from 52.8% in the centre of Cairns to 57% in the Douglas area. The ALP won a 52.6% majority in the Cape York area.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central Cairns 10.63 52.84 20,737 25.98
South Cairns 5.81 55.50 15,140 18.97
North Cairns 12.00 54.26 13,480 16.89
Cape York 5.55 47.41 5,750 7.20
Douglas 11.38 57.00 4,272 5.35
Other votes 8.45 57.28 20,433 25.60
Two-party-preferred votes in Leichhardt at the 2010 federal election.

Two-party-preferred votes in Leichhardt at the 2010 federal election.

Two-party-preferred votes in booths near Cairns in Leichhardt at the 2010 federal election.

Two-party-preferred votes in booths near Cairns in Leichhardt at the 2010 federal election.

Two-party-preferred votes in booths near Port Douglas in Leichhardt at the 2010 federal election.

Two-party-preferred votes in booths near Port Douglas in Leichhardt at the 2010 federal election.