Lalor – Australia 2013

ALP 22.1%

Incumbent MP
Julia Gillard, since 1998.

Map of Lalor's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Lalor’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Lalor covers areas on the western fringe of Melbourne and on the way to Geelong. The seat covers Werribee and surrounding areas. The seat covers all of Wyndham City and a small part of the City of Hobsons Bay near Altona.

Redistribution
Lalor previously covered the Melton area, and most of the Melton local government area. All of these areas were transferred to Gorton. Lalor expanded slightly into territory around Seabrook and Laverton that was previously part of Gellibrand. This slightly reduced the Labor margin from 22.2% to 22.1%.

History
Lalor was created in 1949 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has been won by the ALP at all but one election since then, and has usually been held by prominent Labor figures. All four Labor MPs for the seat have held ministerial office, including two Deputy Prime Ministers and a Prime Minister.

The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Reg Pollard. Pollard had previously held the federal seat of Ballarat since 1937, and had served as a minister in the Chifley government between the 1946 and 1949 elections. He held Lalor until his defeat in 1966.

Pollard lost his seat to Liberal candidate Mervyn Lee in 1966. Lee attempted to move to the neighbouring seat of Bendigo in 1969, but failed to win the seat.

Lalor was won in 1969 by the ALP’s Jim Cairns. He had previously held the seat of Yarra since 1955, but the seat was abolished at the 1969 election. Cairns was a leading light of the Labor Left and was a leader of the movement against the Vietnam War.

Cairns was appointed to Gough Whitlam’s ministry after the 1972 election. He was elected Deputy Leader of the ALP, and thus Deputy Prime Minister, after the 1974 election, and later was appointed Treasurer. Cairns, however, was caught up in a sex scandal and the ‘Loans Affair’, and Whitlam sacked Cairns from the ministry in July 1975. Cairns retired from the Parliament in 1977.

Lalor was won in 1977 by state Labor MP and former radio host Barry Jones. Jones served as Minister for Science in the Hawke government from 1983 to 1990, when he failed to retain factional support for his ministerial position. He went on to serve as National President of the ALP from 1992 to 2000 and again in 2005-6. Jones retired in 1998.

Lalor was won in 1998 by Julia Gillard, who had most recently been chief of staff to Victorian Labor leader John Brumby. Gillard was promoted to the Labor frontbench, first as Shadow Minister for Immigration then Shadow Minister for Health.

In late 2006 Gillard joined with Kevin Rudd on a Labor leadership ticket, and she was elected Deputy Leader of the ALP, and Gillard took on the Workplace Relations portfolio. She became Deputy Prime Minister after the election of the Rudd government in 2007. In June 2010 she became Prime Minister after she was elected as Labor leader. She served as Prime Minister until June 2013, when she was replaced as Labor leader by her predecessor Kevin Rudd, and she announced her retirement from politics.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Julia Gillard is not running for re-election.

  • Marion Vale (Rise Up Australia)
  • Geoff Rogers (Australian Christians)
  • Jonathan Page (Stable Population Party)
  • Michael Freeman (Democratic Labour Party)
  • Nathan Mullins (Independent)
  • Beck Sheffield-Brotherton (Greens)
  • Joe Zappia (Palmer United Party)
  • Angel Harwood (Sex Party)
  • Joanne Ryan (Labor)
  • Nihal Samara (Liberal)
  • Daryl Andrew Pollard (Family First)

Assessment
While Julia Gillard is expected to have a difficult time retaining her role as Prime Minister, her seat of Lalor is very safe for the ALP.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Julia GillardALP66,29864.25+4.36
Sheridan IngramLIB23,79123.06-6.71
Peter TaylorGRN7,0456.83+2.81
Lori McLeanFF2,8802.79-1.61
Paul SheehanSEC8810.85+0.85
Joanne ClarkeIND7080.69+0.69
Brian ShawIND65900.64+0.64
Van RuddIND5160.50+0.50
Marc Aussie-StoneIND4100.40+0.40

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Julia GillardALP74,45272.15+6.62
Sheridan IngramLIB28,73627.85-6.62
Polling places in Lalor at the 2010 federal election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lalor at the 2010 federal election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.  Those in “west” include Wyndham Vale and Werribee. Those in “central” include Hoppers Crossing and Tarneit. Those in “east” include Laverton and Seabrook.

The ALP won a majority in all five areas, varying from 71.8% in the east to 74.5% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
Central6.3974.4523,92239.36
West7.2572.4120,02032.94
East8.5871.7616,83627.70
Other votes6.5070.4628,867
Two-party-preferred votes in Lalor at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Lalor at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in central parts of Lalor at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in central parts of Lalor at the 2010 federal election.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Ged Kearney says she won’t contest Lalor. Earlier in the year it was suggested Feaney may be placed here

  2. The Age newspaper had a front page story today (08 Jul 13) on the ALP preselection hopefuls for Lalor. Gillards,former leaders pick, is a 51 year old state school head mistress who has not been a member of the ALP since 2010. Shorten pick is Andrew Landeryou wife Kimberley Kitching who was a former Melbourne City Councillor until the owner of there house Solomon Lew evicted them of not paying their rent (or house payments) for the house in North MelbourneI think. This may explain why Andrew is suspending his Vexnews website so he can help his wifes campaign.

  3. Am I the only one that thinks that Greens will see a significant surge in this seat? Nowhere near enough to take the seat, of course, but into the 12-15% primary vote range?

    I’m thinking this because it remains the only seat in the region to have the greens still in single digits, while all of the others in the area saw a significant boost in the 2010 election. This makes sense, as Gillard was PM at that election. With Gillard now retiring, the Greens should see their vote “normalise” to that of the surrounding regions, in my opinion.

  4. Yeh the greens should see a surge to atleast 12%, their senate vote was just below double digits and labors was 53% which shows Gillard commanded a substantial personal vote while the lib vote was 3% lower than the house of rep vote.
    This is also working class victoria so wouldn’t be suprised if another minor party did well rather then the greens but labor should see alot of voters turn to the greens and other minor parties

  5. The ABC Radio interview with the young women who has nominated from preselection in Lalor for the ALP was funny given she had only been a ALP member for less than a month and was trying out for one of the ALP most safe seat. The fact she was not from Lalor nor Melbourne was however not unusual as Greg Combet moved from Elwood to NSW to be parachuted into another working class electorate.

    Lalor was named after a terrorist Peter Lalor who was one of the leaders of the Eureka Stockade rebellion that was quickly and efficiently put to sword by Victoria Mounted Police and elements of the 40th and 12th Regiment of Foot based in Victoria Barracks, Melbourne. The two units were half way through a changeover at Victoria Barracks hence elements of both unit being lucky enough to match to Ballaarat to help uphold the law. Lalor later played a minor part as an MP in Parliament of the Colony of Victoria.

  6. Is the Family First candidate Pollard related to Reg Pollard who held the seat decades ago. Not that it matters really.

Comments are closed.