Kingston – Australia 2013

ALP 14.6%

Incumbent MP
Amanda Rishworth, since 2007.

Map of Kingston's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Kingston’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Kingston covers the southern fringe of Adelaide and coastal suburbs to the south of South Australia’s capital, including Aldinga and Noarlunga. The seat covers a majority of Onkaparinga LGA and part of Marion LGA.

Redistribution
Kingston lost semi-rural areas around McLaren Vale and Willunga in the south-east of the electorate to Mayo, which increased the ALP’s margin from 13.9% to 14.6%.

History
Kingston was first created in 1949, and in its sixty year history has been a classical marginal seat regularly changing hands. The seat has been represented by ten MPs in the last sixty years, and every former Member for Kingston lost the seat at an election to the opposing major party.

The seat was first won in 1949 by former SANFL football player Jim Handby for the Liberal Party. Patrick Galvin of the ALP won the seat in 1951 off Handby and held it for the next fifteen years. Galvin was himself defeated by Kay Brownbill of the Liberal Party in 1966.

Brownbill was defeated in 1969 by Labor’s Richard Gun. The party of government held Kingston from the 1972 election until 1998, with Gun winning re-election in 1972 and 1974.

Grant Chapman won the seat off Gun in 1975, and held the seat for the entirety of the Fraser government. Following his defeat in 1983 he went on to become a Senator for South Australia from 1987 until 2007.

Chapman was defeated in 1983 by Gordon Bliney of the ALP, who went on to serve as a minister in the Hawke and Keating governments. The seat was home to a challenge by Democrats leader Janine Haines in 1990, when she attempted to move to the House of Representatives. She polled over a quarter of the vote but failed to outpoll either major party. Bliney was defeated by Susan Jeanes in 1996, and Jeanes herself was defeated in 1998 before seeking a career in state politics, where she challenged Bob Such for preselection in Fisher, and Such was re-elected as an independent.

David Cox won the seat for the ALP in 1998 and held it until 2004, during which time he served on the Opposition frontbench. He was defeated in 2004 by former police officer Kym Richardson. Richardson was defeated in 2007 by 30-year-old psychologist Amanda Rishworth, and Rishworth was re-elected in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
On paper, Kingston’s margin of 14.6% should make the seat reasonably safe. Despite this margin, Amanda Rishworth could face a difficult race.

The swing to the ALP in Kingston at the 2007 and 2010 elections is equal to almost 14% of the vote – the biggest cumulative pro-Labor swing in Australia over that period. If that vote flows back to the Liberal Party, Rishworth’s margin almost entirely disappears.

If there is a strong swing against the ALP in South Australia, Kingston could well fall.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Amanda RishworthALP46,88251.05+4.40
Chris ZankerLIB26,65229.02-10.72
Palitja MooreGRN11,26412.27+6.60
Geoff DoeckeFF5,2885.76+0.05
Ron BakerDEM1,7481.90+0.95

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Amanda RishworthALP58,69563.91+9.49
Chris ZankerLIB33,13936.09-9.49

 

Polling places in Kingston at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, North in orange, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kingston at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, North in orange, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. The north and the centre are effectively parts of the Adelaide metro area, while the south covers the narrow coastal strip to the south of Adelaide.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 62.2% in the north to 69.1% in the centre.

The Greens vote varied from 10.9% in the north to 14.7% in the south.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
North10.8962.2030,48844.39
Central12.2069.0823,79034.64
South14.6566.8814,40120.97
Other votes11.9360.8018,248
Two-party-preferred votes in Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northern parts of Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northern parts of Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Kingston at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Kingston at the 2010 federal election.

13 COMMENTS

  1. Labor have certainly benefited from the latest redistribution, although a small portion of the votes, the booths transferred to Mayo were some of the best Liberal booths in the seat.

    Will certainly be a seat to watch on election night. Does anyone in the area know more about the current situation here?

  2. Internal polling shows that Rishworth is in tremendous trouble, particularly in the northern part of the seat. This could well fall before others in SA on smaller margins.

  3. Thanks for that DB, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this seat, Makin and Wakefield on election night!

  4. Does DB or anyone know how Liberal internal is looking in Kingston now? Apparently leaked Labor polling has shown that they will keep this seat.

  5. Probably a hold for Rishworth, but I don’t say it with any sort of confidence. I question any of the numbers in SA. They are volatile and small samples and I don’t have any recent specific seat polling. Mind you, there doesn’t appear to be any swing back to the Government in SA in recent times.

    I will say in SA generally, I expect there will be a larger swing to the Coalition than the average of the other states. What seats change hands as a result, I cannot be sure of. If you look at history, this seat generally falls to the Coaltiion in landslides so one shouldn’t be surprised if this occurred again, albeit redistributions have generally helped Labor in this seat.

    Regarding your ALP leaked polling, your information could be wrong. My understanding is that Gillard effectively banned any polling in SA specifically and that was mentioned in Fairfax papers about 4 weeks ago as a result of polls indicating that they could lose most of their SA seats.

  6. There has recently been ALP polling in SA. It does show a swing above the national average but the swing is largely in seats that have swung heavily to Labor over the past few elections (Wakefield, Kingston, Makin) rather than, say Hindmarsh/Adelaide.

    It’s hopeful but quite possible that the regional swings will be as such that Labor holds all of their SA seats.

  7. “It’s hopeful but quite possible that the regional swings will be as such that Labor holds all of their SA seats”
    While that’s theoretically possible, polling has shown that up to 4 will be lost.

  8. I don’t believe Labor will hold all seats since all seats were at one recent time held by the liberals. In essence they still contain the same voters who once voted liberal. I believe they will need to protect 6 of their seats maybe 7 if the greens pick up their vote and get liberal preferences in port Adelaide. A loss of the two seats maybe 1 if they are really lucky is the best possible outcome for them.

  9. I fully agree that all Labor seats bar Port Adelaide are, to varying degrees, on the table, but there is an outside chance that they’ll hold all six. I would expect a loss of one or two, but I couldn’t name which ones.

    Port is in no danger and this time around I would expect the Libs to boost their gap against the Greens in the race for second.

  10. I agree with PJ that Port Adelaide is in no danger, and I don’t really believe Kingston will be a loss for Labor either. Makin is the big question mark in South Australia, I think Labor will lose Adelaide and Hidmarsh, and most likely Wakefield. Adelaide will be the seat Labor pours the most amount of resources into holding along with Kingston.

  11. Yes, I’d say Wakefield, Makin, Adelaide are in grave danger with Kingston and Hindmarsh an outside chance. JWS sort of backs this up and very much in line with what internal polling suggests at times.

  12. Interestingly the bookies reckon Hindmarsh is most likely to flip, followed by an even money Adelaide and the rest as outsiders.

    I can see SA going a few different ways come election night.

Comments are closed.