Hinkler – Australia 2013

LNP 10.4%

Incumbent MP
Paul Neville, since 1993.

Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.

History
Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984.

Hinkler was won in 1984 by Bryan Conquest (NAT), who only held the seat until 1987, when Brian Courtice (ALP) won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and has held it ever since.

Neville’s margin was cut to less than 2% in 2007, but a swing of 8.9% in 2010 strengthened his hold on the seat.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Paul Neville is not running for re-election.

  • Leanne Donaldson (Labor)
  • David Dalgleish (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Reid Schirmer (Independent)
  • Troy Sullivan (Family First)
  • Keith Pitt (Liberal National)
  • Mark Simpson (Greens)
  • Rob Messenger (Palmer United Party)

Assessment
Hinkler is a safe LNP seat.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Paul NevilleLNP44,38254.95+8.67
Belinda McNevenALP26,24632.50-10.57
Jenny FitzgibbonGRN4,6115.71+1.63
Trevor VersaceFF2,5623.17-0.37
Adrian WoneIND1,6982.10+2.10
Cy D’OliveiraIND1,2641.57+1.57

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Paul NevilleLNP48,77060.39+8.87
Belinda McNevenALP31,99339.61-8.87
Polling places in Hinkler at the 2010 federal election. Bundaberg in orange, Fraser Coast in red, Isis in green, Woongarra in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Hinkler at the 2010 federal election. Bundaberg in orange, Fraser Coast in red, Isis in green, Woongarra in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Hinkler covers parts of Bundaberg and Fraser Coast council areas. Those in the Fraser Coast council area, including Hervey Bay, have been grouped together. Those in Bundaberg Region have been split between those in the Bundaberg urban area, those rural booths near Bundaberg as Woongarra, and those to the south of Bundaberg as Isis.

The LNP won a 55.4% majority in Bundaberg, and a majority of just under 62% in the other three areas.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Fraser Coast6.1661.9325,22131.23
Bundaberg4.9155.4220,32425.16
Woongarra5.5661.769,52411.79
Isis5.5461.343,3784.18
Other votes6.0262.4422,31627.63
Two-party-preferred votes in Hinkler at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Hinkler at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bundaberg at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bundaberg at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Hervey Bay area at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Hervey Bay area at the 2010 federal election.

56 COMMENTS

  1. Pup’s ticket directs to katter. I suggest 75/80 percent of pup voters will follow that. My belief is lnp around 35 to 40 percent, alp just over 30%, Kap around 15%, pup about 12%. I could be very wrong tho. About 5% margin in tpp

  2. Messenger’s probably a better chance among Palmer’s mob of getting in – better even than Palmer himself.

  3. Observer: “I recon that alot of LNP voters will go to KAP or PUP. SHould be retained by the LNP but should swing to labor”
    Which is basically what happened! At one point early in the count (about 7pm) it actually was projecting as a PUP gain….http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-166.htm

    I guess this seat came the closest to my ongoing call that most likely one of the mid nth Qld seats would throw us a surprise result with the PUP & KAP votes.

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