Gellibrand – Australia 2013

ALP 24.1%

Incumbent MP
Nicola Roxon, since 1998.

Map of Gellibrand's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Gellibrand’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Southwestern suburbs of Melbourne. Gellibrand covers most of the Maribyrnong and Hobsons Bay council areas. Suburbs include Altona, Seaholme, Williamstown, Newport, Spotswood, Kingsville, Yarraville, Seddon, Footscray, Tottenham, Braybrook and Maidstone.

Redistribution
Gellibrand lost Seabrook and areas near Laverton to Lalor in the south-west and lost Braybrook and parts of Maidstone and Maribyrnong to Maribyrnong in the north. Gellibrand expanded to the north-west, taking in Albion, Ardeer, Sunshine and Sunshine West from Gorton and Maribyrnong. The ALP’s margin was increased from 23.9% to 24.1%.

History
Gellibrand was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It has always been won by the ALP.

Gellibrand was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s John Mullens, a former state MP for Footscray. Mullens was expelled from the ALP in 1955 and joined the ALP (Anti-Communist), which evolved into the Democratic Labor Party. He lost his seat at the 1955 election.

Hector McIvor defeated Mullens in 1955. He held the seat for the next seventeen years, retiring at the 1972 election.

Ralph Willis won Gellibrand in 1972. He joined the Labor frontbench after the 1975 election defeat. Willis served as Shadow Treasurer for most of the Fraser government, but was replaced by Paul Keating shortly before the 1983 election.

Willis served as a cabinet minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, and upon the election of Paul Keating as Prime Minister, he was appointed Treasurer. He served in that role until the 1996 election, and retired in 1998.

Gellibrand was won in 1998 by Nicola Roxon. Roxon was promoted to the shadow ministry in 2001 and was appointed Minister for Health in the Rudd government after the 2007 election. She served as Attorney-General from 2011 until February 2013, when she returned to the backbench.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Nicola Roxon is not running for re-election.

  • Kerry Arch (Family First)
  • David McConnell (Liberal)
  • Anthony O’Neill (Australian Christians)
  • Tim Watts (Labor)
  • Dwayne Singleton (Palmer United Party)
  • Rod Swift (Greens)
  • Allan Cashion (Sex Party)

Assessment
Gellibrand is the safest Labor seat in the country.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nicola RoxonALP48,97158.81-1.41
David McConnellLIB19,07022.90+0.06
Rodney SolinGRN12,77915.35+5.97
Liz MumbyFF1,4401.73-0.29
Ben CourticeSA5280.63-0.96
Tania BaptistSEP4750.57+0.57

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nicola RoxonALP61,53173.90+2.44
David McConnellLIB21,73226.10-2.44
Polling places in Gellibrand at the 2010 federal election. Altona in blue, Footscray-Yarraville in green, North-West in yellow, Williamstown in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Gellibrand at the 2010 federal election. Altona in blue, Footscray-Yarraville in green, North-West in yellow, Williamstown in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the City of Maribyrnong have been grouped as “Footscray-Yarraville”. Those in the City of Brimbank have been grouped as “North-West”. Those in Hobsons Bay have been split into Altona in the west and Williamstown in the east.

The ALP won large majorities in all four areas, varying from 68.6% in Williamstown to 77.7% in the north-west. The Greens vote varied from 10.1% in Altona to 21.8% in Footscray-Yarraville.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
Footscray-Yarraville21.8376.8720,64432.71
Altona10.1275.4318,36329.09
Williamstown16.8368.5613,92022.06
North-West12.4577.7010,18716.14
Other votes14.7071.9320,771
Two-party-preferred votes in Gellibrand at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Gellibrand at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Gellibrand at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Gellibrand at the 2010 federal election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. This is my seat! I voted for the first time as an 18 year-old at the little 78 booth in the north-west. Gellibrand is a plum Labor seat and despite the retirement of excellent local member Nicola Roxon, the ALP should continue to maintain at least 65% TPP in 2013.

  2. Not this election, no.

    The seat is gentrifying rapidly, but there are still plenty of old-school working class Labor areas where the Greens do poorly.

    There’s nowhere near the concentration of 30-40% Green booths that you see in Batman, Wills, or Melbourne, for example.

  3. Fair comments.
    Strong local campaign by the Greens and labor’s stance on refugees may see labor first pref take a hit.

  4. I actually think it’s not outside of the bounds of reason that this seat ends up being Labor vs Greens at this election.

    I decided to have a look at Senate numbers in this seat in 2010, and Labor only got 48%, while the Greens got more in the Senate than in the House – nearly 19%. The Liberals were at 20%.

    The scenario I’m imagining is the Liberals losing a little to PUP but gaining a lot from Labor, with about 26% in the house, and Labor managing a lacklustre 45%. Greens managing a healthy 24% (gaining most of the remaining flow from Labor), and then the Sex Party getting 3% which would mostly flow to Greens. FF, Christians, and PUP would then get 2% between them.

    Sex preferences would be enough to push Greens to about 27%, while FF, Christians, and PUP would split roughly evenly or so between Labor and Liberal (FF preferences in 2010 went 50/50 between Labor and Liberal), bringing Liberals up to 27% as well. If Liberal preferences were to flow to Greens, the Greens would win the seat, I think… but the Liberals will almost certainly put Greens last.

  5. Minor correction – I said the Greens “would win” the seat… more accurately, the Greens would have a chance of winning it.

Comments are closed.