Forde – Australia 2013

LNP 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Bert Van Manen, since 2010.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.

History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing. The LNP’s Bert Van Manen won the seat back in 2010 with a 5% swing.

Candidates

  • Jonathan Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
  • Bert Van Manen (Liberal National)
  • Peter Beattie (Labor)
  • Keith Douglas (Australian Voice)
  • Blair Brewster (Palmer United Party)
  • Joshua Sloss (Independent)
  • Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Sally Spain (Greens)
  • Amanda Best (Family First)
  • Paul Roger Hunter (Katter’s Australian Party)

Assessment
Forde was an unexpected Labor gain in 2007 and returned to the conservative fold in 2010. The seat is held by a slim margin and will be heavily contested. Van Manen should benefit from a new personal vote.

The entry of former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie into the race was expected to shift Forde into a solid Labor gain, but recent polling suggests Beattie is struggling to win the seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bert Van Manen LNP 30,967 44.08 +0.01
Brett Raguse ALP 26,268 37.39 -8.92
Petrina Maizey GRN 8,583 12.22 +7.78
Melissa Raassina FF 4,440 6.32 +3.56

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bert Van Manen LNP 36,271 51.63 +4.99
Brett Raguse ALP 33,987 48.37 -4.99

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five parts. Booths in the Gold Coast council area are grouped as ‘South’. The remainder have been grouped as Central, North, East and West.

The LNP won large majorities in the north and south, while the ALP won smaller majorities in the centre, the east and the west.

Polling booths in Forde at the 2010 federal election. South in yellow, North in purple, East in green, Central in blue, West in red.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 12.33 47.58 15,413 21.94
East 12.04 46.74 12,181 17.34
North 12.42 59.10 9,817 13.97
South 11.66 57.41 9,458 13.46
West 12.48 48.85 6,180 8.80
Other votes 9.76 52.62 3,421 24.49

Two-party-preferred votes in Forde at the 2010 federal election.

Greens primary votes in Forde at the 2010 federal election.