Flynn – Australia 2013

LNP 3.6%

Incumbent MP
Ken O’Dowd, since 2010.

Geography
Central Queensland. Flynn covers Gladstone and comes close to covering the regional centres of Bundaberg and Rockhampton. It also covers the inland local government areas of Banana, Central Highlands and North Burnett, as well as parts of South Burnett.

History
Flynn was created for the 2007 election as a notionally National seat, taking parts of Maranoa, Capricornia and Hinkler. Capricornia has almost always been held by the ALP in recent decades, although the Nationals gained it for one term after both the 1975 and 1996 landslides. Maranoa has been held by the Nationals since the Second World War, while Hinkler’s shorter history has been dominated by the Nationals, except for two terms of the ALP holding the seat.

The 2007 redistribution saw Flynn created with a 7.7% margin for the Nationals, but a massive swing to the ALP saw the seat won by Chris Trevor by a slim margin.

In 2010, a 5.8% swing to the LNP saw Ken O’Dowd defeat Trevor.

Candidates

  • Craig Tomsett (Independent)
  • Ken O’Dowd (Liberal National)
  • Duncan Scott (Independent)
  • Kingsley Dickins (Rise Up Australia)
  • Serena Thompson (Greens)
  • Renae Moldre (Family First)
  • Steve Ensby (Palmer United Party)
  • Richard Love (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Chris Trevor (Labor)

Assessment
Flynn is a marginal seat, but in current circumstances the LNP should easily retain the seat at this election.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken O’DowdLNP37,58447.04+0.67
Chris TrevorALP31,89439.92-6.78
Di Hancock-MillsFF3,5864.49+2.48
Anne GoddardGRN3,1633.96+1.91
Duncan ScottIND3,0253.79+2.88
John McMahonDLP6400.80+0.80

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken O’DowdLNP42,80653.58+5.82
Chris TrevorALP37,08646.42-5.82
Polling places in Flynn at the 2010 federal election. Banana in blue, Bundaberg in purple, Burnett in orange, Central Highlands in yellow, Gladstone in green, Rockhampton in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Flynn at the 2010 federal election. Banana in blue, Bundaberg in purple, Burnett in orange, Central Highlands in yellow, Gladstone in green, Rockhampton in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas, along local government boundaries. Polling places in North Burnett and South Burnett council areas have been grouped together as ‘Burnett’. Polling places in the other five local government areas have been broken down by council area.

The LNP won a majority in five of six areas, from 50.4% in Rockhampton to 68.5% in Burnett. The ALP won a 58.3% majority in Gladstone, which makes up a large proportion of the vote in Flynn.

Voter groupLNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Gladstone41.7523,39329.28
Central Highlands57.249,62612.05
Burnett68.466,5988.26
Rockhampton50.406,2727.85
Bundaberg58.786,0797.61
Banana62.265,8597.33
Other votes57.2422,06527.62
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Flynn at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Flynn at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Gladstone at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Gladstone at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in parts of Flynn near Rockhampton at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in parts of Flynn near Rockhampton at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in parts of Flynn near Bundaberg at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in parts of Flynn near Bundaberg at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in parts of Flynn near Emerald at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in parts of Flynn near Emerald at the 2010 federal election.

31 COMMENTS

  1. Former Labor Member for Flynn, Chris Trevor has won preselection to contest this seat again for Labor. Although Katter’s Party may make a showing here, this seat should easily return Ken O’Dowd.

  2. I’m hearing that KAP might choose to preference the ALP in this seat (one of a few that I expect they do). Notwithstanding this, I reckon the Coalition will retain.

  3. This one is hard to call. Trevor being known will also help and I don’t think O’Dowd has done well in establishing is incumbency.

    It is also worth noting the Gladstone has a long time independent at state level and the Agnes Water, Miriam Vale, Rosedale areas were the strongest Rob Messenger booths at the state election. So a significant portion of the booths have an anti major party streak. I would expect Katter will have some appeal to these booths plus to the mining areas and the Callide rural belt where the Katter vote was reasonably strong in the state election. I think Katter ran second to Jeff Seeney in Callide.

    All that being said Katter’s state election vote mainly came from blue collar Labor voters that deserted the party. So if Labor holds up well in Gladstone and the area near Rocky then the Katter vote may disappoint. I tend to think the Labor vote will hold up well in this seat but I have no access to polling to back that up.

    So my analysis is that this is really a lottery and if DB is correct about Katter prefencing Labor it will come down to how much of Katter’s vote is taken off the LNP. If the bulk of Katter votes come off the ALP it will make no difference. If Katter takes a chunk of the LNP vote then it is game on.

  4. When Chris Trevor was the MP for Flynn he regularly made his way to Moore Park Beach for community meetings and events. He produced some good results for the local community. Ken O’Dowd never fronts up this far south of his electorate office and Moore Park Beach has stagnated. Literally.

  5. Moore Park resident – I wonder if that is just down your end of the seat? hHs he focused on the mining belt and the Gladstone and near Rocky areas?

  6. Hi Queensland Observer. I’m not sure where Ken spends his time or energies, but we don’t see him here at all. We have a local bi-monthly magazine called ‘shorelines’ to keep the community up to date on local issues. Chris Trevor used to contribute, but nothing from Ken. It might be that we are a small community at the bottom of his electorate, but he still takes our votes and we deserve some representation.

  7. As stated in my first post I think O’Dowd has not established his incumbency well at all and your statements Moore Park Resident confirm my thoughts.

    I think this seat can fall.

  8. Trevor won in 07’s Rudd-slide and lost on the back of the anti-Gillard knifing our Queenslander sentiment in 2010. Does anyone reckon with Rudd back and Trevor being a big Rudd backer there could be a sniff of victory here for the ALP? Remember it does have it’s share of Labor voting towns in this seat, eg Gladstone.

  9. Gap between the major parties closes in this seat.

    This evening, Centrebet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor strengthening from $4.50 to $2.90 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.15 to $1.35.

  10. Gap between the major parties continues to close in this seat.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Flynn show that support for Labor firms from $3.50 to $2.80 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.30 to $1.38.

  11. Gap is still closing between the major parties in this seat.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Flynn shows that support for Labor firms from $2.90 to $2.55 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.35 to $1.45.

  12. not named as in play by the Australian today, yet Rudd is meeting with Katter today about preferences.

  13. Lurch hasn’t been active for a few days, so I figured I’d give most recent figures here.

    Centrebet has LNP at $1.55 (from $1.45) and Labor at $2.30 (from $2.55)

    Sportsbet has LNP at $1.60 (from $1.38) and Labor at $2.25 (from $2.80)

  14. Momentum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor eases from $2.25 to $4.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.60 to $1.15. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $2.30 to $3.80 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.55 to $1.25.

  15. Family First candidate for the seat of Flynn is Matthew Darragh. Has a Bachelor of Applied Science and work experience in real estate. Matt is currently working in mines related employment.

  16. Encouragement for Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor tightens from $3.25 to $3.20 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.25 to $1.30.

  17. Setback for Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor drifts from $3.20 to $3.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.30 to $1.26.

  18. Surge for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor eases from $3.00 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.33 to $1.20.

  19. Encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor firms from $4.00 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.20 to $1.25.

  20. More momentum for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor slips from $3.00 to $3.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.33 to $1.25.

  21. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor eases from $3.50 to $3.80 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.26 to $1.22.

  22. Support continues for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor drifts from $3.80 to $4.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.22 to $1.18.

  23. Gap continues to widen between the major parties according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Flynn shows support for Labor slips from $3.50 to $3.80 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.25 to $1.20. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $4.25 to $6.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.18 to $1.08.

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