Chifley – Australia 2013

ALP 12.3%

Incumbent MP
Ed Husic, since 2010.

Geography
Western Sydney. Chifley covers western parts of the City of Blacktown. Chifley covers parts of the suburb of Blacktown and the neighbouring suburbs of Doonside, Mount Druitt, Rooty Hill, Marayong, Quakers Hill and  a number of other suburbs in the northwestern parts of Blacktown council area.

History
Chifley was created for the 1969 election, and has always been a safe seat for the ALP. The seat was first won in 1969 by the ALP’s John Armitage, who had previously held the neighbouring seat of Mitchell for one term from 1961 to 1963.

Armitage held the seat until his retirement at the 1983 election, when he was succeeded by Russell Gorman. Gorman transferred to the new seat of Greenway at the 1984 election, and Chifley was won by Deputy Mayor of Blacktown Roger Price. Gorman held Greenway until his retirement in 1996, while Price has been re-elected in Chifley at every election from 1984 until 2007, and retired in 2010.

Ed Husic was elected in Chifley in 2010. Husic had previously ran for Greenway unsuccessfully in 2004.

Candidates

  • Ammar Khan (Independent)
  • Ed Husic (Labor)
  • Isabelle White (Liberal)
  • Michael Wright (Democratic Labour Party)
  • Dave Vincent (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Alex Norwick (Australia First)
  • Ben Hammond (Greens)
  • Elizabeth Power (One Nation)
  • Christopher Buttel (Palmer United Party)

Assessment
Chifley has long been considered a safe Labor seat. In current circumstances, the ALP is concerned about holding on to Chifley, but a 12% margin is very solid, and Husic should benefit from a new personal vote.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ed HusicALP41,45651.58-11.60
Venus PriestLIB24,36930.32+5.42
Debbie RobertsonGRN6,7768.43+4.72
Dave VincentCDP4,0685.06+1.72
Louise KedwellON1,5851.97+0.67
Keith DarleyDEM1,1741.46+1.46
Terry CooksleyAF9431.17+1.17

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ed HusicALP50,10362.34-7.34
Venus PriestLIB30,26837.66+7.34

 

Polling places in Chifley at the 2010 federal election. Blacktown-Doonside in green, Mount Druitt-Rooty Hill in blue, North-West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Chifley at the 2010 federal election. Blacktown-Doonside in green, Mount Druitt-Rooty Hill in blue, North-West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Polling places have been split between those near Mount Druitt, near Blacktown, and those in the north-western part of the seat.

The ALP won a vote of just under 60% in Blacktown-Doonside and Mount Druitt-Rooty Hill, and a 67% majority in the north-west.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-West7.5666.9925,57331.82
Blacktown-Doonside8.4859.9424,12630.02
Mount Druitt-Rooty Hill7.0959.6213,67617.02
Other votes10.7660.9316,99621.15

chifley1-2pp

16 COMMENTS

  1. Look at that 58% Liberal booth… forever alone…

    Husić will hold on easily here, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the final margin enters marginal territory, like the state seat of Blacktown did at the 2011 election.

  2. The western part of the seat should ensure a hold for Husic. The south and eastern parts of the seat should favour the Liberals in 2PP terms. Not sure how easy the hold will be though. I think Husic will be nervous on election day. Expect the margin to be under 5% if the current polling remains firm, but Husic should be ok.

  3. North-west much public housing & welfare recipients test of how Labor is doing with those who should be its most solid base.

  4. Hi Mike,

    I don’t understand your comment, can you be more specific? I checked the Hunter page and I can’t see any Chifley information on that page.

  5. Under the sidebar “Federal Election 2013 guide”, if you click on Hunter, it takes you to Chifley.

  6. Interestingly, Labor managed to hang on to two of the state seats in this area (Mount Druitt, Blacktown) at the 2011 NSW election. There are quite a lot of rusted-on Labor people around this seat, which could make it a bit tougher to dislodge than some of the other seats surrounding it.

  7. Just read on The Age’s election blog that Rudd will be campaigning in Chifley today instead of Parramatta. Are things that crook in Western Sydney for the ALP?

  8. Rudd now on the campaign bus heading for Chifley according to Jennifer Maley. Apparently Rudd will not visit a single marginal ALP held seat in Sydney on the last day. What on earth is going on?

  9. DB, as if an appearance by Rudd is going to do anything in any marginal Sydney seat. The anti-Labor sentiment is viscious…..his appearance can only make it worse. Best go to safe seats like this where there’s rusted on folks going “how come the ALP never visits there heartland” they protest vote and low and behold Labor loses a seat like this. For the sanity and preservation of the party they’ve gotta hold a seat like this with a comfortable margin.

  10. Chifly that is amazing why does Ed Husic need Mr Rudd to visit 12.4%, I would be surprised…..

    DB internal Liberal polling does seat come into play ??????

  11. Perhaps Rudd is in Chifly to provide personal security after this bizarre incident,
    http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-moment-a-liberal-staffer-threatened-labor-mp-ed-husic8217s-sister-with-a-stanley-knife/story-fni0cx4q-1226713256424

    DB: “Apparently Rudd will not visit a single marginal ALP held seat in Sydney on the last day.”
    I’d question why someone with access to Lib internal polling would have access to Rudd’s itinerary for today DB? I’d say the same thing to Observer if he asserted some knowledge of Abbotts plans.

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