Brand – Australia 2013

ALP 3.3%

Incumbent MP
Gary Gray, since 2007.

Geography
Coastal towns south of Perth. Brand covers Kwinana and Rockingham council areas and northern parts of Mandurah council, with the seat stopping short of the centre of Mandurah.

History
Brand was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives for the 1984 election. It has always been held by the ALP.

Brand was first won in 1984 by Wendy Fatin. Fatin had won the seat of Canning off the Liberal Party in 1983, and moved to the safer seat of Brand in 1984. She served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1990 to 1993, and retired in 1996.

In 1996, Brand was won by Kim Beazley. Beazley had previously been elected to the marginal seat of Swan in 1980. Beazley served as a minister from 1983 in the Hawke government, first as Minister for Aviation, then as a cabinet minister from 1984 to 1996. Beazley was Deputy Prime Minister from 1995 to 1996. He moved to the safer seat of Brand in 1996

Beazley was elected Labor leader after their 1996 election loss, and led the ALP to the 1998 and 2001 elections. After losing in 2001 he stepped down as Labor leader. He challenged for the leadership twice in 2003, but lost first to Simon Crean and then to Mark Latham. After serving on Mark Latham’s frontbench in the lead-up to the 2004 election, he was elected Labor leader in early 2005. He served in that role until December 2006, when he was replaced by Kevin Rudd, and he retired from the seat of Brand at the 2007 election. Beazley is now the Australian Ambassador to the United States.

Brand was won in 2007 by Gary Gray. Gray had been employed as an election organiser for the Australian Labor Party national office from 1986 to 1999, and was National Secretary for the 1996 and 1998 elections.

Gray was re-elected in 2010 with his margin cut from 6% to 3.3%. Gray was promoted to Cabinet in March 2013 as Minister for Resources and Energy.

Candidates

  • Andrew Newhouse (Family First)
  • Craig Lawrence (Palmer United Party)
  • Gary Gray (Labor)
  • Mick Le-Cocq (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Paul James Young (Australian Democrats)
  • Gabrielle Lisanne Iriks (Rise Up Australia)
  • Dawn Jecks (Greens)
  • Bob Burdett (Australian Christians)
  • Donna Gordin (Liberal)

Assessment
Brand has always been held by the ALP, but has often come close to being lost. With the ALP doing very poorly in Western Australia at the moment, no Labor seat in the west is safe, and Brand could very well fall.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Gary GrayALP31,83240.80-5.53
Donna GordinLIB30,73139.38+1.28
Dawn JecksGRN11,50414.74+5.88
Andrew NewhouseFF2,1902.81+1.03
Robert BurdettCDP1,7712.27-0.30

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Gary GrayALP41,61053.33-2.65
Donna GordinLIB36,41846.67+2.65
Polling booths in Brand at the 2010 federal election. Kwinana in orange, Rockingham in blue, Warnbro in green, Mandurah in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling booths in Brand at the 2010 federal election. Kwinana in orange, Rockingham in blue, Warnbro in green, Mandurah in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in Kwinana and Mandurah local government areas have been grouped together. Booths in Rockingham local government areas have been split between Rockingham in the north and Warnbro in the south.

The ALP won majorities in three areas, varying from 60% in Kwinana to 50.2% in Warnbro. The Liberal Party won a majority of 51.9% in Mandurah.

The Greens vote peaked at 17% in Kwinana and dropped to 11.7% in Mandurah.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Rockingham15.2156.0219,70925.26
Warnbro14.4450.2218,80424.10
Kwinana17.2060.0810,75413.78
Mandurah11.7248.157,0909.09
Other votes14.3551.9221,67127.77
Two-party-preferred votes in Brand at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Brand at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Brand at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Brand at the 2010 federal election.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Labor did very well here compared to the rest of the state at the state election earlier this month, so Brand could very well stay Labor while Perth falls… Wouldn’t be surprised if the areas covering the state seat of Warnbro go Liberal though.

    Then again, a good chunk of this Labor vote is likely a personal vote for Mark McGowan, particularly in Rockingham, and for David Templeman in Mandurah.

  2. Also, many people that voted for Labor in the recent State election indicated that they would not be voting for Labor at the Federal level. Donna Gordin and her team have it all to play for. A lot of the result will be based on how Gary Gray performs in his new ministerial roles. Kind of a poisoned pill, though, as he his indicated he is a strong proponent of a number of policies that are generally reviled in WA.

  3. I anticpate the Libs will probably pick this one up. The ALP did well in this region in the State Election relatively, however, I am also hearing on the ground here that a lot of people who voted Labor in the State Election will not suppport Labor federally.

  4. I’m surprised the Greens did so well in Kwinana, it’s a pretty rough, lower-class area. Its main features are the oil refinery, desal plant and other heavy industry, kinda like Altona. Possibly these are the same people who voted for Carol Adams in the last couple of state elections?

  5. SportsBet has the Coalition as favourite ($1.57 Lib, $2.30 ALP), whilst Centrebet has the ALP as favourite ($1.73 ALP, $2.00 Lib).

  6. Apparently Bob Hawke was dragged out to launch Gary Gray’s campaign here a week or so ago.

    Maybe they are worried about it, although I thought the state breakdowns showed Labor slightly improving in WA?

  7. Given that Hawke grew up in WA its understandable he would campaign there, he always generally does. I don’t think labor will lose a seat in WA given taht they can take resources out of Swan, Hasluck and Perth if they are in danger

  8. Bob Hawke showing up was just Gray flexing his influence muscles, little more. This seat should be retained by the ALP, the majority of the State seats in this electorate are safe Labor.

    The State Liberal party is in a bit of a tough over some broken promises and a dismal budget. This seat was in play under Gillard, but with Rudd and Colin’s last couple of bad press weeks I think Labor should maintain a 4-5% margin.

  9. Galaxy poll out does not put 2PP, however, both parties said to be on 42% each. I’d suggest that would place Gray slightly ahead (if correct) based on a reasonable Green vote.

  10. Horrible result for the Greens here, with their vote more than halving. They came fourth behind PUP. They did pretty badly in Freo too… maybe the Carles saga is still having an effect in this part of the world?

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