Bonner – Australia 2013

LNP 2.8%

Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.

History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.

At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.

A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party.

Candidates

Assessment
After three terms, Bonner has never returned the sitting member for a second term. Vasta has now run for the seat three elections in a row and should have a solid personal vote, but the seat is vulnerable to a swing back to Labor.

If Kevin Rudd’s return to the Prime Ministership sees a swing back to Labor in Queensland, this seat would be likely to fall.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ross Vasta LNP 38,105 46.38 +4.47
Kerry Rea ALP 29,639 36.07 -12.73
Darryl Rosin GRN 9,188 11.18 +6.28
Carolyn Ferrando FF 2,318 2.82 +0.89
Greg Sowden IND 1,984 2.41 +2.41
Utz Wellner DLP 931 1.13 +1.13

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ross Vasta LNP 43,400 52.82 +7.35
Kerry Rea ALP 38,765 47.18 -7.35

Polling booths in Bonner at the 2010 federal election. Mount Gravatt in green, Central in blue, Wynnum-Manly in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the Central part of the seat.

The LNP won a 56.9% majority in the centre and 54.5% in Mount Gravatt. The ALP won 54.2% in Wynnum-Manly.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Mount Gravatt 11.67 54.45 23,206 28.24
Wynnum-Manly 11.92 45.83 20,298 24.70
Central 9.61 56.85 19,102 23.25
Other votes 11.37 54.22 19,559 23.80

Two-party-preferred votes in Bonner at the 2010 federal election.

Greens primary votes in Bonner at the 2010 federal election.