Kurrajong – ACT 2016

Incumbent MPs contesting Kurrajong

  • Andrew Barr (Labor)
  • Steve Doszpot (Liberal)
  • Shane Rattenbury (Greens)

Geography
Kurrajong covers the central suburbs of Canberra on either side of Lake Burley Griffin. Kurrajong stretches from Red Hill in the south to Watson and Downer in the north. It also covers the city centre, the parliamentary triangle, Yarralumla, the inner south suburbs of Barton, Kingston and Manuka, and the inner north suburbs of Turner, O’Connor, Lyneham and Ainslie.

Redistribution
Kurrajong covers the central parts of the former seven-member electorate of Molonglo. Molonglo previously covered the inner north and inner south of Canberra, but also covered a majority of the Gungahlin district in the north, which now makes up the central core of the new electorate of Yerrabi, and parts of the Woden Creek and Weston Creek districts in south-western Canberra, which are now in the new electorate of Murrumbidgee.

History (Molonglo)
The electorate of Molonglo was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time. The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone three minor redistributions prior to the 2001, 2008 and 2012 elections.

Molonglo has always elected 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and one Green. The other two seats have been shared. At three out of six elections, Molonglo elected three Labor and three Liberal. In 1995 and 1998, Labor only won two seats, with the other seat going to an independent. In 2008, the Liberal Party’s third seat was lost to a second Green.

At the first election in 1995, the Liberal Party elected three members and Labor elected two. Michael Moore was elected as an independent, and Kerrie Tucker was elected as a Greens MLA. The same split of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens and an independent was maintained in 1998.

In 2001, Labor won a third seat upon the retirement of independent MLA Michael Moore. This split of 3 Liberal, 3 Labor and one Green was maintained in 2004.

Gary Humphries’ term as Chief Minister had ended at the 2001 election. He was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate as the sole Liberal Senator representing the ACT in late 2002. In early 2003, his Assembly seat was filled by Jacqui Burke, returning to the Assembly for a second time.

In 2008, the Liberal Party won two seats, while the Greens won a second seat. Labor held on to their three seats.

In 2012, the Liberal Party regained their third seat, while the Greens were reduced to one seat.

Candidates

  • A – Labor
    • Andrew Barr*
    • Josh Ceramidas
    • Leah Dwyer
    • Richard Niven
    • Rachel Stephen-Smith
  • B – Liberal Democrats
    • Mark Ellis
    • Michael O’Rourke
    • Hugh Upton
  • C – Greens
    • Shane Rattenbury*
    • Jill Thomsen
    • Rebecca Vassarotti
  • D – Like Canberra
    • Chris Bucknell
    • Maryann Mussared
  • E – Liberal
    • Candice Burch
    • Brooke Curtin
    • Steve Doszpot*
    • Elizabeth Lee
    • Peter McKay
  • F – Canberra Community Voters
    • Richard Farmer
    • Mike Hettinger
    • Lucinda Spier
  • G – Sustainable Australia
    • John Haydon
    • Oliver Tye
  • Ungrouped
    • Jeff Isaacs (Animal Justice)
    • Marea Fatseas
    • Peter Robinson
    • Graeme Strachan

Assessment
Labor has two safe seats, and the Liberal Party has one safe seat. It’s likely that the Greens and the Liberal Party will win the last two seats, although if there is a swing towards Labor they have the potential to win a third seat off one of the other parties.

2012 result

2012 electionRedistribution
PartyVotes%QuotaSwing%Quota
Labor 36,97240.43.231+4.340.72.439
Liberal 34,26137.42.994+5.933.31.997
Greens 12,06513.21.054-5.016.71.001
Bullet Train for Canberra4,1114.50.359+4.55.20.313
Motorist Party1,8972.10.166-0.71.70.101
Liberal Democratic Party1,1271.20.098+0.31.20.073
Others1,1011.20.0961.30.075
Informal2,7532.9

Booth breakdown

Polling places in the new seat of Kurrajong have been split into three parts. Polling places south of Lake Burley Griffin have been grouped together. Those on the north side of the lake have been split between those clustered around Civic, including Braddon, Reid and Campbell, and those in the inner north.

Labor topped the primary vote in the centre and north, with the vote ranging from 38% in the south to 44.6% in the north.

The Liberal Party’s vote ranged from 22.8% in the north to 42% in the south, managing to outpoll Labor in the south.

The Greens vote ranged from 12% in the south to 23% in the north, narrowly outpolling the Liberal Party in the inner north suburbs.

Voter groupALP %LIB %GRN %Total votes% of votes
North44.622.823.212,08827.0
South38.042.012.010,58723.7
Central39.432.517.25,72612.8
Pre-poll40.434.016.111,61326.0
Other votes38.539.911.24,68810.5

Election results in Kurrajong at the 2012 ACT election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

4 COMMENTS

  1. The major parties don’t seem to be promoting their name candidates – here Barr and Doszpot – nearly as heavily as the lesser known fresh faces.

    Presumably the idea is that those candidates should coast to a quota on name recognition alone, so the parties are trying to spread their remaining vote around a bit more evenly.

  2. As far as I’m aware all of the Labor candidates are running their own campaigns. Not sure about Liberals (they seem to have much more overlaps than Labor in terms of branding) but Greens are promoting a “lead” candidate in each seat.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here