Comments on: My Queensland prediction: part one

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 02:21:54 +0000

The ALP won 59 seats in 2006. But if you count it based on the redistribution then it is 20, which would probably be more accurate actually.

Looking at my scenario, if I’ve overestimated the LNP swing in the Gold Coast the ALP wins, and if I’ve underestimated the LNP swing in Brisbane then the LNP wins a majority.

By: Stephen L

Stephen L — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 02:08:44 +0000

Wouldn’t 42 seats be a fall of more than 17 for Labor?

More generally, it looks to me like the whole election will turn on how much Gold Coast voters like the stadium plan – if it saves Labor’s bacon in 3 seats there they could be back in government. If not, they’re almost certainly gone.

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 17:34:31 +0000

(And of course I stuff something up… Jo-Ann Miller is the current MP for Bundamba, Patricia Petersen is the independent. Whoops.)

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 17:26:38 +0000

Unsafe to the independent, Jo-Ann Miller? There’s some news stories floating around about the Labor member hitting her at some kind of meet ‘n’ greet thing…

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/18/2519703.htm

Hey, it might just happen. I know exactly nothing about this Miller character, but check out the seat of Kwinana at the last WA election. One of the safest Labor seats in the state almost went to a local independent, so I wouldn’t be that surprised if a similar thing happened here. There seem to be a few parallels between the two elections, actually.

Also, there seems to be a few Nationals reading blogs these days… David Gibson (Gympie) pops up occasionally on Larvatus Prodeo. G’day Stuart. *waves* I hope you don’t mind that (a) I assume you’ll rejoin the Nationals as soon as you win (that’s my tip too, and there’s some nice historical symmetry in it), and (b) I mix you up with the drummer from the Police.

By: The Tally Room » My Queensland prediction: part two

The Tally Room » My Queensland prediction: part two — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:04:39 +0000

[...] For my South-East Queensland predictions, check out last night’s post. [...]

By: Jenny

Jenny — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:48:13 +0000

Here’s my 10 cents, the Labor “safe” seat of Bundamba is no longer safe. Voters in Ipswich are sick of not being listened to, and laughed at by our representatives. They got in on a wave when Peter Beattie was the best thing since sliced bread, and because they were women. They have actually put woman back 50 years.

By: Stuart Copeland

Stuart Copeland — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:44:23 +0000

Thanks for the reckless prediction – hope you are right. I think you are the first and only person to predict a Copeland victory.
Stu