Comments on: Ireland: economic crisis, early election?

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 00:36:53 +0000

Hmm, I don’t know. If an alternative Fine Gael/Labour/Greens/Sinn Fein govt is proposed, and FF can either resign or call an election, I don’t think they would call an election. Remember they are currently polling about half of their 2007 result and in danger of dropping into third place. Some time in Opposition might do them good.

On the other hand, Fine Gael and Labour might prefer to bring down the government and force an election, as they would both undoubtedly gain seats and be able to form a stable two-party governing majority.

By: Simon Copland

Simon Copland — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 23:44:37 +0000

I guess that is true, but does it seem plausible? I think if the Greens were to get out Fianna Fall would call an election – they really wouldn’t have any other choice, unless they think they can form government on their own and hold out for a little longer to try an recover. Whatever happens, the Greens need to change or they will be obliviated at the next election.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 23:21:22 +0000

Ideally, what they would want to do is get out of their current governing arrangement without triggering an election.

Fine Gael + Labour + Greens = 77
Fianna Fail = 76

Then it boils down to the independents and Sinn Fein. If you assume Sinn Fein supports the FG/Labour government, then that brings its numbers up to 81, then you need two of the independents, which would be plausible.

In this scenario the Greens would support the new government but wouldn’t take ministries. They need time to recover from this massive cockup before an election.

By: Simon Copland

Simon Copland — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 22:59:42 +0000

I haven’t been following this too closely, but from what I can tell the Greens have been really stupid here. I know they have lost a number of members who have jumped ship and it looks like they will get wiped off unless they change their positions soon. Strangely enough stopping the support of the government at this time seems like it could lead to an early election and a growth in support for the Greens.

So, my question is, why aren’t they doing it?

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 22:22:20 +0000

Yeah, I agree that the decision to go into government with Fianna Fail, and everything that has gone with it, was spectacularly unwise for the Irish Greens.

The only way to redeem themselves, I would think, would be to find a way to support a Fine Gael/Labour government with them outside government and use that position to repair their links with their base.

By: Tad

Tad — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:59:06 +0000

The Irish Greens may be aligned with other Green parties in terms of policy, but their readiness to dump principle in favour of cabinet positions was spectacular to say the least (it seemed to take the German Greens much longer to sell out!).

My understanding from activists I know in Ireland is that the Greens’ membership has been thrown into some crisis over the MPs’ “pragmatic” actions. Support for the Lisbon Treaty would also have been disastrous. Rather than some great statement of cross-National progressivism, the Treaty is yet another statement of how big business needs must come first in the new Europe, with a handful of sweeteners for the unions. No wonder the ordinary voters of Ireland opposed it and that the arguments of small groups of left-wing activists were able to find such a hearing.

The Irish Greens deserve all they get, I’m afraid, for the mess they have got themselves into.