So here’s where we are the day after the election.
Labor suffered a 9.3% swing against them, while the Liberals suffered a 3.7% swing and the Greens polled 15.8%, a 6.6% swing.
In Brindabella, Labor lost one of its three seats, resulting in two Labor, two Liberal and one Green. It appears that two sitting MLAs have been defeated by their own parties: Mick Gentlemen and Steve Pratt both came third, with a new candidate polling second.
In Ginninderra it appears that two Labor, two Liberal and one Green have been elected. The ABC website says that the second Liberal is at risk of losing to a third Labor, but I can’t see it. It really depends on the preference flows.
In Molonglo, it has become much more interesting. Three Labor (the three sitting Cabinet ministers), one Liberal (Zed) and one Green (Shane) have all been elected. The last two seats appear to be a contest between five people: Jeremy Hanson on 0.30, Giulia Jones on 0.21, Caroline le Couteur on 0.30, Elena Kirschbaum on 0.29, and Frank Pangallo on 0.31. A third sitting MLA has been defeated in Jacqui Burke, who was the fifth-polling Liberal.
First of all, it’s worth pointing out that one of the Liberals will win one of these seats, but either of them could lose. Also remember that Zed Seselja has 0.49 surplus, and 0.48 quotas cast for other Liberals. This should be enough to solidify the position of either Jeremy or Giulia, but would leave the other out in the cold. On the other hand, Shane Rattenbury polled 0.89 quotas. Considering the high vote for his fellow Greens, they should hold on long enough for Shane to be elected with preferences from other candidates, allowing most of the third Green’s preferences flow straight to the second Green. This would put either Caroline or Elena on almost 0.60 quotas. I find it difficult to see how the third Liberal could get above 0.5 quotas without non-Liberal preferences. It seems impossible that Pangallo, without fellow candidates preferencing him, can compete. Although his preferences could decide the race.
William Bowe at Poll Bludger has also pointed out that a lot of Gallagher voters may be feminists voting specifically for women. Considering that none of the other Labor women are in with a shot of winning, those votes could flow to the two Green women.
Overall, it could go any way. The two Green women are effectively tied in the race, which reflects the vast majority of Greens voters who cast a donkey vote down the Green ticket, evenly splitting their votes between the three candidates. This donkey vote also means that preferences should flow almost universally between the two women, assuming Rattenbury doesn’t use up many votes reaching quota.