It’s a delightful irony that, like “Honest John” before him, Lawrence Springborg’s LNP have taken to calling their leader “The Borg” with no apparent sense of irony or awareness of the meaning of the nickname. Springborg is heading into his third election as leader of the Opposition, this time as leader of the newly-merged “Liberal National Party”. Despite their best efforts to cloak themselves in Liberal garb (putting the “Liberal” before the “National” for one), the party remains clearly dominated by the Nationals, and has removed the ability of Liberal candidates in Brisbane to distinguish themselves from their country brethren.
Only two Liberal National MPs hold seats in the City of Brisbane, and one of those two, Tim Nicholls, has seen his seat of Clayfield switch to be notionally Labor following the recent redistribution. Without winning any seats outside of Brisbane, Labor is already within spitting distance of forming a majority, holding 36 seats just in the Brisbane area, with 45 needed for a majority.
This demonstrates the biggest problem for the opposition. In order to win, the opposition must gain ground in Brisbane. Yet the Opposition has been dominated by the Nationals, with little support in South-East Queensland. With a National heading up the non-Labor side, Liberals have struggled to present a more urban image to their urban voters, resulting in pathetic results for the Liberals. In spite of their name, it appears that the LNP has worsened these problems.
It seems safe today that, barring a massive change in fortunes, Anna Bligh will be the first woman to win a state election in Australia, and the most successful female party leader in Australian politics. Springborg pointed out today that, with today’s electoral geography, the LNP cannot win on 50% of the two-party-preferred vote, with about 52% needed to get the swing sufficient, but it probably won’t be their problem. The LNP has so far demonstrated a remarkable similarity in its campaign strategy to the losing battles of 2001, 2004 and 2006, and something pretty big will need to change for Springborg to pull off a win.
Coming soon to the Tally Room: As well as covering the day-to-day events in the election campaign, I plan to run a series of posts on individual key marginal seats, breaking down the booth figures to give you an idea of the key areas in this campaign.
WRT all the criticism of Borg and the LNP…at some point electoral gravity will be the over-riding factor. Labor’s been in power for 11 years now, 18 out of 20, and the sort of baggage common for decade-old governments is now accumulating. Most seats have vastly inflated Labor margins. There’s no Beattie, and no John Howard to kick around any more. Surely by now Queensland is ripe for a swing no matter how ordinary the Opposition look.
Look at WA, where the Liberals won despite being a laughing stock led by a guy who was planning to retire. Or NSW, where O’Farrell’s hardly inspiring but should romp it in. As a government gets older the bar for the opposition gets lower and lower. It could well be that Borg’s “nice bloke who’s not too hopeless” schtick is enough to get them over.
It’s true that Anna Bligh would become the first woman to win a state election in Australia, but for completeness I note that Rosemary Follett, Kate Carnell and Clare Martin have all won territory elections.
Yeah, but territories really are much less significant than a big and complex state like Queensland.
But then again, Anna Bligh wouldn’t be the most successful party leader in Australian Politics. I’d beg to differ and say Claire Martin was – delivering ALP from a wilderness of 27 years and then romping in with 19 out of 25 seats… [let's not get picky territories vs state relevance]… that’s quite a big thumping and would make her the most successful on that account. If Bligh pulls in a second election victory of similar proportions to this one [assuming all goes well - which looks to be the case] then she can have those bagging rights.
On the other hand, Kate Carnell managed to put together a Liberal government in a Labor town.
I was thinking of that one too, kme. Both Martin and Carnell did an excellent job of forming government in a demographically hostile environment.