USA 2010: Introducing the midterms

The United States of America holds federal elections every two years, always in even numbered years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Every two years, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and approximately one third of the US Senate are elected. In years divisible by four (2004, 2008, 2012), these elections also coincide with presidential elections.

In every other even-numbered year, the US holds a midterm election to elect members of Congress and other offices. This year, that election will take place on November 2.

This year, I will be in the United States for the last week of the midterm elections, and will be in Washington DC for election day. I plan to blog extensively about the midterms over the next two months.

In both houses of Congress, the Democrats currently hold large majorities, after strong results at the 2006 and 2008 elections, and are vulnerable to losing seats in 2010.

The Republican Party held a majority in the House of Representatives from 1994 until the 2006 midterms, when the Democrats gained 31 seats, and won a majority. At the 2008 election, the Democrats gained a further 21 seats (on top of three won in special elections), giving them 257 seats to 178 Republicans.

In 2010, most commentators expect the Republicans to recover ground, but it will be very hard for the party to win the 40 seats needed to form a majority.

In the Senate, 37 seats are to be elected in 2010. Thirty-four seats will be filled for a full six-year term. In addition, three special elections will be held. Vice President Joe Biden’s former seat in Delaware will filled for a four-year term. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s former seat in New York will be filled for a two-year term. In West Virginia, the seat formerly belonging to Robert Byrd, who died in late June, will be filled for a two-year term. In all three cases, Democratic governors filled the seats with temporary appointments, which will end following the special election.

The Democrats had strong results at the 2006 and 2008 elections, and most of those senators are not up for election in 2010. In 2006, the Democrats managed to win a 51-49 majority (counting independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman). They increased this to a 60-40 majority in 2008. Following the death of Senator Ted Kennedy, the Democrats lost his Massachusetts seat to the Republicans in a special election earlier this year.

While the Democrats hold large majorities amongst Senators elected in 2006 and 2008, the Republicans hold more of the seats elected in 2004, which will be up for election this November. Having said that, momentum is against the Democrats, and they look certain to lose ground in the Senate.

Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight (now hosted by the New York Times) estimates two Democratic Senate seats (North Dakota and Arkansas) to have a 100% chance of being lost, with a further nine being estimated to have a chance of over 30%, with only a single Republican seat (Florida) considered to have such a high chance. While it is unlikely the Democrats will lose their majority, it looks set to be seriously dented.

Unlike in Australia, most state elections in the US also take place on the same day in November, although the year may vary. 34 states elect their Governors for four year terms at the same time as the midterm elections. A further two (New Hampshire and Vermont) elect governors for two-year terms in both presidential and midterm years. Out of the remaining 14, nine elect theirs at the same time as the Presidency, three are elected the year before a presidential election, and two are elected the year after.

In 2010, in addition to the 36 regular gubernatorial elections, the state of Utah (which normally elects its governor in presidential election years) will have a special election, after Governor Jon Huntsman was appointed Ambassador to China.

The results of gubernatorial elections in 2010 will be particularly significant, due to the upcoming census. The United States holds a census every ten years in a year divisible by ten, and one is currently taking place. Following the decennial census, the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are allocated to the fifty states according to population.

Following this change, states will then undergo redistricting. The drawing of electoral boundaries in the United States is decided by each state government, and is done in most states without any concern about political impartiality, with legislatures and governors shamelessly drawing convoluted boundaries to give their party more seats and give members of Congress inflated majorities.

You can see some of the gerrymandered electoral boundaries from the last round of redistricting after 2000 by downloading the US electoral maps from the Tally Room maps page.

With these redistricting plans being drawn up before the 2012 House election, the make-up of state legislatures and the political hue of governors can make a real impact on the number of seats each party can win at congressional elections for the next decade.

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