Ever since I started this blog, I’ve had a tradition of making last-minute predictions of election results, recklessly making predictions about how individual seats would fall.
I’ve quickly done one for tomorrow’s federal election. I notice it’s quite similar to William Bowe’s over at Poll Bludger, although I have the ALP winning one more seat: McMillan in Victoria.
My House of Representatives prediction: 80 Labor (down eight), 66 Coalition (up seven), 3 independents and one Green (up one).
My Senate prediction: 34 Coalition (down three), 33 Labor (up one), 8 Greens (up three) and one independent.
Generally my feeling is we will see very different swings between states, with Labor losing ground in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, and gaining ground in Victoria and South Australia.
I predict that the ALP will gain four seats. They should pick up the seat of Boothby in South Australia, that would likely have been won in 2007 if not for a poor campaign by the ALP. In Victoria I’m also expecting to see a surprisingly large swing to the ALP. Unfortunately for Labor, there are not many marginal seats available after La Trobe and McEwen fall on small swings. I’ve actually predicted that McMillan could fall, not that I know a great deal about the local circumstances there, but because I think the swing to the ALP in Victoria could put seats like McMillan in play. I also think the Greens will gain the seat of Melbourne off the ALP, but will fall short in Sydney and Grayndler. Having said that, I expect to see Grayndler improve its position and possibly draw even or overtake Sydney in terms of the future swing needed for the Greens to win.
The ALP should be able to solidly hold onto all nine seats in Tasmania and the territories, including the marginals of Solomon, Bass and Braddon.
Apart from Melbourne, I expect the ALP to lose eleven seats to the Coalition in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
In New South Wales, sitting Liberal MPs should be able to overturn notional Labor majorities in Gilmore and Macquarie, and the new Liberal candidate in Macarthur should be able to do likewise. I also predict that the ALP will lose Robertson after Belinda Neal’s shaky hold on the seat for the last term. I can’t see the ALP losing marginals like Bennelong, Page or Eden-Monaro.
In Western Australia, I think we’ll see Labor lose Swan and Hasluck.
In Queensland, the LNP should hold onto the notional Labor seats of Herbert and Dickson, and regain Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn. In Longman, I expect that the anti-Labor surge won’t be enough to make up for poor candidate selection.
In the Senate, I’m expecting the Greens to gain three seats on the east coast, giving them a solid hold on the balance of power. I am predicting an overall Senate balance of 34 Coalition, 33 Labor, 8 Greens and Senator Xenophon.
In New South Wales, I expect the Greens vote to be high enough to put them well ahead of the third Labor candidate, producing a 3-2-1 split favouring the Coalition.
In Victoria, however, a swing to the ALP and a high Greens vote could well produce a 3-2-1 split in favour of the ALP, reversing the 4-2 right majority of 2004. This would see both Family First and the Coalition lose a seat in Victoria.
In Queensland, I expect the Labor vote to be low enough for the Greens, with a solid primary vote in the low double digits, to overtake and win the seat.
In Western Australia, a low Labor vote will allow the Greens’ Rachel Siewert to win re-election.
In South Australia, I expect that an increased Greens vote will not make up for the absence of Nick Xenophon. With the major party votes restored to their former position, I think it will be hard for the Greens to win.
In Tasmania, Christine Milne should easily win re-election. I predict that the ALP will again win three seats.
In the ACT, I expect to see the Liberals’ vote fall further, but not far enough for the Greens to win. I expect the Democrats’ decision to preference the Liberal Party will be enough to hold on to the seat, although below the line voting in a small field could change that result.
Please post your own predictions below.
Best of luck with the election. Can I ask when the polls close and where the best place for results will be?
I’m too far away to make a prediction, despite following as much media as I possibly can from the UK – it’s just not the same as being on the ground in a campaign. I think Bennelong will be close, though. North Epping is my “booth to watch” there – if it goes below 52% for Alexander then Maxine’s won it, I reckon; but West Ryde and Eastwood are pretty much where it will happen (or not) for her – if she doesn’t win W Ryde pretty much outright or close to it she’s gone. Greens preferences crucial – Ryde-Epping have run a great campaign by the sounds of it; I think Lindsay’s vote will improve but perhaps not as much as we’d hope. An interesting crop of new voters including Ryto junior (yay!) will change the shape of some booths, I suspect… or at least, I hope!!
Ooh I like my default avatar, BTW!
And thanks for your commentary, Ben – remember that people like me will be relying on your blog and tweets! All the best for a great day for The Greens on Saturday.
I don’t care what the split is – just that Tony Abbott stays out of The Lodge.
I reckon that Labor would win Hughes before they won Bennelong. And I have lived in both seats! I can tell you that the Chinese are voting Liberal in Bennelong. I reckon the Libs will win it easily.
@Harry,
The AEC will be publishing results on the Virtual Tally Room at http://www.aec.gov.au.
Antony Green’s website at abc.net.au/elections will also have very useful information on the election results.
Hi Ben
I hope you are right!
Pauline
Harry
Re your other question, polls close at 6pm local time everywhere, so that would be 9:00am your time for the eastern states, 9:30 for South Australia and the Northern Territory, and 11:00 for Western Australia. I believe technically the polls will first close on Lord Howe Island, which is half an hour ahead of eastern standard time. It’s contained in the seat of Sydney and I think has about 200 voters.
I think the Greens will definitely win senate spots in Tas, WA, Vic and QLD. I think you may also win 1 of either NSW or the ACT. I hope you’re right and Victoria goes 3 ALP 1 Green 1 Lib and 1 Nat.
I think the Greens will win Melbourne, and come second in Batman. The ALP should win McEwen, although I don’t know if they will pick up La Trobe – it just hasn’t shifted much over the last 20 years (but I hope they do win it). They may even have a shot at picking up Dunkley.
Longman might be back in play for the LNP after the Labor MP’s terrible comments on ABC radio yesterday
ACT Senate has been interesting – a rolling series of issue seminars all this week. If Greens do not succeed it will not be for want of poll workers tomorrow – there has been widespread community engagement well beyond the usual activists.
Greens have out leafletted and out advertised the Liberals in print advertising
These are my tips:
QLD: Labor to lose:
Leichhardt
Flynn
Dawson
Herbert
Dickson
and two of: Forde, Petrie, Longman, Bonner
7 gains for the co-alition
NSW: Labor to lose
Robertson
Macquarie
Lindsay
Bennelong
Macarthur
Gilmore
and one of:Eden Monaro; Dobell; Page; Greenway
and co-alition to lose two of: Hughes; Paterson; Cowper; Calare, Parkes (Ind)
5 gains for the co-alition; total 12 so far
WA: Labor to lose
Hasluck
Swan
2 gains for the co-alition; total 14 so far
VIC: Labor to lose
Corangamite
Melbourne (Green)
VIC: Coalition to lose
McEwan
La Trobe
Dunkley
Macmillan
3 gains to ALP in VIC and 1 loss to Greens; coalition net gain of 11 so far
SA: Co-alition to lose
Boothby
coalition net gain of 10.
Other: Solomon could go either way. I think the ALP will win it but with no confidence.
My outside tips: Richmond to go LNP possibly; Swan to have a big struggle in his seat of Lilley.
Net result:
co-alition 69
Labor 77
ind 3
Green 1
I have said there will be 25 seats changing hands. The average since the 1970’s has been 18. I think it will be a little more given the issues in QLD and NSW. I still expect the ALP to win though overall as most have predicted. They could win by a higher amount if less seats change hands, but I don’t expect a landslide to either party.
2PP vote to be 51.5/48.5 to the ALP.
If the ALP lose Eden Monaro (which is expected) ALP will lose the election, yippee!!!
Has Xenophon said why he hasn’t endorsed a candidate for the Senate in this election? Based on previous performance you’d think they’d be looking pretty good for a seat.
hey 100.3 class guys
1.which party will win and by how much?
2. Who is the prefered PM?
3. What % of votes will the greens win?
4.Which seats are the most important?
5.How many seats will the greens win, Labour win, Liberal win and Independent party ?
For some reason think the ALP will do much better than predicted,
ALP 89- holding Melbourne.
LNP 57
IND 4
Glenn A – If the ALP lose Eden Monaro (which is expected) ALP will lose the election, yippee
Expected to lose?????? Gee I wish you were right there. I don’t know where you are getting that from. All the polling I have seen suggests an ALP win, however, most of this polling would be in the main coastal centres which are ALP dominant anyway.
I’m a co-alition supporter, but I don’t even think they will win this one.
DB,
Gillard was campaigning there yesterday, so it might still be in play
The ALP will not lose Eden Monaro, they have a better chance of retaining it than losing the election. Mike Kelly has built up a strong personal vote in the seat. I don’t want to burst anyones bubble but seats like Lindsay and Eden Monaro are just seats, they have no mystical attributes.
Eden-Monaro will stay with the ALP I reckon – it is now much more linked into Canberra economically and socially than it is to Sydney.
By the way on polling Eden-Monaro – the poll will have been checked to ensure it is representative demographically. that said it is a difficult having three distinct sub regions within it – mind you that might mean that the polls could understate the Green vote as there are some concentrations of Green strength in the rural areas.
Doug, I think with the 3 distinct sub-regions as you say, that it makes it the true bell-whether seat. On current boundaries the Libs need a 2.3% swing to get it and need a 2.4% swing nationally to win. I don’t think much has changed in 3 years. The Queenbeyan area is Labor, the Bega area is Liberal and coast varies. A true bellwhether for mine.
I am an Eden-Monaro voter and I have my fingers crossed that you are right. Mike Kelly has been a great representative.
ACT Senate will be interesting. Pretty much Humphries has not been helped by the constant attacks on the public service and this would also affect Eden-Monaro as a fair number of people who work for Dept of Defence live in the Queanbeyan area.
I’m predicting the Nationals to pick up O’Connor. Decline in ALP primary vote due to mining tax talk + Nationals being well funded and talking up Royalties for Regions. Nationals come 2nd and they win on Greens and ALP preferences esp as they have been banging on about not sitting in the joint party room.
I don’t know whether the public service thing is such a big deal. Oppositions and new Governments ALWAYS talk about cutting “fat cats” (Rudd did it in 2007) but always end up bloating out the public service even more.
It doesn’t look like I’ll be able to finish posting predictions on individual seats, as someone severed a cable somewhere and my ISP’s broadband has been off since midday, with no idea when it’ll be repaired, and I’m using a very intermittent wireless signal. If it’s back on in the next hour or two I’ll finish it off.
My overall prediction:
ALP – 80
Coalition – 66
Greens – 1
Independents – 3
Labor gains: La Trobe, McEwen.
Coalition gains: Bass (think I might be wrong there, but may well be wrong about Bennelong, so that cancels each other out on the total), Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson, Swan.
Greens gain Melbourne. Liberals to hold O’Connor (unless ALP is preferencing them ahead of Libs, but even so, Greens are putting Nats last, which could make the crucial difference), and Libs to possibly gain Riverina.
MDMConnell – I think it’s different this time. 12,000 “non-frontline” jobs is a big deal. “Non-frontline” is policy and programs which is based in Canberra and it has the local business lobby concerned. The Greens are running on protecting jobs and Canberra’s economy. It’s a bit strange. Historical context is Howard said 2,500 when he first got elected but retrenched 30,000 and the entire region went into recession while the country was still growing. Never happened before. Job freeze also means no promotions or ability to change to a job in another agency.
Nick C – according to the Greens HTV, Nationals are preference No.5. in O’Connor while Libs are No.8. It’s http://greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/WA-Statewide.pdf
Oh sorry Oz, I must’ve got it confused with something else. I did look at that the other day.
Thankfully my broadband is back on.
Worst … election … campaign … ever.
If Labor lose they have no one else but themselves to blame. They’re up against Tony Abbott for craps sake!
The greens have done their usual local grassroots campaign and has been successful to some extent. I still don’t believe the polls when they say the Greens are at 14% or there abouts. I will be ecstatic if we were to poll double figures nationally.
hope your right…… Labor more likely to win Dunkley than Mcmillan in Vic
Canning in Wa could shift
Boothby & Sturt more likely to remain Liberal
Greens unlikely to win in AcT senate
Suspect Labor will keep one of Leichhardt, Dawson or Flynn
Agree for the most part Libs will retain their notional seats such as Gilmore
cowper & Patterson may be in play?
Senate
QLD – 3 LNP, 2 Lab, 1 Green
NSW – 3 Coalition, 3 Lab
Victoria – 3 Lab, 2 Coalition, 1 Green
Tasmania 3 Lab, 2 Coalition, 1 Green
SA – 3 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Green
WA – 3 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Green
ACT – 1 Lab, 1 Green
NT – 1 Lab, 1 Lib
Agree with you Joel, this was an awful campaign, though from a purely psephological perspective it does make for a fascinating contest, since it’s so uncertain as to what will happen.
Agree the polls look unrealistically high for the Greens, but we’ve been getting a very positive response on the streets in my area this week, so who knows.
On the subject of polls, that well-regarded barometer of WA voter sentiment, the Miss Maud’s Coffee Bean Poll, has produced a rather poor result for Labor. Final results put the Liberals on 44%, Labor on 29%, and the Greens on 14%.
QLD
Definite LNP gains- Flynn, Dickson
Probable LNP gains- Leichardt, Forde, Dawson, Herbert
Pure toss ups- Petrie, Bonner
Labor holds onto Moreton, Blair, Brisbane, Longman. No Labor gains.
Overall big swing in QLD to LNP, of 4-6%
NSW
Definite Liberal gains- Macarthur, Gilmore
Probable Liberal gains- Robertson, Macquarie, Bennelong
Pure toss ups- Lindsay, Cowper (Lib held), Paterson (Lib held)
Labor holds onto Dobell, Greenway, Page, Eden Monaro.
Overall, swing in NSW to Coalition will resemble swing across country. Big swings in Western Sydney to Libs, tiny swing overall to Labor on North Coast
VICTORIA
No definete gains for either party
Probable Labor gains- La Trobe, McEwen
Probable Green gain- Melbourne
Pure toss ups- Dunkley, Corangamite
Overall, swing of 3-6% to Labor
Tasmania
No change. Overall, swing to Labor of 5-8%
Northern Territory
No definete gains
Probable Liberal gain- Solomon
Overall, small swing to LNP
Canberra
No Change
South Australia
No definite gains
Pure toss up- Boothby
Liberals hold onto Sturt, Mayo
Overall, swing to Labor of 2-4%. Labor will give the Liberals a run for their money in Mayo, could even be biggest surprise of election
Western Australia
Definite Liberal gain- Swan
Pure toss ups- Canning, Hasluck
Labor holds onto Brand
Overall, small swing to LNP, however expect to see a small swing to Labor in several seats.
Note: All based notionally
Greens will easily poll double digits in HoR and Senate nationally and break the confected 10% ceiling.
That’s all I’m willing to predict, although I tend to think The Greens have a better chance in the ACT than you do Ben.
Look at Centrebet mate. If the ALP couldn’t win Boothby in 2007, why can they win it now?
Also, Maxine hasn’t worked hard enough to be re-elected in Bennelong.
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