One day to go: election predictions

By
Ben Raue
 – August 20, 2010

Ever since I started this blog, I’ve had a tradition of making last-minute predictions of election results, recklessly making predictions about how individual seats would fall.

I’ve quickly done one for tomorrow’s federal election. I notice it’s quite similar to William Bowe’s over at Poll Bludger, although I have the ALP winning one more seat: McMillan in Victoria.

My House of Representatives prediction: 80 Labor (down eight), 66 Coalition (up seven), 3 independents and one Green (up one).

My Senate prediction: 34 Coalition (down three), 33 Labor (up one), 8 Greens (up three) and one independent.

Generally my feeling is we will see very different swings between states, with Labor losing ground in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, and gaining ground in Victoria and South Australia.

I predict that the ALP will gain four seats. They should pick up the seat of Boothby in South Australia, that would likely have been won in 2007 if not for a poor campaign by the ALP. In Victoria I’m also expecting to see a surprisingly large swing to the ALP. Unfortunately for Labor, there are not many marginal seats available after La Trobe and McEwen fall on small swings. I’ve actually predicted that McMillan could fall, not that I know a great deal about the local circumstances there, but because I think the swing to the ALP in Victoria could put seats like McMillan in play. I also think the Greens will gain the seat of Melbourne off the ALP, but will fall short in Sydney and Grayndler. Having said that, I expect to see Grayndler improve its position and possibly draw even or overtake Sydney in terms of the future swing needed for the Greens to win.

The ALP should be able to solidly hold onto all nine seats in Tasmania and the territories, including the marginals of Solomon, Bass and Braddon.

Apart from Melbourne, I expect the ALP to lose eleven seats to the Coalition in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

In New South Wales, sitting Liberal MPs should be able to overturn notional Labor majorities in Gilmore and Macquarie, and the new Liberal candidate in Macarthur should be able to do likewise. I also predict that the ALP will lose Robertson after Belinda Neal’s shaky hold on the seat for the last term. I can’t see the ALP losing marginals like Bennelong, Page or Eden-Monaro.

In Western Australia, I think we’ll see Labor lose Swan and Hasluck.

In Queensland, the LNP should hold onto the notional Labor seats of Herbert and Dickson, and regain Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn. In Longman, I expect that the anti-Labor surge won’t be enough to make up for poor candidate selection.

In the Senate, I’m expecting the Greens to gain three seats on the east coast, giving them a solid hold on the balance of power. I am predicting an overall Senate balance of 34 Coalition, 33 Labor, 8 Greens and Senator Xenophon.

In New South Wales, I expect the Greens vote to be high enough to put them well ahead of the third Labor candidate, producing a 3-2-1 split favouring the Coalition.

In Victoria, however, a swing to the ALP and a high Greens vote could well produce a 3-2-1 split in favour of the ALP, reversing the 4-2 right majority of 2004. This would see both Family First and the Coalition lose a seat in Victoria.

In Queensland, I expect the Labor vote to be low enough for the Greens, with a solid primary vote in the low double digits, to overtake and win the seat.

In Western Australia, a low Labor vote will allow the Greens’ Rachel Siewert to win re-election.

In South Australia, I expect that an increased Greens vote will not make up for the absence of Nick Xenophon. With the major party votes restored to their former position, I think it will be hard for the Greens to win.

In Tasmania, Christine Milne should easily win re-election. I predict that the ALP will again win three seats.

In the ACT, I expect to see the Liberals’ vote fall further, but not far enough for the Greens to win. I expect the Democrats’ decision to preference the Liberal Party will be enough to hold on to the seat, although below the line voting in a small field could change that result.

Please post your own predictions below.