Via Pollbludger, reports out of Western Australia suggest that by-elections may be imminent in the seats of two of the former Labor government’s biggest figures: former Premier Alan Carpenter in Willagee and former Attorney-General Jim McGinty in the neighbouring seat of Fremantle. Pollbludger quotes from the Fremantle Herald, saying:
In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.
Junkies will remember the experience of election night last September as Antony Green’s computer flicked back and forth between a Labor win and a Greens win, due to erratic data entry from the WAEC. Whenever the Greens overtook the Liberals, they were calculated to win the seat. With the Liberals likely to avoid running in a Fremantle by-election, the Greens would be in with a very strong chance to win the seat. Rumours suggest by-elections could be held in parallel with a statewide referendum on daylight savings on May 16.
Updates: Bird of paradox in comments has given some greater information about the layout of Fremantle, and fascinating prospect of a popular centre-left local mayor running as an independent in a seat where Labor, Liberal and Greens all have about 1/3 of support, producing a complete free-for-all. He’s done a notional two-party-preferred vote for each of the 11 booths, coming out with 5 Labor booths, 5 Greens booths and 1 Liberal booth. I’ve turned these into a map of the electorate, although I’ve excluded Rottnest Island (where very few votes are cast, with the Greens coming first with 26 votes).
[geo_mashup_map add_overview_control="false" zoom=12 add_map_type_control="true"]
G’day Ben. Hope you don’t mind a bit of a text dump…
Fremantle’s a very hard / interesting seat to analyse, beause there’s so much variability in the seat from East Freo / Bicton (rich, on the river, Libs do well) down through Freo and South Freo (full of yuppies, Greens do well) and down to Hami Hill / Spearwood (bogans, ALP does well).
I did a quick and dirty distribution of the vote last election in Excel the other day, with prefs like so: CDP -> Lib (then 0.5 ALP, 0.5 Grn); FF -> 0.5 Lib, 0.5 Grn (then all to Lib); Lib -> 0.8 Grn, 0.2 ALP; and ALP -> 0.8 Grn, 0.2 Lib. Of the 11 booths, you can divide them into two regions. Here’s what Excel spat out:
~~~~~
Richmond Primary School: Lib 5.0 v ALP
Anglican Church Hall: ALP 3.2 v Lib
Palmyra Primary School: ALP 10.7 v Lib
Phoenix Primary School: ALP 15.0 v Lib
Winterfold Primary School: ALP 16.3 v Lib
The first two are in East Freo, so the Libs do well. In Palmyra (next suburb away from the river), the Greens start ahead of the Libs but the CDP/FF prefs would put the Libs in front; a small pertubation would make that a small ALP margin v Grn. The last two are typical lower-class outer suburbs (quite a way from the first three), so huge ALP v Lib margin.
~~~~~
White Gum Valley Primary School: ALP 2.4 v Grn
Beaconsfield Primary School: Grn 5.7 v ALP
East Fremantle Primary School: Grn 5.9 v ALP
Fremantle Town Hall: Grn 6.3 v ALP
Rottnest Island Picture Hall: Grn 8.2 v ALP
Fremantle Primary School: Grn 8.4 v ALP
Note: Rotto is tiny, only 64 votes. White Gum Valley has the worst mainland vote of the lot for the Libs (18%) and the best for the ALP (44%), so that’s how ALP beat the Greens.
~~~~~
Of course, all the above is a bit pointless if (1) the Libs don’t run, and (2) Tagliaferri does, but it is kinda interesting.
If Tagliaferri runs as an independent, how much support does he get? Because if he polls less than the Greens he could be just the thing to split the ALP vote.
It’s impossible to say. He got about 60% in the mayoral election back in 2005, but local government isn’t politicised in WA , so there’s no ALP or Green vote to compare with. He’d probably get most support in the City of Fremantle, which doesn’t overlap the division neatly – it includes North Freo (across the river, the one booth the ALP win in Colin Barnett’s seat) and doesn’t include East Freo or Hami Hill (East Freo and Cockburn councils respectively). A union hack like Dave Kelly (ALP Left) vs Carles (Green) vs Tagliaferri (Ind) will be fascinating, and absolutely impossible to predict… the Liberals might as well not bother if that happens.
“..the Liberals might as well not bother if that happens”
The Liberals wouldn’t bother anyway, would they? Governments are never enthusiastic about by-elections in a safe Opposition seats. Especially if they figure the best way to damage Labor is by encouraging a vote for the Greens and/or a left-independent.
A note that McGinty has now announced that he will retire. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/03/2533773.htm