Penrith by-election live

10

8:40 – The two largest swings in by-elections in NSW were 23% in Ryde and 21.8% in Cabramatta, both in 2008 after Morris Iemma’s resignation.

8:29 – The Greens apparently got 23% in Hawkesbury Council’s by-election, up from 10% in 2008. The Liberals have won the seat, giving them a majority.

7:49 – With about half the booths in, the Greens vote is doubling across the board, with some places showing a tripling of the vote. The Greens have come second in two booths: Lapstone and Blaxland High, both in the Mountains. Antony Green estimates a two-party preferred swing of 27.5%

7:29 – The Greens came second in Blaxland High, winning 22% to 20% for the ALP, with the Liberals way out in front on 45%. Greens are generally doubling their vote in the three booths we have seen so far.

7:26 – Greens on 10.2% in Melrose (up 5.5%) and Libs on 55% primary.

6:29 – I spent the largest part of this morning at Jamison High School. This large booth only had one interest, meaning a huge number of booth workers were crammed into a small area. Greens MP Lee Rhiannon counted 17 Liberal booth workers all at the one gate at one point. At one point, the booth was home to four candidates, as well as Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Lee Rhiannon and Marise Payne.

6:21 – Polling booth story: Greens activist Jarah Crook got told by Premier Keneally to “let the adults talk together”. Jarah may only be 14, but he’s been handing out since he was 7.

5:50 – I’m at the Greens party at the Red Cow in Penrith now. I’ll try and throw in some stories while we wait for results.

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10 COMMENTS

  1. You say there were 4 candidates there at once, are candidates allowed to campaign on voting day in NSW? Or were they all coincidentally voting at the same place at the same time?

  2. Hey Ben, I wouldve been with you at the Red Cow, but as you probably know I am at the Hawkesbury Council By-election after party. Its been a big day here in Hawkesbury. If you don’t mind I might post the occassional update on the results for the Hawkesbury where the ALP did not run.

  3. @Dale – I believe candidates are allowed to campaign in most places on polling day (if not all of them – maybe that’s not the case in some local or state areas), including handing out HTVs to voters. It’s definitely allowed at a federal, state and local level (where there are attendance elections) in Victoria.

  4. Ben, if it’s not too hard a question, if this 8-9 swing to the Greens, and this ~23% swing away from the ALP were to be repeated uniformly at a full election, what seats could the Greens hope to pick up? Or would we have to wait to see how preference flows are allocated before you could determine that?

  5. Ben,
    enjoying the live coverage of yours and Antony Green’s live tweets. Should be encouraging result for inner city candidates and seems in line with national polling
    Well done Penrith Greens!

  6. Hawkesbury: 23.3% with 3 booths to come in. Liberals with over 50%. Awesome result for the Greens.

  7. Charles,

    It’s interesting to note that the Greens vote has grown by the most in our best booths. While we gained swings across the seat, the four biggest were in the four Blue Mountains. It suggests to me that we are looking at larger swings in our stronger areas, such as the inner city and the Mountains. I still think Balmain and Marrickville are the two key winnable seats, but Coogee and Blue Mountains could easily see the ALP fall into third place and the Greens positioned as the primary opposition to the Liberals in the future.

  8. Please be cautious about extrapolating national trends from a byelection where the member has resigned on corruption issues and the government is on the nose. Both Greens and Tories are scenting victory. Well where else would the vote go?

    I don’t mind the ALP losing a byelection by a giant margin, but now we will have millions of words from every pundit and proselytizer in the land on this somehow being a catalyzing moment for dingbat O’Farrell and that nasty turd Abbott. Urk

Comments are closed.