Queensland election – state of play one day later

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I was planning a deeper analysis looking at the proportion of votes which have reported, and what it tells us about how low the turnout was on election day but unfortunately I’ve had some issues with the data coming out of the ECQ, so I’m going to keep this post a bit simpler as a summary of what we know.

It looks likely that Adrian Schrinner has been elected to his own term as lord mayor, a fifth term in a row for the Liberal National Party. His primary vote has been climbing as more votes have reported, and he now sits on 47.2% of the primary vote, with Labor’s Pat Condren trailing on 31.1%. This translates into a swing of 6.3% against the LNP and 0.9% against Labor.

The Greens appear to have performed well all across this election, which was somewhat obscured by the technical difficulties in election results last night and a presumption that some results were skewed early on. The Greens lord mayoral candidate Kath Angus is currently on 15.6%, a swing of 5.4% compared to 2016.

About 60% of turnout has been counted so far in the mayoral race, and the sample is fairly even across the city (although Calamvale is very underrepresented in the sample).

We don’t have a preference count yet but it looks certain that Schrinner will win with a reduced majority.

The Greens also did well in a number of key wards. Sitting Greens councillor Jonathan Sri is sitting on 48% of the primary vote: a swing of 15%. We don’t have a preference count but he should have no trouble clearing the 50% barrier.

The Greens also gained a large swing in Paddington ward, which overlaps with the Greens state seat of Maiwar. Donna Burns gained a 10.9% swing. We will need the preference count to know who wins here – the ABC’s preference estimates predict the race is too close to call. The Greens have also moved into second place in the Central ward but will need to do well on preferences to win.

At the moment the LNP has won twelve wards, Labor has won five and others have won two. This leaves seven in play.

Apart from Paddington, there are six other contests still not decided.

The ABC has the LNP leading in Bracken Ridge, Central, Holland Park and Northgate, while Labor is leading in Calamvale and Enoggera, but it’s important to emphasise that these are all based on preference estimates: we still don’t have preference flows in any of these seats. We are also still missing most pre-poll figures and the postal votes are yet to be counted.

These early votes make up a massive part of the electorate, and we don’t know how different they will look in the current environment. It’s conceivable they could shift some of these races back to the LNP.

We also don’t know what impact the lack of how-to-votes will have on preference estimates, but there have been reports of Greens preference flows to Labor in Currumbin being weaker than you would expect in such a race.

If those seven undecided wards all go to the leading party that will result in a council with two more Labor councillors than the current council, and will leave Labor slightly closer to taking control of the council, but won’t materially impact on the LNP’s grip on power.

I will return to this topic once we have more information, later in the week.

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12 COMMENTS

  1. I’d like to know something about those who did not vote. Were the characteristics of the group such that their voting pattern would probably have been in line with that of those who did vote? Or did their absence mean an apparent lessening of support for one particular party or another? How might inclusion of their anticipated voting pattern change apparent “swings”? There appears to have been a significant swing to the Greens? Had the election been held in normal times when most people would have voted, would such a swing still have been apparent? Does this election tell us anything about how results might be different were we to change to a system of optional rather than compulsory voting?

  2. Am I miss something here. The ABC site appears to be calling some seats to the LNP that in my opinion are still in play. These are seats that are 3 horse races with a greens candidate. Bracken Ridge and Northgate just as examples. Can only assume green preferences will flow mainly towards labor.

  3. Do you think it would have made a difference to outcome is state government pushed okkn with compulsory preferencing in council elections?

  4. IMO Compulsory Preferential looks like it might have gained Labor 3 seats and Greens 2 seats, all at the expense of LNP.

  5. Ben, as of now its starting to look even more like a status quo election. There is a good probability that zero seats will change hands, leaving the makeup of the chamber completely unchanged. Some members has swings away from them and some to them, but no new arrivals or departures. And Pat Condren’s primary of 31.0% represents a 0.9% swing against the 31.9% achieved by Rod Harding in 2016. Sadly, many of us are going to be left wondering in a couple of days, “what did all that hard work achieve?”

  6. Benee,
    Agreed. The inability of ALP Apparatchiks to explain Preferential voting to their support base is now costing ALP seats on BCC.

    Andrew Bartlett has stated that ALP and Greens exchanged preferences.

    Why then did the Libs gain the advantage?
    Not so much where? Or did they? But why?
    Is it indolence? Pig headed ness or You can not tell me what to do ? Stupidity? Or is it growing recognition amongst ALP voters outside the inner city that Libs are less of a threat to our standard of living than Green’s political party.

  7. Andrew Jackson –

    It seems to be a fairly consistent voting behaviour that roughly half the population doesn’t bother with preferences when they don’t have to. More precisely, they’ll do no more than what the ballot paper requires of them.

    As for Labor voters preferencing LNP over Greens, surely they’d be doing that at compulsory-pref elections too. Labor preferences in Maiwar split 80-20 to the Greens in 2017.

  8. Alex J
    The figures that I have received from a Moreton Bay scruitineer is that 10% approx have Allocated preferences not nevcessarlly to exhaustion. If Pref Are allocated at that % my prediction is Flannery will win. If your figure of 50% is accurate Thompson will win. Based on my assumptions of 5% of Shields and Teasdale and 50% of Raedel’s voters preferring Flannery over Thompson.

  9. Andrew – OK, fair enough.
    It’s 50% in Brisbane City among Labor and Greens voters, who both were encouraged to preference. Makes sense that it would be much lower in Moreton Bay where all 5 Mayoral candidates said “just vote #1”.

  10. So far figures I have seen for Moreton Bay candidates are 20% and 30% allocation of preferences but ECQ is horrendously slow in updating web site. I have seen figures released by one candidates scrutineers on Saturday that have not yet made it o to website.
    Readers on this site will be well aware that I have previously been highly supportive of Australia’s Electoral Commissions but
    This election has been bsdly run from start to finish.

  11. You need to remember no one was on polling booths handing out how to votes. So there would be a a huge impact on people preferencing at all, let alone following the how to vote.

  12. Correct in Moreton Bay preferencing from two lowest candidates was about 20% (Shields) and 30% (Teasdale) ECQ have not released info some 72 plus hours after one scrutineer revealed figures. They have however revealed names of all successful candidates.

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